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DraftKings NBA DFS Studs and Values, November 17th

Tuesday’s slate includes a ton of high-tier talent. Three players are priced above $10,000 while five are $9,000 and higher. Which do you build your lineup around? Do you build around any? Let’s take a peek at some studs & values at each position for tonight’s games.

DraftKings NBA DFS Studs and Values, November 17th

By: Matt Best

PG

Stud: Kyle Lowry ($8,200) @ Golden State Warriors

Hear me out. Yes, the Raptors are facing the Warriors. Yes, those Warriors are undefeated. Yes, odds of the Raptors winning are 5:1. That doesn’t mean Kyle Lowry’s hot streak will stop. This game has the highest total point projection (207). Someone’s going to have to shoot the ball for the Raptors. Lowry is averaging 46.31 DK points per game. His counterpart (and the most expensive point guard at $10,700) Stephen Curry is averaging 52 DK points per game. Those 6 DK points aren’t worth the extra $2,500.

Value: Emmanuel Mudiay ($6,100) @ New Orleans Pelicans

Mudiay has been hit or miss this season (39.75 FP vs Milwaukee, 18.5 FP vs Oklahoma City). The good news is, he’s facing a horrific New Orleans defence (30th in total points against | 109.4 per game). The even better news? The Pelicans are pathetic at guarding the 1 (53.5 Average DraftKings points against per game). Opponents point guards shoot 46.1% from the field. This is perfect for Mudiay who’s had 44 shot attempts in his last three games.

 

SG

Stud: DeMar DeRozan ($7,300) @ Golden State Warriors

At $7,300, DeRozan is at the top for SG pricing. If Klay Thompson enters the lineup and has to guard DeRozan, DeMar might have a field day. Thompson has been dealing with a stiff back throughout the year and DeRozan has been explosive throughout the year. The Warriors give up an average of 41.6 DraftKings points to opposing shooting guards. Look for DeMar to join the party.

Value: Khris Middleton ($5,800) @ Washington Wizards

Minutes, minutes, minutes. He really should be called Khris Minuteston. Alright, I’ll stop. Middleton has played 40+ minutes in his last two games and he’s been heating up beyond the arc (4/7 over his last two games). Even with O.J. Mayo probable to make his season debut, expect his minutes to be limited.  The Wizards are most likely to be without Bradley Beal as he’s suffering from a bruised shoulder. In that case, Garrett Temple gets the start which means Middleton needs to be in your lineup.

 

SF

Stud: Carmelo Anthony ($8,500) vs Charlotte Hornets

Charlotte is inside the top ten for most DraftKings points given up to opposing small forwards (40.9). This bodes well for Anthony owners tonight as Melo has been on a scoring tear as of late. His last game out – 29 points, 13 rebounds while shooting 11-21 from the field. His attempts are there and so is the history against Charlotte. The last time Anthony faced the hornets, he had 29 points to go along with 6 rebounds to muster up 42.5 DraftKings Points. His counterpart, Marvin Williams, is dealing with a right pectoral strain. That won’t bode well against the already hard to guard Melo.

Value: Otto Porter ($5,400) vs Milwaukee Bucks

Porter is well on his way to a break out campaign. Porter hit the glass hard his last game out, picking up 10 rebounds against the Magic. Look for around the same production against a Bucks squad who gives up 8.3 RPG against opposing small forwards. Porter is getting a lions share of the minutes with Beal out of the lineup and the Bucks give up 20+ points to opposing SF’s. More minutes = more points. More points = more money for you.

PF

Stud: Greg Monroe ($8,100) @ Washington Wizards

Three. Straight. Double. Doubles. That’s all you should really need to know at this point. What you see is what you get with Monroe, and what you should see is a must play. The Wizards will have Marcin Gortat and his 14.51 Player Efficiency Rating go up against Monroe and his 24.93 PER. Bad news for Washington. Over the last five games, the Wiz have given up 53.2 DraftKings points per game on average against opposing power forwards. Get Monroe in your lineup.

