Fantasy Baseball – Page 5 – The Fantasy Sports Coach

Position Versatility and Needs

Oh how I miss the straight forwardness of fantasy football positions. If you lose a wide receiver to an injury you pick up another wide receiver. No fuss no muss, as they say. I wonder if it was always that easy. Can you imagine if NFL teams today were using their running backs the way the NY Giants used Frank Gifford back in the day. I could see it now – Adrian Peterson being used at QB, RB, WR and TE all in the same game? (he actually might put up better numbers than Christian Ponder). The Steelers tried to confuse opposing defenses and fantasy GMs alike in the 1990’s when they introduced Kordell “Slash” Stewart to the world. Stewart was a wide receiver…no wait, he was running-back…oh wait, he was a quarterback. Depending on what was allowed in a 1990’s fantasy football league, he was playing at different positions on some other GM’s team.

Fantasy baseball is a completely different animal with players qualifying at multiple positions and picking up new positions all the time. Different sites have players qualified at different positions with different criteria as to how they obtain eligibility. The positional flexibility can be maddening or it can be the key to success, especially if you have daily lineup changes as one of my leagues employs.

The best thing I did post-draft was pick up players who could qualify all over the field as injury protection. I drafted Todd Frazier (1B,3B,LF) to be my poor man’s Allen Craig (LF,RF,1B). I also picked up Matt Carpenter (1B,2B,3B,RF) and Jed Lowrie (2B,SS) to back up all over the infield. They were supposed to be spot starters and short-term injury fill-ins, but Frazier and Carpenter have spent a lot of time in my starting lineup. (Frazier not so much lately).

I was getting lucky avoiding the injury bug considering I have Evan Longoria as one of my cornerstones. I was finally stung when Ian Kinsler hit the DL and faced a decision as to who would be his replacement. I could go to the waiver wire and pick up his likely replacement in Jurickson Profar (the Rangers’ and MLB’s No. 1 prospect), fill the gap from within with the likes of Kyle Seager or Matt Carpenter, or go to the waiver wire and pick up a streaking player at a different position.

Profar was the most intriguing choice. He is a big time prospect who could perform his way into staying on with the big league club. If Profar handles second base well, he may even force Kinsler to shift to an outfield position or first base. I looked at his position eligibility in my Yahoo league and realized he will be stuck as a utility player at least for his first five starts with the Rangers. With Kinsler due back in two weeks and Ron Washington being non-committal to Profar playing every day, he became less of an option.

My in-house options were nice with Seager and Carpenter, but with the loss of Kinsler I was going to hurt in HR’s and SB’s with either player. Carpenter has been raking, but is not a threat to steal and has very limited HR potential. His batting average and OPS are comparable to Kinsler’s and he is a slight improvement in runs scored. Seager has been in a little bit of a slump, (batting .227 over the last two weeks) but still has a good chance to put up decent 2B numbers batting third for Seattle. However, neither will solve a power potential problem.

Last but not least is Brandon Belt. (AUTHOR’S NOTE: We would be talking about Mitch Moreland and his power statistics if Kinsler had been placed on the DL just a bit sooner. Moreland was scooped up just two days before Kinsler went on the DL and will be hitting 30 homers for another GM). Belt was finally going to play up to his lofty potential this season as he was hitting homeruns and driving in runs in bunches during spring training, but he began the season in a slump. I drafted him projecting that he would break out with 30 homers and steal bases in the double digits, but I quickly pulled the plug on his season when it looked as if Bruce Bochy was giving up on him. Bochy was batting him eighth in a National League lineup and sitting him against most lefthanders again.

I kept an eye on Belt after I dropped him just to make sure he wouldn’t break out for another GM. My current first baseman, Adrian Gonzalez, is sporting a high batting average (.319) and driving in runs (29), but his power numbers look to be headed in the wrong direction (just four homeruns). Gonzalez has eligibility in RF and could be an upgrade out there for me while I wait on Corey Hart and Josh Reddick to heal. So I had to turn my attention to a streaking player with power potential at first base. Belt had turned it on over the last month with a .301 batting average with six homeruns, 17 RBI, and a .961 OPS. I could no longer ignore his resurgence and neither could Giants’ manager Bruce Bochy. Bochy moved Belt back up to sixth in the order and I slid Belt into my lineup last Monday night. Belt came through with a 4 for 5 night with a homerun and four runs scored. Not a bad start for Belt and definitely worth a few pats on the back for this old eagle eye.

this article is also featured at www.FantasyJudgment.com in a weekly diary series.

