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Thursday Night NFL DFS Options

Thursday Night NFL DFS Options

Pittsburgh Steelers

Michael Vick (FanDuel 6700, DraftKings 5000)

Le’Veon Bell (FanDuel 8900, DraftKings 7700)

Antonio Brown (FanDuel 8900, DraftKings 9200)

Heath Miller (FanDuel 5500, DraftKings 3700)

Darrius Heyward-Bey (FanDuel 5100, DraftKings 3600)

Markus Wheaton (FanDuel 5000, DraftKings 3500)

Baltimore Ravens

Joe Flacco (FanDuel 8000, DraftKings 6000)

Justin Forsett (FanDuel 6700, DraftKings 6000)

Steve Smith (FanDuel 7300, DraftKings 6200)

Maxx Williams (FanDuel 4700, DraftKings 2500)

I’m a huge believer in getting exposure to the Thursday through Monday slates in NFL DFS.  Most of the public is eager to play and usually overplay the stars that happen to be playing on Thursday nights.  This week is no different as many lineups will feature Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, but those aren’t the players that will be in my lineups.  I am fading almost everyone in this game, but I will have Steve Smith in some Thursday start cash lineups and Maxx Williams in some GPP lineups with Crockett Gilmore out this week.

Smith has been a beast the last few weeks and his value is best on DraftKings where his volume and 10+ catch games get you the most bang for your DFS bucks.  Maxx Williams was targeted quite a bit after Gilmore left the game against the Bengals on Sunday and he looked good doing it.  Joe Flacco and Marc Trestman really like using the tight end behind the linebackers and in front of the safeties and Williams is at the minimum price this week on DK.  I even through him in some Thursday start GPPs on FanDuel even though I really like some TE match ups for other players this week.  If you need to root for someone tonight in DFS, your best bet is Steve Smith in cash games on DraftKings.

Good luck everyone and make sure to check back for my Stacks Post.

FantasyPros and FanDuel Week 2 DFAC Results

FantasyPros and FanDuel Week 2 DFAC Results


After a rough week 1 in the FantasyPros and FanDuel DFAC, I came back with a top 15 finish in week 2. I was very surprised I was able to cash with both of my running backs having sub-par days.  My running back selections weren’t my biggest issue on the week.  Two New Orleans Saints cost me big time as I had the under-performing Brandin Cooks and the minimum priced Zach Hocker in my lineup.  Playing Brandin Cooks cost me double because it meant I had to not stack Larry Fitzgerald with Carson Palmer in my lineup.  That mistake cost me 1st this week.  I could have had a zero point kicker and two bad running backs and still walked away with a win.  Bad, bad mistake by me.  Below you’ll see a side by side of my team and the winner’s team.

DFAC Week 2 Results

 

NFL DFS Week 3 DraftKings Podcast with Pat Mayo

NFL DFS Week 3 DraftKings Podcast with Pat Mayo

Pat Mayo (@thePME) of The FNTSY Sports Network, RotoeXperts, and DailyRoto stops by The Fantasy Coach Podcast to talk about NFL DFS Week 3 for DraftKings.  I promise we talk some strategy after catching up and exchanging the finer points on blogging and tagging posts. (I kid you not!)  After talking about this week’s hot-button issues like the NCAA going after college athletes for playing DFS  we delve into the week 3 slate.

First we discuss Thursday Night’s game between the Washington Redskins and the New York Giants and discuss if we want any exposure to the game or if we should play the Thursday start slate but fade the match up.  Kirk Cousins, Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, Matt Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. are discussed.

We then talk about paying up for Defense this week and how to go about setting your lineup if you are going to take Seattle at home against the Bears.

We discuss paying up for RBs this week versus taking low priced options.  Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, and Jamaal Charles are discussed versus the lower priced James Starks, Danny Woodhead, TJ Yeldon and Latavious Murray.

We touch on the big DFS game of the week as the Pittsburgh Steelers are visiting the St. Louis Rams.  Players discussed include, Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Nick Foles and Todd Gurley.

We talk about highly volatile tournament plays such as Torrey Smith and Ted Ginn Jr.

We discuss bankroll management.  Differentiating between building a tournament lineup versus a cash game lineup and discuss how hard it can be to stay on course.

Breaking Down Winning and Losing Lineups On DraftKings in Week 2

Breaking Down Winning and Losing Lineups On DraftKings in Week 2

Week 2 turned into a big Monday night sweat for me in most of my cash games on DraftKings.  It all came down to Eric Decker against a beat up Colts secondary for me to have a positive weekend in DFS.  Luckily the scenario that we had all hoped would play out did as Vontae Davis covered Brandon Marshall early in the game and Decker was running free against linebackers and practice squad level corners.  If Decker had not hurt his knee and if Davis hadn’t been injured he actually could have saved some of my weaker tournament lineups that missed the money by a few points.

