The Fantasy Baseball Black Book
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The Fantasy Baseball Black Book

Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball DFS

The Fantasy Baseball Black Book

The twists and turns of life often bring you back to a very familiar place. The twists and turns of my life brought me to Somerville, New Jersey to raise my children in my wife’s home town. While my wife was very familiar with the surroundings of this part of New Jersey, I was not. I often got route 202 confused with route 206 and became even more confused when it turned out they become the same road just north of Somerville.

I clung to sports to get my bearings and started coaching in the local high school. Football and Wrestling filled my days and nights and I started to master all the little ins and outs of the towns here in Somerset County. Then my wife became pregnant with triplets and my life completely changed. Instead of teaching and coaching I was changing diapers and making formula. Instead of watching game film or scouting opponents I was watching Sesame Street and going to well visits.

While I was talking to one of my friends from High School on Facebook they mentioned that a mutual friend was in a similar situation and lived relatively close to me. That mutual friend turned out to be Joe Pisapia, author of The Fantasy Baseball Blackbook, and someone I hadn’t spoken to since graduation. I looked Joe up on Twitter and we reconnected. It proved to be a very small world. We had grown up only a few blocks from each other and now we lived in neighboring towns. It was amazing how much we had in common. We both married amazing women who had become the major bread winners in the household and had daughters that we stayed home to take care of. We both were infatuated with fantasy sports and immediately started picking each other’s brain on theories and strategies.

I was primarily involved in the fantasy football world and had been away from fantasy baseball for a number of years when we reconnected. Joe, on the other hand, had been writing about fantasy baseball on multiple sites and was on SiriusXM Radio on the Going 9 Baseball show along with another childhood friend Dan Strafford. Not only was Joe posting articles and talking baseball on the radio, but he was author to the Number 1 Fantasy Baseball book on Kindle. The ideas and theories behind Joe’s book brought me back to Fantasy Baseball in 2013 and I couldn’t be happier. It made me look at rankings and the draft in an all new way and actually had me right back up on top of the leagues I was in my first year back since the late 90’s.

If you don’t believe me or are skeptical you should listen to some friends in the industry who think just as highly of The Fantasy Baseball Black Book as I do.

“Pisapia’s ideas and concepts on relative value are some of the smartest things I’ve read on this topic in all my years playing fantasy. All the things you think you know about fantasy are going to be colored and changed once you read this.”– Will Carroll, Lead Writer for Sports Medicine, Bleacher Report Member, BBWAA and PFWA

“Joe will have you looking at your player rankings in a whole new
way… and it will help put you ahead of the curve.” – Chris McBrien Host, “Dear Mr. Fantasy” Podcast

I was so excited about Joe’s latest book that I wanted share it with as many friends and followers as I could. Joe was nice enough to provide me an excerpt from his latest book so that my readers and followers can see what they’re missing by only buying a fantasy magazine from the local drug store. Here’s some of what the new book covers.

The new and expanded 2014 edition includes:

* Over 400+ player profiles including minor league prospects
* Expanded RPV for all players in varying formats (roto & points)
* 2014 Draft Strategy for all formats including Daily Fantasy Baseball leagues
* Chapters on being a commissioner, most overrated/underrated players, making trades and managing your team, and the answers the five biggest questions in fantasy this season
* More Dynasty and Auction League content than ever before

Here’s the excerpt, and don’t forget to click on the link to buy The Fantasy Baseball Black Book 2014 Edition.

By Joe Pisapia the creator of the revolutionary statistic RPV (Relative Position Value) and the author of The Fantasy Baseball Black Book 2014 Edition. Available on Amazon Kindle Store and iTunes for Apple Devices. Check out www.fantasyblackbook.com for your fantasy baseball news and listen to him on Sirius210/XM87 Fantasy Sports Channel Going 9 Baseball Every Thursday 8-10PM EST.

RPV – Relative Position Value

The age old argument in fantasy sports has always been whether or not to value position scarcity. Many have had theories on both ends of the spectrum. The biggest problem is neither side has been able to quantify their stance on the subject. That is until the Fantasy Baseball Black Book created the statistic Relative Position Value otherwise known as RPV. What RPV does is allow you to compare players to their peers at their respective positions with weighted values based on their production. It also gives you a look into each position as an entire entity to see just how valuable catchers are compared to second basemen as a whole. Best of all, it is completely adaptable to all formats, styles, scoring systems. RPV is adjustable to your specific league style and depth of talent. It’s the single most useful draft tool and player evaluation system available to fantasy players. And for any roto league players skeptical of this stat translating into your format, get ready to see fantasy in a whole new light.

RPV goes so much deeper than just measuring out league average production at a position. That really doesn’t help you much because all that gives you is a medium baseline to work off of and stay above. But what does that mean? It doesn’t weigh the players value above that baseline nor weigh the elite at the position versus the elite at other positions.

