Nine games in the NBA tonight and not one team is on the latter end is of a back-to-back. Do fresh legs for one star mean he’s worth his lofty price of $9,600? Teams are also getting ready to head into the playoffs so your value now lies in not only who’s starting, but also who is still getting a ton of minutes. Below I’ll break down all the must plays, stay aways and who’s in the bargain bin for tonights slate in the association.
Klay Thompson – SG ($6,800) vs Dallas Mavericks
Klay Thompson priced this low is something that needs to be exploited. After having a .571% field goal percentage last night (While throwing up 21 shot attempts), I expected his price to go up by more than $100. Over the last five games, the Mavericks have given up the 5th most DraftKings points to opposing shooting guards per game (48.9). Thompson has also been heating up beyond the arc, hitting 12 of his last 15 over the previous two games. Three pointers in DraftKings give you a nice little bonus too. Thompson is a no-brainer tonight.
DeMar DeRozan – SG ($7,800) @ Houston Rockets
Playing whoever James Harden is supposed to guard in DFS is almost automatic every time. It’s more automatic now more than ever. James Harden simply does not play defence. DeMar DeRozan has had success against the Rockets before, too. In their last matchup, 19 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists and two steals – he stuffed the stat sheet. Look for him to do the same thing tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo – SF ($9,600) @ Atlanta Hawks
Price-wise, Giannis Antetokounmpo represents the “best SF” on the board. He should be the biggest fade tonight. At his price, he needs about 58 points in order for him to hit value while placing in a GPP. Atlanta does an admirable job guarding opposing small forwards, giving up the 21st most DraftKings points per game over the last five (40.1). Fade off of the highly-owned Antetokounmpo.
LaMarcus Aldridge – PF ($7,100) vs Memphis Grizzlies
Everyone is going to own LaMarcus Aldridge tonight in cash and GPP’s. You need to fade off of him. There’s a good chance he only gets about 25 minutes against a beaten up Grizzlies squad after the Spurs get a 10+ point lead. His production has started to dip as well, only scoring eight points and pulling down five boards against the Heat on Wednesday. At $7,100, I don’t see Aldridge hitting value.
The Bargain Bin
Omri Casspi – SF ($4,200) vs Phoenix Suns
Sacramento players are great for DFS, awful if you expect them to win a lot. They score a ton. 106.4 points per game, good for third most in the league. They also give up a ton of points. 109.2 points against per game, the most in the league. Who’s second worst? The Suns at 107.6 points against per game. This game is going to be an absolute shootout where points are going to come from everywhere. Get in on the action by taking Casspi who has been getting fed constant minutes regardless if he’s starting or not.
Jerryd Bayless – PG ($3,800) @ Atlanta Hawks
The Bucks have a very shorthanded backcourt. No OJ Mayo, no Michael Carter-Williams, no Greivis Vasquez. Enter Jerryd Bayless. He’s the only experienced option left for Milwaukee and they’re forced to give him a ton of playing time. In 33 minutes against the Cavs in their last game, he put up 15 points and five rebounds. If he can get you anywhere between 19-23 points, that’s value for his price.
Thanks for reading! If you have any NBA DFS or season long questions, feel free to contact me via Twitter @BESTofMATT