The big story for me was injuries and the top wide receivers actually paying dividends.  I did not have any of Julio Jones or Antonio Brown and it hurt quite a bit.  The only positive was more people faded Rob Gronkowski because of their desire to get Julio and Antonio into their lineups, which gave me a big edge at TE.   My biggest mistake was having too much exposure to Brandin Cooks at home against Tampa Bay.  I was prepared for Cooks to break out this week, but I wasn’t about to pony up for Drew Brees after watching him dump it off again and again the week before.  Cooks and the Saints struggles as a team almost cost me big time.  Luckily Jordan Matthews caught a garbage time touchdown otherwise I would be writing this a little poorer than usual.  (Give a guy a break when he has triplets.)

Tevin Coleman’s injury really hurt my cash lineups.  I teamed him up with Marshawn Lynch and obviously Lynch under-performed, but I could have absorbed that a little easier if I didn’t lose Coleman to cracked ribs late int he first half against the Giants.  I’m wondering if people will shy away from Lynch in cash during week 3 after his performance against the Packers even though he is facing the lowly Chicago Bears Defense.  I was kicking myself a bit for not having any exposure to DeAngelo Williams in the last week before Le’Veon Bell came back from suspension, and also not at least taking Torrey Smith a bit with the 49ers having to keep up with that amazing Steelers O.

My best late swap was getting away from the Titans Defense completely and using the Cardinals and Patriots across the board.  Something about Jay Cutler makes me want to start a defense against him almost every week.  It’s too bad he won’t be healthy enough to face the Seahawks this week as he has a strained hamstring from chasing a defender this past Sunday.  I felt like Decker and Terrance Williams were going to be owned a bunch in cash games and really wanted to stay away from canceling out on defense when there were other good options.

My Strengths this week:  Zeroing in on Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger as my QBs and picking the right Defenses.

My Weakness this week:  Cash Game Running Backs, and not stacking (for some odd reason) in tournament lineups. (Larry Fitzgerald and Antonio Brown)

Some of the best post week breakdowns have been going up over at DraftKings Playbook.  Adam Levitan (formerly of Rotoworld) has written breakdowns of his cash game lineups the past two weeks that I believe they will really help people understand the difference between thinking about tournament lineup construction and cash game lineup construction.  This week he broke down some mistakes and you should definitely give it a look.
http://playbook.draftkings.com/nfl/nfl-cash-game-lineup-review-week-2/

Jonathan Bales (Author of Fantasy Sports for Smart People and Co-Founder of Fantasy Labs) broke down his winning DraftKings lineup in the higher stakes single entry DraftKings NFL World Championship Qualifier for week 2 in a video over at FantasyLabs.com.  I think it’s extremely important to pay attention to his reasoning for playing Dion Lewis against the Bills, putting Eric Decker in the Flex spot, and also taking the Patriots D.  This is god standard breakdown and it’s always fun to hear how a winning lineup was constructed.
http://www.fantasylabs.com/articles/draftkings-lineup-breakdown-week-2-championship-qualifier/

 

Week 1 NFL DFS Stacks for DraftKings

Week 1 NFL DFS Stacks for DraftKingsPile of Pancakes

Just a few short years ago the only stacks I was worried about on a Sunday morning was a huge pile of pancakes covered in butter and syrup.  I’m not kidding.  Now all week long I try and focus on what stacks may be the most profitable on Sundays in the biggest and best GPP tournaments Daily Fantasy Sports has to offer.  If you look back at some of the winners in last season’s millionaire makers and even the teams that had big time sweats there were variations of stacking that helped them lap the field.  Whether it was everyone’s favorite Boston sweat with a home town Patriots fan taking the entire offense to win himself a million bucks or it was the off the radar Joe “100 Million Dollar Man” Flacco and his Ravens receivers winning a million dollars.  Every week I’ll talk about my favorite stacks and even some offenses I wish I could stack, but ultimately can’t.

Dallas Cowboys Stack –

Tony Romo 7300 –  Romo is pretty mid-priced when it comes to week one QBs and it;’s almost too good to be true with the way he has played against the Giants the last few years.  The Giants are in even worse shape now then they were the last few years as they have a very suspect safety tandem to go along with a JPP-less pass rush.  The only thing holding me back from using Tony Romo more (besides my Giants fandom) is the fact that the Giants might be equally as bad against the run as they may start Markus Kuhn at DT and an undrafted FA rookie at MLB with Jon Beason out.