For example, let’s pretend the league average second basemen offensive stat line is: .260BA/70R/10HR/70RBI/7SB

The “experts” who use this logic insist that Player X is better than the league average and Player Y is under the league average so therefore Player Y is not valuable. Here is the major problem with this approach; the league average holds 30 players at second base. Fantasy leagues play 12-20 second basemen every week (depending on format and MINF slots). Therefore, the “league average” concept is obsolete. The fantasy league average is what is applicable based upon the depth of your personal league. My 24 team dynasty league is a totally different set of circumstances than my 16 team points league or 12 team roto league. You must have an adjustable tool to measure players in all situations.

Let us take things a step further. It’s not enough to know the statistical average fantasy points of the top 12 second basemen over the last three years (roughly 400 points). You need to have some way of quantifying how much better (or worse) a given player is compared to the next guy available at his position on draft day. I call this approach Relative Position Value of a player or RPV. This theory is simple to grasp and easy to utilize when creating your tiers for your draft.

To begin using RPV, you’ll need a method that will assign a numerical value to each player that reflects his performance. Any single measurement method will do; however, it is most easily communicated using fantasy points (or projected fantasy points) which measure a player’s true overall production. However, just because we are using points does not mean the result is not applicable to roto formats. In fact, it can be a huge asset when creating your draft strategy in roto leagues. You just have to adjust the point value by adding more weight to stolen bases and being aware of positive and negative batting averages (above/below .275BA as the benchmark). On the pitching end, you increase the value of saves and awareness of positive/negative ERA (3.75ERA being the threshold). We will investigate roto RPV further as the chapter continues.

With the basic point value system Robinson Cano is the highest point getter at second base with a 550 point average over the last three seasons. The average over that same period for the top 16 second basemen is 375 points. Note that we are looking at Cano versus a grouping of 16, but of course the number can be adjusted for any depth necessary.

The formula to determine the RPV or the percentage in which a player is better than the fantasy league average is:

(Individual Player Point Value − Fantasy League Average of the Position) ÷ Fantasy League Average of the Position = RPV

In the case of our example:

(Robinson Cano’s 550 −The Average 2B points 375) ÷ 375 = .46

So what does this .46 number mean? It means Cano is +46% better than the league fantasy league average second basemen. Therefore his RPV is +46%.

RPV can also show a negative impact. That would mean a player whose point total is below the position average (the 375 point threshold in this circumstance). RPV lets us see not only the negative affect of these players, but also the extent of that negative impact. For instance, let’s plug in Omar Infante’s 3 year average of 320 points into the equation.

Infante’s 320pts – 375 FLA (Fantasy League Avg) ÷ 375 = −.15 or −15%RPV

This means that should you end up starting Omar Infante in your league that you are down -15% in production at that given position relative to what the average second basemen in your league will achieve. Therefore, you must make up ground at another position just to keep up with the league average at an overall team level. The goal is to be at or above the average at every available position in order to maximize each available roster spot. Bill James once said if you had a league average player at every position you would make the playoffs in MLB every year. That would be accurate in fantasy terms as well. However, what we want to do is get to the playoffs with a real chance to win. In lay terms, you want to squeeze as much juice from every single orange you have in your crate so that your glass is as full as it can be, or at least fuller than the guy next to you. You have a certain number of finite active roster slots in your lineup and getting the most out of them each week is the key to success.

RPV IN THEORY

For an example, let’s take a look at the RPV leaders at each position over the last three years using the standard scoring system. Again this is for a field of 16 deep at each position. The second RPV in brackets

[X%] is for a 12 team roto league pool with expanded rosters (2C/CINF/MINF/5OF etc). The three year leaders by position are:

(FL AVG Points) =Fantasy League Average points

[RL AVG] = Roto League Average points

C Carlos Santana {398pts} (289 FL AVG pts) +38%RPV

[based on 256 roto league average points Santana = +55% roto RPV]

1B Prince Fielder {522pts} (418FL AVG) +25%RPV [386 RL AVG = +35%]

2B Robinson Cano {550pts} (375FL AVG) +46% [356 RL AVG = +55%]

3B Miguel Cabrera {636pts} (375FL AVG) +70% [346 RL AVG = +85%]

SS Ben Zobrist {443pts} (358 FL AVG) +24% [330 RL AVG = +34%]

*ALL ROTO OF RPV based on a 360 point ROTO AVG*

OF #1 (440) – Mike Trout (*only two full seasons*) (601) +37% [+70%]

OF #2 (376) – Alex Rios (424) +8% [+17%]

OF #3 (319) – Alfonso Soriano (369) +10% [+3%]

* #4 and #5 OF for roto only

*OF #4 (274) – Austin Jackson (342) [-5%]

*OF #5 (240) B.J. Upton 286 [-21%]

*SP RPV values hold true in all formats*

(w/ a secret points league advantage discussed later in this chapter)