Bad Trades = Cell Phone Voicemails (How to ignore and discourage both)

Is there anything more annoying than a terrible trade offer in one of your fantasy leagues? The only thing comparable would be voicemails on my cell phone. I avoid responding to both out of sheer principle.

One has become an epidemic since I last played fantasy baseball in the 1990’s. The other is a dinosaur that should be avoidable with all of the easier ways to say “hello” or to see how I am doing. Hasn’t anyone ever heard of even trades, email, text messages, Google chat, or even Facebook messenger?

Bad trade offers were much tougher to even attempt when everything was done face to face or over the phone. If someone offered me Edward Mujica for Troy Tulowitski in a bar, I could at least make them buy me a beer for having to listen to that nonsense. If they tried that over the phone, I could actually hang up and let them know how offended I was. But now sitting behind a keyboard, fantasy GMs have no conscience when sending out their offers.

I understand the impulse to ask for the ridiculous. You never know unless you ask. But the anonymity of the computer age has made leagues almost unbearable. A fellow GM offered me two waiver pick ups (who should still be on the waiver wire BTW) for my best starting pitcher. He then got offended when I didn’t answer back in a timely manner.

I’m sorry I didn’t know I was holding up his attempt at league domination by not responding to the crap currently in my inbox. I have even got the halfhearted messages explaining to me how this awful trade makes my team better. Really? A fourth closer for the number one fantasy shortstop is my ticket to a championship? Who knew? I guess all that work I do breaking down numbers and trying to make my team the best it can be is all for nothing. I should just have this guy put together my team and the league championship is all mine.

I could have instantly rejected the idiotic trade offer, but I chose to avoid it like the long-winded drunken catch-up voice mail from my old college buddy currently blinking away on my cell phone. I am keeping both for posterity. The next time I see someone from my league, I will whip open my phone and say “look at this!” Can you believe he actually tried that? Then we will try and one up each other with all the bad offer stories we have from our multiple leagues.

I guess it goes to show that there is a feeling out process when joining a new league. People don’t know each other all that well and feel like they need to try and see who the sucker is. I understand that we all have made terrible trades when we first started playing fantasy sports. Mine was trading Jerome Bettis for Reggie Rivers (the man who took over for Barry Sanders) when I was introduced to fantasy football. I have never forgiven myself and have never done business with that GM again. That was almost 15 years ago and it still stings like it was yesterday.

Luckily nowadays, newbies to fantasy sports are protected by league votes and impartial commissioners. If both are in cahoots, you can even go to an arbitrator to try and reach a resolution. I know if there was a problem in my league we would immediately go to fantasyjudgment.com and let someone outside of the situation rule on a league controversy.

You didn’t have that back in 1999. All you could do was complain to an uncaring bartender at your local watering hole and learn from your mistakes. I don’t know which I prefer; the old face to face handshake deals or the faceless emails. Both have their pro’s and con’s, but I think I miss sealing a trade over a nice tall Yuengling Lager.

The Challenge of Running Into Hot Fantasy Baseball Players

It appears that my luck (or lack thereof) has followed me from fantasy football into fantasy baseball. I feel I drafted a very solid team, but my early season results have been nothing to write home about. I drafted Ryan Braun with the third overall pick and he has been as good as advertised. Braun is a fantasy stud who can carry a fantasy team throughout the year. My infield is very solid with the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Ian Kinsler and Evan Longoria. Besides Braun, my outfield consists of some late round gems such as Dexter Fowler and Starling Marte. My top starting pitchers are Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, and Jake Peavy. But my closers have been a mixed bag. Sergio Romo has been excellent thus far, but Joel Hanrahan seemingly has lost his closing duties to the reinvigorated Andrew Bailey in Boston.

While trying to figure out why my team was not dominating in the early going, I quickly found some players to blame. I missed the boat towards the end of the draft with selections such as Brandon Belt and Aaron Hicks who were quickly sacrificed to the waiver wire. In hindsight, I really regret picking Brandon Morrow over Jon Lester. I also rue the day of my gamble on Corey Hart’s injured knee and not targeting a solid right fielder earlier in the draft. Hart’s placement on the 60-day DL has forced me to play Adrian Gonzalez in right field and start one of my bench players (Todd Frazier and Matt Carpenter) at first base. I am losing significant power numbers when Carpenter is slotted at First Base as opposed to filling in at other positions periodically.