Value: Thaddeus Young ($5,900) vs Atlanta Hawks

Thaddeus had his best game of the season against the best team in the league on Saturday, posting 26 points and 10 rebounds en-route to 50 DK points. Expect the mobile PF to take Paul Millsap on a shooting adventure. Opposing PF’s shoot 52.3% from the field and Young is certainly starting to shoot the ball more (22 FGA vs GS).

 

C

Stud: Andre Drummond ($9,900) vs Cleveland Cavaliers

When was the last time Andre Drummond failed to register a double double? April 13th. He was only one rebound away. The Drummond train has been rolling all season long and it’ll just continue to push through opponents. It’s next stop – Cleveland. Timofey Mozgof will get the first crack at slowing him down, but when that fails – Tristan Thompson will attempt to slow him down. Thompson had a season low 4 rebounds his last game out. Play Drummond.

Value: Andrew Bogut ($4,800) vs Toronto Raptors

Bogut has seen his minutes go higher and higher since coming back from a concussion. He saw a season high 32 minutes off the bench against Brooklyn while registering a double double and stuffing the stat sheet (10 points, 18 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks, 2 steals). Against a Toronto D who’s given up 61.0 DraftKings points against opposing centres, there’s no better opportunity for the old Bogut to continue to come back into form.

 

Bargain Bin:

PF – J.J. Hickson ($4,300)

SG – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($3,300)

PG – Dennis Schroder ($4,600)

Thank you for reading and don’t hesitate to reach out on Twitter (@BESTofMATT) with any last minute DraftKings line up questions.

 

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DraftKings NBA DFS Plays

DraftKings NBA DFS Plays

For October 29th 2014

Well the first big slate of NBA games is upon us and a lot of NBA DFS players are going to be surprised that DraftKings has eliminated multi-position eligibility to start the season.  The ability to fit in all of your favorite players will be greatly hampered, but it should actually help the average and beginner DFS player.  Why would this help me?  Because the better players who make a living playing this game fully understand just how thin each position is and where the best value to slot a player in would be.

My favorite plays tonight-

PG

Tony Wroten-Philadelphia 76ers- 4500-Wroten should be starting in the absence of Michael Carter-Williams and is a nice source for DFS points.  He’ll be facing a depleted Indiana Pacers and should have most of the offense run through him.  The lack of scorers and efficient shooters hurts his ceiling, but he should hit well above value.

Russell Westbrook– OKC Thunder- 10200-  When you’re looking at playing a player with this type of price tag you have to look at their ability to hit value.  The entire offense will run through Westbrook on the absence of Kevin Durant.  Westbrook has the ability to put up a triple double even with Durant in the lineup and without him he should approach one every night.  He may lose some easy assists without Durant there, but he will also pick up scoring and rebounds.  Reggie Jackson is also sidelined tonight, so his breaks will be short.

Derrick Rose– Chicago Bulls- 7400- Rose makes his return in New York and will want to put on a show.  With Jimmy Butler sidelined he could put up a very nice line with a decent discount.  Keep an eye on him for the utility slot if you can’t fade Westbrook.

SG-

Eric Bledsoe-Phoenix Suns- 7000- Bledsoe can put up numbers in bunches and gets the Lakers on the back end of a back to back.  I’m pretty sure we wouldn’t mind watching him fly by Jeremy Lin all night.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope-Detroit Pistons-3600- KCP had a big Summer League showing and looked like a solid play all preseason before he injured his knee.  With him healthy enough to play he should get decent minutes, especially with Jodie Meeks sidelined.  He will be the only outside shooter on the court for the Pistons.

SF- If you’re not going Melo at 9200 (which is a good buy) you have some nice punt options

CJ Miles- Indiana Pacers- 3800- Miles is starting at the shooting guard position and could also slide to the SF slot when Stuckey comes off the bench.  Stuckey is on a minutes limit and the Pacers starting roster looks bad to open the season, especially with George Hill sidelined.