SP#1 (522) – Clayton Kershaw (669) +28%

*SP #2 (409) – C.J. Wilson (440) +8%

*SP #3 (337) – A.J. Burnett (372) +10%

*SP #4 (291) – Mike Minor (311) +7%

*SP #5 (256) – Ryan Vogelsong (269) +5%

RP #1 (321) – Craig Kimbrel (522) +63%

*RP #2 (241) – Glen Perkins (264) +10%

One of the most interesting things about looking at 3-year averages is that the “best” player at each position is not necessarily the one that jumps to mind. Ben Zobrist for instance is not the player Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki is, but Zobrist does produce consistently and he stays on the field regularly. In points leagues, Carlos Santana’s +38% is higher than Mike Trout’s 37%, but clearly there is no universe Santana goes before Trout nor should he. What it does illuminate is that relatively speaking, Santana’s value based on the positional depth of catcher is extraordinary. It also shows how valuable a catcher who plays more frequently just 5 games a week. We

Notice that for the outfield and pitching positions I’ve broken things down into individual roster spots, even though the players who are eligible at these positions are all drafted from a single pool. I think this is appropriate when considering RPV, because, not all three outfielders on a fantasy points league squad represent the same level of quality or performance. Thinking this way, you can see why drafting a solid number one outfielder is important, but once you have one, the rest of your outfield slots can be filled later in the draft.

There is a distinct difference in the points and roto RPV numbers. You can also clearly see when the talent pool expands to a 12 team roto league with 5 OF/CINF/MINF etc. the percentages expand. What also grows is the disparity between the top and bottom numbers. You also see how even the best 4^th and 5^th outfielders are in the negative pool making outfielders a higher priority in roto. The OF pool becomes a matter of supply and demand. There are 90 active OF playing a night in MLB (3OF x 30 teams). In a 16 team points there are 48 (3 OF x 16 teams). That is about half the total talent pool. In roto, you normally have 5 active X 12 teams which is a pool of 60. That is 2/3 of the talent pool and I am not counting how many you will see used in DH or UT lots. That can easily bump that number to 70 or more out of the 90 available.

In 12 team roto leagues, Mike Trout’s value skyrockets as it should. OF is where you will get the majority of stolen base production and that is crucial to roto leagues. Another clear leap is at catcher. Santana’s RPV also increases a great deal based on the expanded catcher pool and lack of production at the bottom third of the top 24 catchers. As for Miguel Cabrera, well he is still equally brilliant in all formats.

Fantasy Sports: Trades
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Fantasy Sports: Trades

Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Football

Fantasy Sports: Trades

Being Proactive Vs. Being Annoying

I am all for trying to better your roster from the time the draft ends to the very second that you are eliminated from the playoffs. I even love making trades during a draft. That’s why I always prefer having a live in-person draft because you can use some of the best skills a poker player possesses to your advantage. You can read a person’s reaction to a pick. (bad or good.) You can use your memory of how much an owner loves a certain player to corner them into a trade. You can even use your mathematical skills to gain an advantage when trading draft picks.

The problem I have seen with online drafts full of anonymous strangers is there is little to no advantage to be culled for trade purposes during a draft. The message board is often filled with braggadocio and insults, and offers little useful information to the cunning owner. The occasional, you sniped me comment, can be used, but even then the owner knows they opened their big mouth during the draft. The trade block after a draft is filled with mistake picks that look like road side junk on the way to a theme park.

After a draft is always a delicate time for trades. It’s easy to take a player or two off an owner’s hands that had some buyer’s remorse, but trying to pry away top draft picks is often a fruitless endeavor. They were drafted high for a reason. The owner believes in their talent and opportunity. The only time I even try and go after an owner’s first few picks is when there is some post draft news that may affect how in love they really are with that player. Is the backup all of a sudden going to be handed a bigger role. Is there an injury that went unnoticed in the preseason.

Make Sure You See The Signs

If an owner tells you up front that they would prefer not to talk about trades until after the season starts, take that as a big hint. They are basically posting a huge warning sign that states CLOSED UNTIL THE SEASON. Treat these owners like they are bears in hibernation. You don’t really want to go prodding the bear and end up creating an enemy for life.

If an owner says a certain player is OFF LIMITS don’t cross that line. As the great @WHUDEY says all the time, habitual line steppers will be put in their place! No rationale or pointing out of holes in an owner’s lineup will help you pry away an untouchable. You will only make that owner dig in deeper, like a jungle warrior trying to avoid an invading army. You are only setting yourself up for disaster if you keep on with the assault.

If an owner says they have a certain need, make sure your trade offer solves that problem otherwise you are wasting people’s time. Don’t try and sell your offer as a problem solver if it only puts a band-aid on an open wound. When someone loses Reggie Wayne for the year don’t offer them Hakeem Nicks for Jimmy Graham. Not only are you insulting their intelligence, you are bringing your own into question.

If your 100 MESSAGES aren’t being returned it’s time to rethink your strategy. Trying to get a trade done is not a war of attrition. You don’t try and wear down the other owner until they finally accept an offer. You are not only alienating the owner, but you are setting yourself up for a big problem. If you continuously set your sites on one player you can make so many offers that you may make a mistake where you give away way too much for that player. It’s especially dangerous if the owner you are trying to force a trade with is a poker player. A good owner (poker player) could be just checking and checking every time they decline your trade offers without a reason, waiting to trap you into that one big hand where he empties your wallet. (roster.)