Before the draft, I targeted Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Moore but missed out on them by a pick or two. I have been scrambling to make up for missing out on both players ever since. That is probably why I reached for Belt and reluctantly took Brandon Morrow during the draft. I blame my poor time management for drafting Morrow, as I was down to the final five seconds on the draft clock.

Despite those shortcomings, I have made some quality early season pick-ups such as Jed Lowrie and Kyle Seager to partially offset those draft day mistakes. I even took a flier on Mark Teixeira who was dropped after the draft. Hopefully he does come back and can fill my all-important first base slot. He and Hart are stashed on my DL waiting to be utilized in June (fingers crossed). I also picked up Jose Valverde to fill the closer slot vacated by Hanrahan, and Shelby Miller to add some strike out power to my pitching staff.

Being honest with myself, I really cannot blame my team for some of my early season losses. Instead, I had the misfortune of playing against some players who produced extraordinary results. Two that come to mind are Carlos Gonzales who battered and abused the Mets, as well as Mike Napoli when he was doing his best Tony Conigliaro impression. I swear, the Green Monster is a magnet for that guy. I watched him rain double after double off that little league fence with the bases seemingly always loaded. Then incredibly, I was up against Anibal Sanchez last week when he decided to set a Tigers’ record of 17 strikeouts in one game.

Weeks like that reminded me of some fantasy football weeks your quarterback throws for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in the early game, only to be outdone by Drew Brees and his videogame-like numbers later in the day. Or if Chris Johnson (that would be CJ2K of the Tennessee Titans and not the pasty third baseman on the Braves) finally breaks out for you with a 100-yard day and a touchdown only to be outscored by Adrian Peterson during one of his record-breaking romps. I guess I didn’t realize that this type of misfortune also applied in fantasy baseball.

However, running into a couple of hot teams and players during the early part of the season is not going to get me off my game. I am going to stick to my strategy of playing match-ups and making some shrewd moves on the waiver wire. I will not hit the panic button and make a bad trade just to just to get a shaky closer or retread first baseman. After all, the fantasy baseball season is long and my luck is bound to even out. Right? Right???

The Pull of the Waiver Wire

The call of the waiver wire is as irresistible as a Siren calling me towards a rocky shore. I cannot help but peek constantly at all of the unwanted players that could be the key to a championship season. The songs are full of homeruns and stolen bases, but when you get up close you realize they are actually strikeouts and hitless nights. Unwanted relievers that look like save opportunities are actually WHIP and ERA killers dressed as shaky closers.

While it has been a long time since I have visited the baseball version of this island, my years of fantasy football have prepared me to navigate these rough waters. Some early season struggles of mid-round picks may send some GMs to dispatch their weak link early. Meanwhile, it can be a great place to buy low for the knowledgeable GM.

Some names that recently hit the waiver wire in my head-to-head league include late round sleepers, solid bench players, and even a former MVP. These players include Mike Moustakas, Kyle Seager, Brett Gardner, and Justin Morneau. None of these players are going to make or break a fantasy team, but I had to pinch myself to see if this was a waiver wire reality or a free agent fantasy.

Both real and fantasy baseball pundits have repeatedly proclaimed that “Moustakas is going to hit.” Maybe so. But for now I would rather hold the fort down with guys like Chris Johnson and Jason Donaldson until Moustakas figures it out…on my bench. Brett Gardner was supposed to fill your stolen base quota, but instead he has opened the season like he was stuck in second gear. If he’s not stealing now, he will be later in the year. Don’t let another GM reap the benefits of your quick trigger finger.

Kyle Seager has way too much upside to put on the waiver wire, even if he is batting against the wind. Seager is someone you should hold on to, especially since he is eligible at second base in some leagues. Even with his recent hot streak, his batting average hasn’t surpassed .250 which is demonstrative of how poorly he started the season. Finally, I was quite surprised to see 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau on the waiver wire. Granted, if he is not hitting for power then he can possibly drag your team down in several roto categories. But he appears healthy and is a strong candidate to be traded at some point during the season. He would be worth your while to simply stash on your bench until he gets hot later in the year.