Otto Porter Jr. – Washington Wizards- 3000-  Porter Jr. is going to see minutes at the two and the three on opening night and can contribute in a bunch of categories.  Wall needs a running mate with Beal sidelined and I like Porter Jr.’s opportunity tonight.

PF-

LaMarcus Aldridge– Portland Trailblazers-9200- The price seems a little low if you think about the numbers Aldridge puts up, but he does face an elite defender in Serge Ibaka tonight.  I don’t see a ton of upside in this play, but it’s pretty safe for a cash game.

Ed Davis-LA Lakers- 3900- Davis went for 11 ponts-6 rebounds-1 steal and 2 blocks yesterday against Houston and now will be counted on a lot more with Julius Randle going down.  Boozer isn’t getting any younger and might not be able to log that many minutes in the second game of a back to back.  Davis also gets to play the five and it doesn’t hurt him against the Suns who play small.

Marcus Morris-Phoenix Suns- 3600- The second Morris should start at the small forward position and play some four against the smallish Lakers.  Morris had a nice preseason and will want to have a good showing with the chance for him to grab a full time starting role.  He’s an interesting play with the rotation down a few players that could eat into his minutes.

C-

Al Jefferson– Charlotte Hornets- 9100- Big Al started out of the gates slowly last season, but in the second half he was one of the best DFS plays you could make, especially in cash games.  His big body should be hard to handle for the slender Larry Sanders and John Henson.

Mason Plumlee– Brooklyn Nets- 5400-  Plumlee gets the start for the injured Brook Lopez and he could play a ton of minutes if he can control the fouls.  Plumlee is a double double waiting to happen with his hustle and leaping ability, but he actually looked a lot better of the summer.  He develped a nice little jump hook and hung with the best the USA had to offer.

Samuel Dalembert-New York Knicks- 4000- Dalembert gets the nod due to heavy minutes to start the season.  The Knicks need a rim protector and Dalembert is it.  He should have a nice rebounding game and you just need 10 points form him to hit value with his ability to block shots.

Steven Adams– OKC Thunder- 3500- Kendrick Perkins is finally pushed to the bench.  Last year I compared Adams to a great dane because he has know clue just how big he is.  He is a the perfect price to take a chance on tonight, but he is another guy that can hurt you if he gets into foul trouble.  At that price his fouls should be an issue.  Big time double double potential with a few blocks and assists thrown in.

Jason Smith-New York Knicks- 3000- Smith is one to keep an eye on as far as possible starters go.  The rumor is the Knicks could start Smith next to Dalembert.  With Bargnani injured there’s one less body for the rotation.  Acy should see minutes, but Chicago is pretty tall across the back line and the Knicks won’t want to allow them to push them around at home.  He has a lot of upside if he gets the minutes tonight, but Adams is by far the safer play.

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The Golden Days Of DFS

DraftDay Sold

Recently one of my favorite daily fantasy sports sites, DraftDay.com was bought by MGT.  I have to say I am sad because my initial introduction to DFS was through playing RapidFire on DraftDay with David Gonos, Dan Strafford and Eric Mack.  I had no idea that this industry existed, let alone how fun and addicting it could be.

The great thing about Draft Day was the simple user interface and the really fun Rapid Fire games.  All you had to do was pick 3 out of 5 right and you double your bet.  The 5 for 5 Rapid Fire Max was the sucker bet of all sucker bets, but every once in a while I would still partake when I felt a lock lineup was picked.  It’s exactly like that side bet at the black jack table in Las Vegas.  Lucky Ladies where if you get two queens of hearts you get a 100-1.  How many times have I seen absolute drunkards losing all their money staying on 15 against a ten and then put their last 50 bucks on that sucker bet and…..WIN!

The truth is the DFS space is getting smaller.  New companies are coming along, but they can’t offer the high stakes games that the big boys like Fanduel, DraftKings and even DraftStreet can offer.  Even if they offer a lower rake or an easier interface and softer games the big money is always going to chase the overlay in the big guaranteed prize pool tournaments.