Being First To The Feeding Frenzy

When there is a major injury on a Sunday in fantasy football, the first thing I do is check the owner of that player’s roster for possible trade fits. I treat that owner as if they are a stranded swimmer out in the ocean. Life boats will be coming at them from all angles with some boats looking more inviting then others. Being first to lend a hand with a sensible offer can put you at the head of the line if there are multiple owners with similar offers. Remember that most owner’s worst traits tend to come out when they smell blood in the water. They offer their waiver wire bound wide receiver and act like it’s the golden ticket from Willy Wonka. I’m pretty sure Slugworth wouldn’t even want Miles Austin on his roster if it meant some of Wonka’s secrets.

Please use these tips as a guide of what not to do in trying to trade in fantasy sports.

Ryan Braun Problems

Well folks, we are headed into the All Star break and it’s time to take stock of the first half of the fantasy baseball season. I am currently leading or in second place in all of my leagues, but I am in no mood to celebrate.

Why, you ask?

His name is Ryan Braun.

I was unlucky enough to pick third or fourth in four different leagues this year, and you guessed it…I drafted Braun across the board. I reassured myself with every draft that Braun is a beast. “Don’t worry Dennis, even if anything comes of this PED stuff it won’t be until after the season,” I said to myself. My mutterings became like white noise in the background as I was walking out of drafts with an ACME sized anvil hanging over my head.

You are probably saying, “Hey buddy you knew the risk. Why should I listen to you complain?”

You don’t have to listen. You can go back to your cozy beds filled with the Miguel Cabrera’s of the world. I’ll just be tossing some of my worthless Barry Bonds 1987 Fleer Rookie cards on the fire and reminiscing about times gone by when fantasy owners didn’t have to also be labor lawyers in their spare time.

It’s true that I knew the risk when I drafted him, but who can blame me? I’m a gambler at heart and I have the ATM receipts from Atlantic City to prove it (NOTE: I seem to have misplaced the massive deposit slips I promised my wife though). I saw a mark and I took it down. How could I turn down the clear cut 2nd or 3rd best player at #3 or #4 overall in every draft? It’s like Braun and I were destined to be together.

That last part scares me a little.

The entire reason I stopped doing fantasy baseball back in the late 1990’s in the first place was because of guys like Bret Boone and Barry Bonds. Drafting back then was like playing a dart toss carnival game at the Jersey shore. You would show up to a draft and toss a dart and hope the balloon (player) was filled with juice. Your eighth round pick might break records that were set during the Deadball era. They were wild times.

Now you have to check in Vegas’s black book as well as your draft day cheat sheets just to make a pick. (I think only NBA players are in that actually – see Charles Barkley and Antoine Walker).

I wouldn’t even be sweating the Biogenesis stuff so much if Braun could just play. When he was playing early in the season he wasn’t himself, but he was still very useful. Since then he’s been on every list possible. The disabled list, the bereavement list, the cheating-lying scumbag list. Oh wait that list hasn’t been announced yet, but has been leaked more times than if Pam and Tommy did another sex tape.

Braun has his injured thumb for an excuse, but it’s his head I’m worried about. How do you stare down a 90 MPH fastball when you know your entire legacy and life’s work hangs in the balance of an ongoing investigation? If it is proven that he cheated, Braun will face the biggest backlash the sport has ever seen, hands down. The common fan will never forgive Braun for going after his specimen collector Dino Laurenzi, Jr at a press conference when he happened to win his appeal.

I am more worried about the Brewers than my own fantasy baseball teams. It’s not like they can whip out a Yankee-sized checkbook and replace him. The way their farm system looks makes Mets’ fans pump out their chests. A season-long suspension might single-handedly kill baseball in Milwaukee. The Brewers chose to make him the face of the franchise. He rewarded them with an MVP and they rewarded him with the biggest contract in their history. Now he may kill their playoff hopes for the next ten years.

Don’t cry for me Argentina! Oops, I meant fantasy baseball gods. My fantasy teams won’t be in as bad a shape as the Brewers if Braun gets suspended. I made back-up plans. I even made back-up plans for my back-up plans and should at least keep my head above water. I traded for Chris Davis in the leagues that I could get him early and at a reasonable rate to make up for the homeruns and RBIs. I traded for Desmond Jennings and Starling Marte to make up for the stolen bases. I even took a shot on Jason Heyward using an ultimate buy low package where I sent two waiver wire pick-ups for Cole Hamels and Heyward.

I may be able to fill out a line-up, but I was much happier when Braun was stashed on my disabled list and I didn’t have to think about him every day (like the Yankees with Alex Rodriguez rehabbing in Tampa). Now he’s on the bereavement list and I can’t even clear a bench spot. In my three daily lineup change leagues that has become a big problem.

Braun is in fantasy roster limbo. He could come back after the break and play like an angel delivering my team to a championship while he fights to defend his name. He could be a demon that gets cast off of my roster when his appeal goes down in flames. Or he could just hang around my bench popping his head in and out of my lineup from day to day resembling a shell of his former self.