Moving on to the pitchers, many big names have surprisingly found their way to the waiver wire after failing to quickly rekindle their past glory. Dan Haren and Josh Johnson are two prime examples as GM’s might begin to hit their ejector seat buttons. (Chad Billingsley was originally on this list before it was revealed he required Tommy John surgery). Haren has been very shaky after a terrible 2012 season,and I see him as surplus to requirements in almost every format. Johnson is one of the most injury-prone pitchers in baseball, and is playing in a park that is not very friendly to sinker-ball pitchers. He got off to a very poor start in 2013, but he can still be a fantasy asset and is playing for a contract which is always an added motivating factor.

Finally, I must acknowledge that I have been greatly amused watching the train wreck otherwise known as the always-evolving “Closer Carousel.” Newly acquired Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan started out hot, cooled off, got hurt, and now looks like an afterthought with the job Andrew Bailey is doing. Carlos Marmol and John Axford lost their jobs during Week 1 with epic failures. Then Marmol has some success pitching in a setup role. As soon as he is given another chance to protect a lead, he fails…again. I mostly put his recent blown save on his manager, who brought him in the day after throwing over thirty pitches in a two inning outing. Not to mention Joey Votto was overdue against him and a runner was already in scoring position. I, like most GMs, are happy to avoid the headaches and indigestion that some of these bad closers can cause. The Detroit Tigers closing situation has been like a Mike Shanahan running back competition. First it is this guy, then it is that guy, and now it’s Jose Valverde all over again. There is a very good chance that this will change again by the time this article is published.

PS Axford might get his closers job back………

You can also see this article featured at Fantasyjudgment.com as Coach Dennis’s Diary

Bad Picks = Bad Beats

Now three weeks into the season, it is easy to start second-guessing yourself. Do you have a gaping hole in your lineup thanks to an early round gamble on an injury-prone star such as Jose Reyes? Has that “sure thing” and “can’t miss”stud turned into a bench-warming nightmare such as Josh Hamilton and Matt Kemp? Are you paying the “Price” for taking last year’s Cy Young winners and overlooking Matt Harvey later on in the draft? Is “Cain” not able? Rather than dwell on all of your mistakes, you should bask in the glory of the small victories you attained.

It is easy to get down on yourself and play Monday morning quarterback. Instead, try and focus on all the smart picks you made. Maybe you took late bloomer Chris Davis in the later rounds and have been reaping the benefits of his newfound confidence ever since. If so, your own confidence as a GM should grow as well. Maybe you went with your gut looking for an outfielder and grabbed Dexter Fowler, and in the process bypassed roto darlings Brett Gardner and Angel Pagan. Maybe you are skeptical of medical records and physicals so you drafted Mike Napoli and now look like a genius. Or, maybe you smartly grabbed an established second baseman such as Dustin Pedroia or Ian Kinsler instead of getting tempted by Jason Kipnis or Emilio Bonifacio.

Focusing only on the missteps can drive a fantasy baseball GM mad. I would equate this mentality to the poker player who dwells on his bad beats. You played the hand by the percentages and with perfect mathematical precision, but the other guy just happened to get lucky. You can drive yourself crazy replaying these hands and bad picks, over and over again. But eventually, you realize you could not and should not have done anything differently. After all, David Price at the top of the third round is something I would take any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

As the saying goes, focus on the good things and don’t let the bad get you down. Don’t let early season struggles become a cancer on your fantasy team. I realize symbolizing an under-performing fantasy baseball as a cancer is a bit extreme, but it fits. Think about it – the GM feels as if the struggling player is sucking the life from his team, but most likely that player is too good to drop (think BJ Upton, Jason Heyward, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ike Davis). You should not be running around your league trying to trade your bad apple because that apple will look awfully rotten if the other GMs get to talking.

It is advisable to hold on to the underperforming star player and think long-term. They can always be stashed on your bench during serious cold streaks. Do not make rash or impulsive waiver wire decisions based on these early season anomalies. Instead, you can make up the difference by picking up valuable players while dropping the dead weight. Players like Jhoulys Chacin (currently on 15-day DL) and Ross Detwiler would be nice upgrades for some of the bigger names that are droppable such as Mark Buehrle, Dan Haren, and Edwin Jackson. Don’t rush to drop Jarrod Parker, Josh Johnson, or Brandon Morrow. They have too much upside to put out on the waiver-wire right now.