RotoGrinders Daily Fantasy Fix Podcast recently had Andrew Wiggins co-founder of DraftDay on after he sold his stake in Draft Day and the interview conducted by Dan Back is one of the best inside looks at the shift in the DFS market place that I have heard.  You have to understand that Andrew Wiggins was not only the owner of Draft Day, but is also a very good DFS player himself.  His expertise in Basketball is known to anyone who faces him in a 50/50 or tournament.

Quote from Andrew Wiggins about the sale of Draft Day:

“We have worked tirelessly to build an outstanding product and loyal player base. With MGT’s support, DraftDay will have greater resources to grow this business to new heights. Our employees look forward to making MGT the market leader in daily fantasy sports.”

Seriously, go take a listen then come back and read the rest.

Draft Day just couldn’t keep up with the huge contests that were being offered up at their competitor’s sites.  Andrew said they made a huge error in working on the site itself instead of raising money so they could attract more players.  I think anyone can understand the mistake that DraftDay made.  They simply looked at the wrong problem to fix.

I find myself wasting time doing the same here on my site.  Instead of providing my loyal readers fresh content, I fiddle with the look of the site or work on SEO issues.  People don’t come to my site for the ease of navigation or for the fancy pictures, they come to see if they should drop Mike Moustakas in season long fantasy baseball now or pay for Jose Fernandez in DFS.  I KNOW my problem and how to fix it and yet I still find myself wondering if I am going about this right.

I think that’s what got Draft Day in trouble.  They knew how to build a great user interface and how to create fun games with interesting salary structures.  They didn’t know how to raise money.  I have to commend Andrew for being so honest when he talked about all the financial backing DraftKings got this last year.  He wasn’t jealous in the least.  He was amazed.  How did they accomplish that?  I am the same way when someone in the same industry as me displays a talent that is just so foreign to me yet is exactly what you need to succeed.

Another thing mentioned by Andrew is that DFS players have no idea how good we have it right now.  It’s true, we really don’t.  We nit-pick at sites on slow nights and complain when there’s a lull in big contests.  Imagine how much we’re going to complain when all the overlay is gone, and the rake gets bigger.  We could see a future of only two massive sites where you literally can only play other sharks because all the casual players have been chased away.

We really are Jolly Green Giants walking the DFS earth.

Remember these are the golden days my friends and we will look back fondly on them.

 

 

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Fantasy Basketball-Injuries

As we’re headed toward the playoffs in Fantasy Basketball it’s time to really pay attention to what’s going on around the league.  Injuries to some Fantasy Basketball players can go unnoticed with so much attention being split.

With March Madness taking hold and Fantasy Baseball drafts starting to consume some of your concentration it’s easy to miss some of the happenings around the NBA that can help you win a Fantasy Basketball Championship.

Point Guard-

Kyrie Irving suffered an injury to his biceps and Dion Waiters has stepped into the roll of main ball handler for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  With Irving sidelined for a few weeks Waiters can bring scoring to your fantasy team as well as some assists and steals, but you also have to weather his erratic shooting (42%) (66% from the line) in order to have him help your team.

Waiters last two game lines (Courtesy ESPN.com)

Dion Waiters Stats

While Waiters may be a good source of points you may be in need of some assists.  Well Ramon Sessions of the Milwaukee Bucks could be your answer.  2nd round pick Nate Wolters went down with a fractured hand and Sessions looks to be in line for an increase in minutes in the Bucks’ back court.  While minutes are never guaranteed when talking about the Bucks, i would gamble on Sessions if that category could put me over the top.  Just don’t expect Darren Collison level fill-in numbers.

Shooting Guard-

It took a James Anderson injury to finally see Tony Wroten back in the starting lineup, but Wroten put up very nice numbers in his last start and may be in line for some bigger minutes down the stretch as the 76ers need to evaluate their young talent to see who they want to build around for next season.