Either way, the torture of fielding terrible trade offers for Braun has put me in my own little circle of hell. You wouldn’t believe the names that have filled my inbox. At this point I would be happy if I got offered B.J. Upton for Ryan Braun. Not that I would take it. It would just be nice to be offered someone that was actually drafted instead of picked up off the waiver wire the day before.

This article originally appeared at www.fantasyjudgment.com as part of an ongoing diary series.

Evan Longoria Injured

Well another season and another nagging injury for Evan Longoria. This time it’s plantar factitious that has felled the power hitting third baseman of the Tampa Bay Rays. If you drafted Longoria you probably had a back up plan in mind all along, but if you didn’t don’t go looking for any rusty knives just yet, I promise we can get through this.

Where do we start?

First let’s look at our own bench.

Do we have any guys that picked up 3B eligibility while we weren’t looking?

Edwin Encarnacion recently became 3B eligible in Yahoo leagues and you may have never noticed. If so lucky you, plug him in over there and quickly go grab Adam Lind or Eric Hosmer and you’re set for a few weeks.

How about Matt Carpenter? Has he been scoring you runs at 2B and keeping guys that are starting to heat up on the bench? Well slide him over to 3B and plug in the rejuvenated Rickie Weeks and roll with it for a while.

If you’re like me and traded away your insurance policy already, then we are going to need to look at the waiver wire.

1) Anthony Rendon- The kid has played like top draft pick he is after his second call up to the bigs and is still only owned in 37% of Yahoo Leagues. His 2B eligibility may pay dividends down the line as you can move him around your infield.

2) Jose Iglesias- For a player that was supposed to be all glove and no bat he sure as hell looks to be the real deal. His hits aren’t exactly laser show quality, but you can get a nice batting average bump while he’s hot. It won’t last forever, but it may help for a few weeks.

3) Chris Johnson- Another guy that will really only help with one category as he is still hitting over .320. His power numbers won’t help much, but if the Braves lineup starts hitting a little more he could get a nice bump.

4-5) Trevor Plouffe and Mike Moustakas- Plouffe and Moustakas were late round guys that were looking to take the next step towards big time major leaguer this year. Plouffe has been injured and has been in and out of the line-up, but when he has been available he looks to have a lot of fantasy upside. His swing has a lot of power potential and if the middle of the Twins lineup continues to hit he could pick up nice RBI numbers. Moustakas has been a head ache most of the year and has only recently looked to be making strides. His average has creeped up above the .210 mark and he has been driving the ball better. He finally homered yesterday after not doing so in forever. His runs and RBI’s have been missing though because of the struggles of everyone else in the Royals line-up. He could have a huge second half and be a nice utility player for you when Longoria recovers.

6) Some names coming off the DL soon that could be nice backups to Longoria the rest of the year are Jedd Gyorko and Brett Lawrie. Gyorko has shown he is major league ready before injuring his groin and is valuable with his 2B-3B eligibility. Lawrie has been injury plagued as well as ineffective to start the year, and some confidence in the minors may be just what the doctor ordered.

For deeper leagues I would look to Alberto Callaspo and Matt Dominguez to fill in for a short time. Maybe even Lonnie Chisenhall if he gets the AB’s.

Fantasy Baseball Retreads

Garbage Picking

When I was growing up all the kids in the neighborhood couldn’t wait until bulk garbage day. We would jump on our bikes and circle the streets looking for a find. There were streets that didn’t even get a first look either because of the enormous effort it took to pedal up the hill or because of trash that even the dump was embarrassed to have. Other streets were treasure troves that you literally had to be the first to scope out. Weight sets, Bicycles, crossbows, (that’s right I know someone that got a cross-bow from the trash) and even entire baseball card collections would be put to the curb.

I was a big collector even at an early age and would search for old pennants, baseball cards, and any and all sports memorabilia. I once got an entire Ebbets field collection from a neighbor who’s wife decided to clean out the garage while he went fishing. She tossed score books from both the 47 and 55 world series and even a Duke Snider signed Brooklyn Dodgers hat. I couldn’t wait to of course ruin it by playing actual baseball in it. I can still remember wondering how these people could throw out such useful stuff. Some of these things like the exercise equipment still had the price-tags on them.

My mind still works the same way when I stare at the waiver wire in my leagues. Owners hate to be reminded of their bad decisions and having one burn a hole in your bench is tough thing to deal with. Its the same as seeing your clean laundry hanging off of that Body By Jake workout contraption. I look at Rickie Weeks and think of how proud the owner was on draft day thinking he had a 20/20 second-baseman who he could pencil in week in and week out. Mike Moustakas catches the corner of my eye as I scan over the names on the waiver wire and I think of how that GM took the strategy of waiting on a third-baseman and thinking he got 25-30 homers with nice RBI potential way late int he draft. Then there is the young duo of Eric Hosmer and Brandon Belt. Owners thought they were going to get some sneaky steals along with power that eventually had to break out. It had to be this year didn’t it. I mean Hosmer was a top draft pick with big time power prospects and Belt tore up Spring training pitching this year.