Dez Bryant 8700 – Dez Bryant gets up for games against the NFC East.  He demands the ball and he makes big plays.  He also is 500 cheaper than Odell Beckham Jr. on the Giants.  Dez is one of the players I am getting in my lineups even when I’m not stacking Cowboys.

Jason Witten 4000 – Witten kills the Giants.  The Giants usually play some form of cover 2 to help over the top with Dez Bryant and it leaves their linebackers exposed to the wiley veteran.  With Rob Gronkowski not available because he played on Thursday Witten gets a bump for me as far as playability and if you’re stacking Cowboys he can be a very good edition.

Terrance Williams 4000 vs. Cole Beasley 3400 – I have seen a lot of touting of Beasley as a solid option because of the Giants struggles at the slot corner position and with their safeties and linebackers not at their best.  I think he could have been a real key if the Giants were going to keep pace with the Cowboys or lead the Cowboys on Sunday, but I think the game may be more about the Cowboys controlling the Giants and the Giants struggling a bit with no Victor Cruz and a beat up offensive line.  Because of that i would rather go with Williams as an option make some big downfield plays off of play-action with inexperienced or over-aggressive safeties back there.

Arizona Cardinals Stack –

Carson Palmer 6500 – Palmer is coming back from major knee surgery, but has looked great this preseason.  He was borderline dominant early last year and has a ton of passing weapons at his disposal in Arizona.  This week he gets a very bad New Orleans Saints defense in a game where there may be some big time scoring as Drew Brees and company try to keep pace.

John Brown 4500 – Brown burst on the scene last season before struggling with out Carson Palmer in the lineup.  Brown has elite speed and actually worked with Carson Palmer all summer to get their timing down.  That bodes well as both a fantasy sleeper and as low priced/high upside play week one against a bad Saints secondary.

Larry Fitzgerald 5500 – Honestly I love his pricing this week and I love that he’ll be under owned because most think he’s almost done.  Last season Fitz excelled when Palmer was at the helm and he is a nice complement play as some people may stack Palmer and Brown and then go elsewhere to fill the rest of their squad.

Michael Floyd 5800 – Floyd is a bit over priced with the questions surrounding his injury.  If Floyd was completely healthy I would like him because of his big play ability, but in week one his injury status makes Fitz and Brown more appealing targets.

Philadelphia Eagles Stack

Sam Bradford 6900 – Bradford’s pricing is just about right if you consider the risk versus the reward with his injury history and newness to the offense.  The over under on the game is so high (54) that even if the Falcons defense did look improved, they don’t, you would target this game.  I’m tempted to instead cherry pick this game instead of stack because of the fact that it will be used a bunch.

Jordan Matthews 7200 – Matthews is going to be the go-to-guy this year fir the Eagles in the passing game.  With Matthews occupying the slot it means he will stay away from the Falcons best cover corner, Desmond Trufant.  I love Matthews this week and may be playing him even more over on FanDuel.

Nelson Agholor 5700 – I expect the rookie to be involved early and often, but his match up against Trufant actually means I may be more apt to avoid putting him in my stacks.

Brent Celek 2500 – With Zach Ertz a game time decision Brent Celek could become a nice option as a stackable punt play.  With the high over/under and increase in snaps and possible usage Celek becomes very intriguing. Plus he’ll be owned at less than 1%, which is nice.

Sneaky Stack***

Detroit Lions Stack –

Matthew Stafford 7000 – Stafford is everyone’s favorite whipping boy because of his inconsistency and his maddening mechanics, but he has put up huge games in the past.  If the Lions were opening at home I would expect the Lions stack to get a lot of looks, but because they are on the road they are going to be under used.  The pluses for Stafford are the return of a healthy Calvin Johnson, continued presence of Golden Tate and the additions of last year’s first round pick Eric Ebron and this year’s draft pick in Ameer Abdullah.

Ameer Abdullah 4000 – A running back in your stack?  Yep, Abdullah is going to be featured in the passing game and will get quite a few touches against a less than impressive defense.  Could make the Chargers look silly if he badly outplays Melvin Gordon.

Calvin Johnson 8500 – Let’s make this short…..he’s fricking Megatron!  No bigger ceiling on a WR than what Johnson has the potential to do on the field.

Golden Tate 6300 – Tate is 800 cheaper than Keenan Allen who’s on the other side of the ball this week.  The price is really inviting for a secondary option with big play ability.

