FanDuel Quick Picks for NFL Week 3
By the time it takes you to read this article countless numbers of Americans will have already been exposed to millions upon millions of FanDuel and DraftKings commercials today. I told my mother, aged 67, that I won some money playing Fanduel, and she knew what I was talking about! It is a full-fledged revolution, and in this writer’s opinion, second only to the one in 1776. The purpose of my articles are two-fold. One is to provide some philosophical insight into behavioral tendencies of FanDuel players. I will study my own behavior as well as the behaviors of the FanDuel community. Why was I so high on Austin Seferian-Jenkins last week? What is my obsession with David Johnson on the Cardinals? These behaviors are often destructive in FanDuel and I’m sure you exhibit some of them too. My second purpose is to provide you with FanDuel tips early in the week so that you can begin to make your plan. For me, it’s a week long process. It starts Tuesday morning, usually in the one place I can lock the door sit down and have some quiet time (you Dads out there know exactly where I’m talking about). There is always a follow up session later in the day, sometimes three or four depending on what I eat for dinner that day! I will present to you every Wednesday players that have caught my eye based on matchups, price value, and observations made from the prior week. I hope you will react to my “Quick Picks” and challenge me. Doing so, will only make both of our lineups better. Thank-you for taking the time to read.
Quick Tip #1 (behavioral) – When playing in a Thursday FanDuel tournament pick only one Thursday player or none at all. I’ve noticed the impulsivity of FanDuel players. That same impulsivity lies within you as well. Scenario: There is a Thursday night game and you want to watch it but in your other fantasy leagues you don’t have any players. What do you do? You load up a FanDuel lineup with Thursday night players so that you have something to watch and get excited about. Suddenly, Rueben Randle looks like a great bargain. In your head he is finally having his breakout game and you remember seeing an article in the newspaper (online of course, not an actual newspaper) that Eli wants to get him more involved. They just released Preston Parker, more targets for Rueben! Fast forward to later that night, Rueben has 2 catches for 17 yards and you are stuck with him. Let other people load up on Thursday players. You can basically eliminate from contention all those that do.
Quick Tip #2 (Player Pick) – Let TE Jordan Reed ($5300) be your only player chosen from the Thursday night game. This will take extreme discipline as you will want to take Odell Beckham Jr. after he torched the Redskins last year and is coming off of a great week. If he’s your guy, by all means take him. However, you should be aware that the Redskins pass defense has been really good thus far, and they are a much more physical team than the Giants are. Back to Jordan Reed, Kirk Cousins has targeted him a team leading 17 times, weeks one and two combined, and he’s played 85% of snaps. Last week he did well against a formidable Rams Defense to the tune of 6 targets, 6 catches, and 82 yards. He is clearly Kirk Cousins favorite target in the air with Desean Jackson out of action. The Giants defense is terrible at stopping opposing teams’ tight ends as they were torched by both Dallas TE’s and Jacob Tamme last week. At $5300, I think you can get Travis Kelce production at a cheaper price.
Quick Tip #3 (Behavioral) – Stop picking random stud performers from last week thinking they will repeat their performance. Try to think of each week as an entirely new entity all by itself. Isn’t that why we like FanDuel in the first place? Last weeks’ failures are gone but so are the successes. You missed out on Larry Fitzgerald. Pick him this week and you will lose. What you’re really missing though is the key information. The Bears are really bad and will continue to get worse each week. They are on 2-3 year plan and most of that plan does not involve their current terrible players. Try to find a starter or two that play the Bears each week.
Quick Tip #4 (Player Pick) – I’m not afraid to pay for my defense in FanDuel because that separates winning teams from losing teams. I like the Seahawks Defense at $5300. Any time I’ve ever won money in FanDuel I’ve always had a great performing defense. If you’ve been overlooking defenses and just fitting in whatever money you can afford at the end you must stop immediately. The Seahawks are 0-2, Jimmy Graham is running his mouth, and they are going to take out all of their frustration on the Bears at home. Jay Cutler is out, although I almost prefer Mr. Turnover to be playing, Jimmy Clausen is in, and none of that matters anyhow because the Hawks D will score you lots of points this week. The Arizona Cardinals Defense scored 18 FanDuel points against them last week in Chicago. Just imagine what the Seahawks will do to them this week.
Quick Tip #5 (Player Pick) – What can Brown do for you? Ah, the inevitable Antonio Brown pun. It works too well not to use. The first thing I do with my FanDuel lineups is go click on Antonio Brown and insert him into my lineup. I’m going to stick with that until Martavius Bryant comes back because I may want to see if there is any hinderance to Brown’s stats. There probably won’t be. Antonio Brown is the model of consistency. I love having him in all my lineups for that guaranteed 20+ point total. Last week he was used in 26% of FanDuel lineups. I generally like to find guys that are used in less lineups, for example, DeAngelo Williams was used in only 4.3% of lineups last Sunday. Pure Gold. With Antonio Brown I look at it this way. If he’s owned by 26% of the people, 74% are NOT using him. Since FanDuel roughly pays out on the top 25%, I’m using Antonio Brown every week because I feel like I have an advantage over 74% of the people. This is the math they should be teaching in our public schools! Last week Antonio Brown rewarded me with a wonderous 9-195-1 line. Have him in all of your lineups every week.
I’d like to end my article each week with a few long shots suggestions. Metaphorically speaking, these are the 50-1 shots in horse racing. Below are 5 longshots that have a chance to hit this week along with a small blurb about each one and their Fanduel price.
Fred Jackson – RB – $6000 – I wish he was cheaper but he’ll fit in nicely if you load up on stud WRs. Everyone is going to get a piece of that Chicago Bears pie and I could see Jackson racking up garbage time points.
David Johnson – RB – $6000 – He’s a man-child. This may be your last week to get him cheap. I know Ellington is coming back but he’s a little guy destined to get hurt over and over again. I wouldn’t hesitate to use him as my RB #2
Nelson Agholor – WR – $5300 – Very cheap and he should be that cheap. The guy has done very little. I’m expecting a little Jets letdown this week combined with some Chip Kelly desperation to get things right. Revis should be on Jordan Matthews so maybe Nelson breaks through. He did have a semi-respectable 6 targets last week.
Tyler Lockett – WR – $5000 – Maybe this longshot breaks a long TD. Who on the Bears can catch him?
Ryan Mallet – QB – $6300 – He had a respectable week last week. He’s cheap and a few touchdowns to DeAndre Hopkins and he can be a nice value play.
Thank you everyone for taking the time to read this. Please follow me on twitter @QuickRotoTips and feel free to offer feedback or to blame me if you take some of my advice and it all goes terribly.