Well it’s June 26th and most if not all of these guys are on the waiver wire. I can still see the price-tags, just like on the exercise equipment I used to see on bulk day. Their price tags may read mid round draft pick, but now they are sitting there for free. If you are in a league that starts a middle-infield position or corner-infield position I would really look to pick up all these guys. Just because they were someone else’s trash doesn’t mean they cant be your treasure.

Weeks has put in a ton of time just working on his hitting mechanics and it is paying off. Rickie Weeks over the last 30 days is hitting .393 with a .1228 OPS and 5 homers. That’s in only 56 AB’s as he is in a short term platoon with Scooter Gennett at the moment. Do you really think Scooter and his .220 BA is going to keep Weeks on the bench going forward? I thought not. I would even play Weeks in my utility slot while this hot streak is going. He may not be stealing bases like he has in the past, but with Hart out indefinitely, A-Ram possibly on the move, and Braun’s status very much unclear, Weeks could be a huge part of the middle of this line-up.

All I heard the first month is” Moustakas is going to hit.” It sounded like Herman Edwards giving his support to a shaky kicker. I was still buying in on Moustakas in my deeper leagues until it felt like I was buying a stock of a company that was being looted. The 0 fors piled up and the homers all but disappeared. Well here we are in late June and Moustakas has begun to show signs he may come out of it. Over the last two weeks he is hitting .343 and even starting to get his doubles. The doubles always come first, and then the homers should start to flow.(at least I hope) I noticed this early in the year when Kyle Seager was battling to get out of his early season slump. He had some multi-hit games with a bunch of doubles and before you knew it he was back at respectability. Moustakas is a guy I would jump on if I was hurting at a corner infield spot.

Brandon Belt obviously has a love/hate relationship with Bruce Bochy. One night he looks to be back to being a big part of the line-up batting sixth and the next he is batting eighth behind Andres Torres. Belt has hit .340 over the last two weeks and even contributed a stolen base. The only problem is he is being jerked around constantly and that can be a huge headache for any owner. I like Belt a lot, but until Bochy actually recommits to him. Prop 8 has been shot down as I write this so maybe Bochy can finally step up to the plate. I am steering clear for the time being unless its an NL only league and in those he is already owned.

Eric Hosmer is really turning a corner. I wasn’t a believer when his batting average started to tick up because the power was just not there. Well his stroke is now producing extra base hits and his legs are stealing bases. Over the last two weeks Hosmer is hitting .294 with a .927 OPS and 3 HR’s and 3 SB’s. The power and speed combo is what attracted everyone to Hosmer in the first place, so with it finally showing up its time to think about him again. I’m buying Hosmer in almost all deeper formats. I don’t think he deserves a roster spot yet in 10 team leagues that don’t start a corner infielder or utility, but another week of this and I’m buying there as well.

Grab your bikes (or smart phones) and go scour your neighborhood (waiver-wire) for your trash treasure.

Fantasy League Commissioner Wanted

You don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone. While Cinderella’s early 90’s power ballad may have made me queasy at the time, truer words were truly never spoken. I had no idea how lucky I was that my buddy from age five had been our fantasy football league commissioner for all these years. He was truly unbiased and thoughtful in every situation. Whether it was rule changes, votes for new members, or controversial trades, he always put the integrity of the league first. Over these last 15 years, I now realize I have taken him for granted. I never knew how much he improved my quality of life until I started venturing out into new leagues recently.

I feel like all three major sports leagues in the U.S. could take some notes from my old commissioner. Roger Goodell with the NFL has put himself front and center in all things and only cares about his own legacy. Bud Selig has made MLB an old buddy-buddy league that is full of underhanded dealings and biased rulings. David Stern walks around believing that he made the NBA a must see league, even though it was the league that Magic, Bird and Jordan made. I’m not talking about Gary Bettman because, well this isn’t Canada. Is it?

I have joined a bunch of different leagues the last few years and found the commissioners have closely resembled at least one of the big three. In one league, rules were changed after the draft that clearly benefited the commissioner and his cronies. His Bud Selig impression was not appreciated and I was quickly a one and done league champ. The worst situation was when I joined a dynasty fantasy football league that was clearly run by a Roger Goodell clone. Every correspondence was rank with arrogance. The straw that broke the camel’s back was when he traded for Jimmy Graham and Dez Bryant and gave up Eli Manning and Michael Turner. I died a little inside when I emailed the entire league to ask for some back up with my protests to this trade-rape, and found no backers. When I pressed one league member about why he didn’t protest the trade he said, “It wouldn’t matter if we protested, the commissioner has complete autonomy over the league and will beat down any challenges in the ranks.”

Situations and priorities change, and so does life. Three kids later, an ever growing workload, and free time that would only be envied by an indentured servant has made it impossible for me to take on the responsibility of being a league commissioner. I feel like I would be unbiased, fair, and decent, but alas I am not available for the job.

