David Wilson-The Secret is Out!

While Evan Silva was cautiously optimistic on David Wilson’s fantasy potential heading into 2013, other writers and experts are starting to pump up Wilson’s draft stock with every passing day.

For example, www.fftoolbox.com recently ran an article declaring Wilson their breakout player of the year.

“Like any high-upside running back, playing time is the key. Buffalo’s C.J. Spiller is a comparable talent who forfeited a lot of playing time earlier in his career to Fred Jackson. Spiller and Wilson both have freak-of-nature speed and athleticism. What separates the pair is Wilson’s incredible lower body strength and balance. He can absorb contact and bounce off would-be tacklers with ease. The second-year runner is a more natural running back who will require less grooming than Spiller, but took a few seasons to come into his own. Head-to-head, Wilson’s skill-set is better; however nothing is a given in the NFL. If theGiants opt to use Andre Brown frequently, Wilson has little chance to break into RB1 territory.”

The writer clearly has an affinity for Wilson being that they both went to Virginia Tech, but his points on Wilson’s explosiveness and comparisons to C.J. Spiller are what is driving his ADP up. I expect more and more sites and fantasy experts to jump on board with Wilson as the season draws closer. The part of the article that really jumps out is the forecast on Wilson’s ADP.

CURRENT ADP – 3.7 – Pick 31

PROJECTED SEPTEMBER ADP 2.4 – Pick 16

Wilson’s touchdown potential was questioned by many with Brown sharing the backfield, but Pro Football Focus and their guru of statistics@mikeclayNFL came up with a system of quantifying Wilson’s scoring potential based on his success rates from last year. While both NY Giant backs rank in the top ten of this overachievers model it’s important to note that Wilson’s ability to break runs or catches from anywhere on the field make his value higher than Brown’s fantasy value.

Overachievers

Mike Clay’s chart shows who overachieved compared to their relative opportunities last year. While advanced statistical analysis may be a bit much for the average fantasy football GM, others who are looking for that little bit extra to put them over the top should take notice. With Ahmad Bradshaw out of the picture I feel Wilson will become a force in fantasy football while Brown will be a nice flex play during bye weeks.

I wanted to bring this trend in Wilson’s ADP to everyone’s attention before you get blind-sided on draft day when Wilson doesn’t fall to you in the third round. While scouring expert mock drafts for tendencies and trends I was surprised when I noticed David Wilson was drafted 2.01, or 13th overall, in one particular expert mock draft. When the recap for round two of that particular draft was given by The Fake Football‘s @Chet_G he touched on the fact that there was no possible way for for @CDCarter13 to get Wilson with his next pick which wold have been 36th overall. While drafting Wilson at 13th overall is a reach at this point in the summer it could end up being right in the area where Wilson is drafted in late August or early September.

This article originally appeared at www.bigblueview.com on July 5th, 2013.