Eric Ebron 2900 – Ebron will forever be one of the guys drafted ahead of Odell Beckham Jr., but he can do something to soften that image with a big sophomore season.   The reports have been pretty good on Ebron this off season and the release of Joseph Fauria has to be a pretty good sign that he’s going to get some snaps this year.  The reson I really like him is his ability to stretch the field in the seam and that could mean he makes a few big plays at a nice low price to make his DFS owners happy.

Who I’m Not Stacking and Why:

Miami Dolphins – I like Ryan Tannehill this week, but I have no clue who is going to get snaps and usage besides Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry int he Dolphins offense.  I want some clarity instead of throwing darts this week with as many good options as there are.

Green Bay Packers – Aaron Rodgers is never a bad option, but with Jordy Nelson out for the year and Randall Cobb nursing an AC Joint Sprain it makes playing a stack with the Packers difficult.  Especially with a bunch of the field owning the cheap Davante Adams.

Indianapolis Colts – I can actually see the headline now.  Ultimate Contrarian Play wins 2 MIL.  I’m not buying it, but I’m sure there will be lineups stacking Colts against the Bills knowing that people are shying away from the very tough Bills defense.

Week 16 NFL DFS with Renee Miller

Episode 053: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football: Week 16 NFL DFS Podcast (DraftKings and FanDuel Help)

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week 16 of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.

Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  

Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS 

It’s a Trap! at TheFakeFootball.com

rotoViz.com’s Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin and the Case Against Primacy Bias

Thank Yous For Episode 053:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week 16 of the NFL season.  Renee will be coming on the podcast every Wednesday night to prepare everyone for NFL DFS all season long.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

Week 15 NFL DFS with Renee Miller

Episode 052: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football: Week 15 NFL DFS Podcast (DraftKings and FanDuel Help)

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week 15 of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.

Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS 

rotoViz.com’s Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin and the Case Against Primacy Bias

Thank Yous For Episode 052:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week 15 of the NFL season.  Renee will be coming on the podcast every Wednesday night to prepare everyone for NFL DFS all season long.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

Week 14 NFL DFS with Renee Miller

Episode 051: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football: Week 14 NFL DFS Podcast (DraftKings and FanDuel Help)

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week 14 of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.

Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS 

rotoViz.com’s Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin and the Case Against Primacy Bias

Renee was recently on the DLF podcast with Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick) and Jarrett Behar (@EyeofTheGator)

Thank Yous For Episode 051:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week 14 of the NFL season.  Renee will be coming on the podcast every Wednesday night to prepare everyone for NFL DFS all season long.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

Week 12 NFL DFS with Renee Miller

Episode 049: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football: Week 12 NFL DFS Podcast (DraftKings and FanDuel Help)

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week 12 of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.

Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS

rotoViz.com’s Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin and the Case Against Primacy Bias

Renee was recently on the DLF podcast with Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick) and Jarrett Behar (@EyeofTheGator)

Thank Yous For Episode 049:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week twelve of the NFL season.  Renee will be coming on the podcast every Wednesday night to prepare everyone for NFL DFS all season long.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

Week 11 NFL DFS with Renee Miller

Episode 044: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Fantasy Football: Week 11 NFL DFS Podcast (DraftKings and FanDuel Help)

Featuring: Renee Miller (@ReneeMiller01)

About My GuestRenee Miller:  

Renee Miller, Ph.D. is a neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. She is an avid fantasy player, participating in multiple season long NFL, NBA, and MLB leagues. Her first love is Daily Fantasy Sports, which she writes about at RotoWorld, Pro Football Focus Fantasy, Fantasy Insiders, RotoWire, and The Fake Football. She occasionally contributes articles for season long fantasy football to RotoViz. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team? combines her  knowledge of neuroscience with her love of fantasy sports. It will give you new insight into how you approach fantasy decisions and help you to make the most logical and rationale choices.

Episode Summary:  Renee and I talk about the DFS slate for week 11 of the NFL season across DraftKings and Fanduel.

Download this episode as well as the previous three on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.   

Rene’s Latest Articles:  Rotoworld.com’s Fanduel Bargain Bin DFS

rotoViz.com’s Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin and the Case Against Primacy Bias

Renee was recently on the DLF podcast with Karl Safchick (@KarlSafchick) and Jarrett Behar (@EyeofTheGator)

Thank Yous For Episode 044:  I want to thank Renee for coming on the podcast and sharing her DFS insights for week eleven of the NFL season.  Renee will be coming on the podcast every Wednesday night to prepare everyone for NFL DFS all season long.  I would also like to thank C-Quel for providing the intro music as well as the outro beat.  You can Find all of C-Quel’s current music available here.

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