The ones that are available sadly don’t measure up. Think about it…who in their mid-thirties to early forties has time to run fantasy leagues? Single guys in their thirties or forties have the time, but do we really want them in charge? They are probably single for a reason. They have either never had their stuff together long enough to impress a mate or have been found wanting by the opposite sex (or same sex) when given the chance. Whether they lied, cheated, or stole none of these traits make for a good commissioner. Ideally, you want your commissioner to be like the dad from Growing Pains, not Comic Book Guy from The Simpsons (Worst Commissioner Ever).

My real frustration comes from the laziness that has permeated some of these leagues. Instead of having an honest commissioner make fair decisions on trades, I have been forced to deal with league votes. How can a league vote ever be fair to a team in a playoff position? It’s like having ten angry jurors deciding your fate. Teams ahead of you have the bias of not wanting you to catch them. Teams below you want to catch up to you and will not be happy if you strengthen your squad. Then there is the team you are playing that week that has the ultimate bias.

Recently I made a trade that had to be put to a league vote. The GM that I was playing that week told me he was voting against the trade solely out of spite. The trade would have given me a little more power and he didn’t want me to make up a disadvantage in homeruns that week. I had to sit on my hands and hope everyone made a fair and unbiased decision. It was gut-wrenching, but it eventually passed. (P.S. Chris Davis hit a two-run homerun on Sunday for me to tie in homeruns and give me the RBI category)

So if you are reading this and feel you are a man among men, please step up to the plate and be a league commissioner. Fantasy leagues need you, I need you, and more importantly, America needs you!

This article also appears at www.FantasyJudgment.com as part of a weekly series called Coach Esser’s Diary.

Waiver Wire Pick Ups: Trade Pieces or Trash?

When going through a long season of fantasy baseball you inevitably will receive bad trade offers. Some trade offers are more offensive than others. None more so than when someone offers you a recent waiver wire pickup as a key piece in a trade. There are exceptions to this rule (big time prospects like Yasiel Puig and Wil Myers, or guys who were prematurely dropped such as Jason Heyward or Josh Hamilton), but most of the time you will be offered names like Jedd Lowrie and James Loney. (Sigh!)

I feel like sites should have built-in controls where GMs can’t offer waiver pick ups with out a two week waiting period. Maybe a little disclaimer next to the players name that says he was picked up on this date. Like a freshness label on a bottle of beer. It would be like a little scarlet letter that would eventually wear off after certain amount of time. This would relieve a lot of aggravation as well as help inexperienced GMs save a little face.

While two weeks might be a nice start, the real waiting period for seeing if a waiver pick up is truly a trade asset is right around six weeks. The six week sample size is enough to weed out the occasional hot stretch for a veteran hitter and soft schedule for a pitcher. For example Vernon Wells started out on fire (.300 6 HR and .910 OPS in April) and was widely picked up in 12 and 14 team leagues after week 2. He has since gone back to his late career ways (hitting around .230 and popping out constantly) and can be seen on your local waiver wires. While experienced fantasy baseball players knew this was just a streaking player other GMs actually tried to capitalize on his hot start and offer him in trades around their leagues.

The subsequent message board and social media ridicule after a bad trade is offered should be enough to discourage naive GMs, but some seem to be immune to these tactics. They plug away week after week picking up the Jhoulys Chacins and Ricky Nolascos of the fantasy baseball world and think they can turn them into Cole Hamels and Doug Fisters through trades. God bless their tiny little brains and their efforts, but something has to be done.

I try to chalk it up to naivete or ignorance, but stupidity shouldn’t be ruled out. The topper of these bad offers was recently brought up during a Twitter conversation with @fantasytrade411, when he was venting about a GM actually offering him someone he had just dropped! I can’t say this has ever happened to me, but if I did receive an offer for one of my cast offs a day after dropping him my eyebrows may jump clear off my forehead.

Even with prized prospects I don’t generally offer them in trades until they have played at least a few weeks in the bigs. I don’t want to burn any bridges with other GMs if the prospect doesn’t at least stay in the bigs for an extended showing. Plus I would rather know if I am in possession of a stud before I sell a player. With rookies the six week waiting period would be ideal. You need four to six weeks to see if the league makes adjustments to the player or if the player is able to make adjustments to the league. (Didi Gregorius a perfect example) Jackie Bradley Jr. had many GMs jumping the gun when he got off to a fast start with the Red Sox in April after he surprisingly made the big club out of spring training. If you were unlucky enough to trade for him, chalk it up to a lesson learned.

You can never sell too high for a recent call up, and Puig is a perfect example. His value couldn’t be higher right now and selling is a must. I recently made a trade that netted me Chris Davis, Desmond Jennings, Cole Hamels, and Chris Sale. My side of the trade was centered around Puig, and included Kyle Seager, Patrick Corbin, the versatile Todd Frazier, and Justin Masterson. While my haul may seem a little one sided, it is not the most I have seen traded for the Cuban phenom. I have seen dinged up stars such as Bryce Harper, Matt Kemp, and even Roto golden boy Ryan Braun sent packing for Puig. While all of these scenarios are slightly ludicrous and reactionary, you can see the value people see in Puig’s unique talents.