Tony Wroten’s Stats For The Last Two Contests (Courtesy ESPN.com)

Tony Wroten Stats

Power Forward-

Drew Gooden has come out of no where to put in quality minutes for the Washington Wizards and if there is an injury to Marcin Gortat  then Gooden becomes a very valuable asset.   The injury to Nene initially cleared the way, but Gooden has thoroughly outplayed Trevor Booker since and can be counted on for double digit points and some rebounds with the a couple of 3-pointers to  boot.

Drew Gooden Clebebrates

Center-

Gorgui Dieng has become somewhat of a phenomenon since getting a chance to start at Center for the Minnesota Timber Wolves while Nikola Pekovic recovers from an ankle injury.  The novelty of plugging him in as low budget option at Center quickly wore off when he went for a double double in his first game starting to along with five blocks.  Instead of a throw away joke on an afternoon DFS podcast he quickly became a name to know and run to the waiver wire as he has had a double double in each of his three starts including his last game where he went for 22 points and 21 rebounds.  With Pek hurting I think you have to run out and grab Dieng in the short term and hope he gets some run the rest of the season.

Gorgui Dieng’s Last Three Games (Courtesy of ESPN.com)

Gorgui Dieng Stats

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Draft Kings Lineup

Swag Dome Lineup

Wed Lineup

 

PG- A lot of choices tonight, but Kyrie has been coming on and has been playing the SG position where he can get into better spots to score.  Not in love with the price, but no PG on the Lakers can stay with him.

SF- Rudy Gay going against the team that gave up on him in less than a season.  I like the payback factor here and Gay has been a beast since coming back from an Achilles strain.

PF-Sullinger is a guy that can be maddening in DFS, but he had a huge game against the 76ers last time out so I am going to hope he keeps it up.

C-The  minutes restriction seems to be over Varejao and he is facing a depleted Laker front line.

F-Kyle Singler gets the start for the Pistons and should be able to hit above value pretty easily.

This lineup obviously fades all the big names on Draft Kings tonight which isn’t usually the best strategy, but this is the lineup that had the most upside for me.   Good luck everyone.

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DraftKings NBA DFS

With football season all but over and MLB still a few months away this new daily fantasy sports addict needed an outlet.  Luckily for me DraftKings was the perfect place to get my feet wet in NBA DFS.  While the winnings have been relatively small compared to my end of season in MLB DFS and NFL DFS, it has been a very fun ride.  

Here are some of my favorite plays and reasons for playing them tonight

Just The Guards Tonight

stephen curry

PG 

Stephen Curry 9,000

Curry is 1,000 budget dollars cheaper than he has been in recent games and that is a huge bonus for daily players.  He has one of the highest (if not highest) ceilings of any PG in DFS and DraftKings is basically bating you to use him.  Great small tournament play especially.

Kyle Lowry 7,400

Lowry has kicked it into another gear ever since General Grievous (Greivis Vasquez) was traded to the Raptors.  Lowry is a solid play against Minny as Rubio takes a few too many chances on D and loves to go under the pick in pick and roll situations.

Darren Collison 5,500

Collison has been very steady since taking over for the injured Chris Paul, but his ceiling is no where near as high as Curry’s.  It all depends on where you want to spend tonight.

SG

Again Stephen Curry and his discounted 9,000 figure.

DeMar DeRozen 7,600

DeRozen should hit value tonight against the Timberwolves, but he is not going to blow away his value numbers like some other SG’s might.

Jodie Meeks 5,800

Meeks has been in a lot of my lineups lately and he has been pretty steady.  With Nick Young suspended Meeks will benefit from a few more scoring opportunities .  His price is starting to get into the range where I may look elsewhere.

Avery Bradley 5,100

With Rondo back people may finally stop riding Bradley, but tonight is not the night to fade him.  Rondo will probably play between 20-25 minutes and Bradley will be a huge part of this offense with Rondo in or out of the game.

I also love JJ Redick for 5,000 against a tired and humiliated Knicks team.  Iman Shumpert is a good perimeter defender, but he may be licking his wounds after what the Pacers did to him and his teammates last night.

Feel free to tweet me @coachesser with any questions about which forwards or centers I have in play tonight.

 

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