Back to Bases!

Welcome back to fantasy baseball (insert my best Horshack voice). No, I am not that old that the last time I participated in a league was during the time of bellbottoms and Oscar Gamble’s afro. Rather, it was during the time of flannels and the greatness of Seattle, both in music and on the field. This is my ongoing diary for Fantasy Judgment of my experience venturing back into fantasy baseball. I will provide insight and observations throughout the season of my team, league, and general perception of fantasy baseball from the perspective of someone who has been out of the game for awhile and is now back. Think of me as the Unfrozen Caveman Fantasy Baseball Player. FIRE BAD!

Pearl Jam A lot has changed since the late 1990’s. Seattle is now known for its coffee and its baseball team is a cellar dweller with only a few players worth drafting. (Editor’s Note: thanks to the Houston Astros, the Mariners are almost guaranteed not to finish in last place in the AL West). The players around the league don’t quite fill out the uniforms, or the box scores, the way they did in the 1990’s. It is no secret that players’ statistics today pale in comparison with those achieved before the Mitchell Report. Gone are the days of middle infielders dominating the homerun and RBI categories (thanks Bret Boone). If anything, Major League Baseball is now reminiscent of the 1980’s in terms of positional values. The best example would be Robinson Cano having equivalent value as Ryne Sandberg did in the mid 1980’s. I am quite happy about that because I feel this trend actually helps me in my comeback quest.

I started playing fantasy baseball in a Rotisserie league in the late 1980’s and absolutely loved it. I assigned players a value based on position eligibility and looked to maximize my dollars according to the values I assigned during our league auction. The draft was everything I had hoped it would be – exciting, fun, and all together exhilarating. The rest of the season was always a letdown. The time before cell phones and the Internet did not make a long season exciting. I would follow my teams performance in the Daily News box scores, but there was no league banter or trades of any kind. The last thing on anyone’s mind was riding a bike across town just to get Tim Wallach or Kelly Gruber, when your Yankee third baseman didn’t materialize. Teams would be drafted and set adrift, and it would always leave a bad taste in my mouth.

The late 90s offered more excitement with the Internet being utilized, but once again getting a league to actually care, and stay interested for 162 games grew impossible. We were latch key kids who had grown up with the remote control. We had the attention spans of 6 year olds listening to a lecture. If you were not entertaining us than you were switched off.

Fantasy football became my passion. A draft that had all the excitement I was looking for, and a short season that kept mine, and everyone else in the league’s attention. The format was perfect, head to head week after week, divisions and playoffs culminating before the end of the season. Fantasy football and the rush associated became a increasingly addictive. I joined more and more leagues. I went through withdrawal after the season ended, even if I won the title. I would count the days to the draft, and look at meaningless Football news in the middle of May as if my life depended on it.

I needed an intervention, or at least a good fantasyadone clinic. Now at the height of my addiction, in walks a head-to-head fantasy baseball league and my attention is grabbed. I was still following baseball and all of its storylines, but had pretty much become New York-centric. If it didn’t have to do with the Yankees or Mets, I really did not care.

I was going to have to do some homework and fast. Luckily all of my draft strategies and GM skills easily translated to the new format for fantasy baseball. First and foremost I was looking at which positions were deep and which positions I needed to put a premium on based on scarcity. I also did the leg work and polled other GMs as to the pervasive draft strategies that I needed to try and stick to. The biggest tip I got was to try and get a stud number one starting pitcher in the first three rounds. If I didn’t, I would be gambling the rest of the draft to make up the difference. This theory easily paralleled my draft strategy in football as it is always imperative to get a top 6 quarterback in the first three rounds, otherwise you are gambling the rest of the draft with unproven commodities. While RG3 and Andrew Luck carried teams early, late in the season the owners who gambled on them mostly fell to the wayside. I feel the same way about GMs in fantasy baseball who think they are going to ride Matt Harvey and players of his ilk to the Promised Land. It’s a long season and I want a player that has been there and done that, not one that I have to draft way to early and hope that they are the exception to the rule.

I hope you tune in and don’t change the channel as I update you throughout the year on my reintroduction to fantasy baseball.