Veterans picked up off the waiver wire are a completely different story. Most GMs like myself will pick up and ride a streaking player, but never think about trading him because the value just wouldn’t be there. It takes a few months of a veteran playing well above his career numbers before he attains any trade value. James Loney, Jedd Lowrie, and Michael Young have all had some hot stretches, but you wouldn’t see me trying to trade for any of them. I might lose my mind completely if I get offered Matt Joyce for Jason Heyward again in my deep league.

(I need at least another month of Heyward struggles before I entertain that one.)

If I offered another GM the hot hitting Adam Lind in a trade right now, what would he be worth? He’s 29 and has hit 35 homers in a season before, but he has always been unable to consistently hit lefties. He most likely won’t be able to touch his 2009 numbers again in his career. Even though he is hitting .350 and will hit over 25 homers he would barely fetch me a light hitting Eric Hosmer in a trade right now.

The real swings in trade value come when former top prospects seem to turn a corner. They can go from waiver wire riders to trade untouchables in less than half a season. Carlos Gomez and Chris Davis flipped the switch last year, and Dominic Brown seems to have unleashed his full potential this year. Just a few weeks into the season Brown could be seen on the waiver wire, but with his unbelievable May you would be lucky to get him in a trade for Jay Bruce. Could you imagine those words being said on draft day? “I’ll trade you Jay Bruce for Dominic Brown.”

I can’t wait to see what Wil Myers will command in a trade if he goes deep in his first game with the Rays. Without even taking a swing I can already see GMs trading Rios or Cruz for him. If he gets off to a fast start it could be Beltran or Holiday. And if he even comes close to Puig’s start the sky is the limit.

Don’t Set It and Forget It

Fantasy baseball is not a “set it and forget it” endeavor. You don’t draft a team and send it out into the world without having to constantly tinker with it. You may have three different players play second base for you in any given month while also having a different frontline starter based on that particular week’s matchups. If we listed all the closers that will inevitably be jumping in and out of our rosters we could be here all day.

Setting your lineup is a lot like playing the stock market. You can only ignore the trends for so long until you miss the boat. Whether it be buying, selling, dropping or picking up players, you have to look at all the available information in a timely manner. Being aware of the vital statistics can make a stock or a free agent a must buy or a player on your roster an instant drop.

Sometimes a player is just getting extremely lucky and his statistics are heading for a correction. I am trying to avoid stepping into these bear-traps, but it can be difficult to differentiate between luck and player turning a corner. You may get burned by not checking his BAPIP (batting average on balls in play) or his FB/GB statistics. Luckily, there are so many resources for today’s fantasy GM’s that weren’t available just a few years ago. I can go to a multitude of sites to see all the vital statistics and more while even the free apps from sites like Yahoo break down the basic statistics over time periods. I can notice a player is hot while watching a series on TV, check my phone and see he is hitting .350 this month and then go to any site to see if his power is coming as well.

Too many GM’s treat their lineups like they are mutual funds or pensions. They buy in and either through laziness or ineptitude let them twist in the wind. While they spend their nights catching up on Breaking Bad and old reruns of South Park (Editor’s Note: there is nothing wrong with watching either of these shows), their lineups go through ups and downs not seen since Enron. You offer them a trade and they literally have to check the site to see who is on their roster.

I, on the other hand, tend to be overly attentive, almost to the detriment of my free time (hmmm, maybe that is why I’m only on Season 2 of Breaking Bad). I tend to tinker constantly as I check my lineups key statistics and try and maximize every week in my head to head league. I read every article possible on would-be call-ups so that I can try to solve some of my team’s issues without trying to trade. If I am lagging early in the week in stolen bases I will put Starling Marte or Brett Gardner into my lineup. If I am behind in runs scored, then Matt Carpenter will start at almost any position. Power is tougher to find coming off the bench, but I may have just recently found a few gems.

The fact that my league is position specific for outfield has been a real challenge. Right field has been considerably shallow and I have been forced to play Carpenter or Adrian Gonzalez there while I have Corey Hart stashed on the DL. If I played Gonzalez in RF, then I suffer at first base, and vice-versa. Then along came a Cuban defector named Yasiel Puig. You may have heard of him. He has exploded on the scene and solidified my line-up with his power and speed.

I know what you’re saying – hold your horses buddy. It’s okay to get excited, but let’s not pretend he’s the second coming. But what if he is the next Mike Trout or Bryce Harper? It would be like adding a top 10 pick in the middle of the season for nothing. How can you not get over-excited? I know I am having trouble tempering my excitement and evaluating his current worth.

He could be a blip on the screen of my season or he could be guy to put me over the top. We will all have to wait and see. Many of my colleagues have been saying to sell high as we have all seen players do this before only to crash back down to earth, or worse, to the minors. I even polled a few fantasy gurus to see what Puig was being traded for and names like Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton were mentioned. I would jump at the chance to acquire any of those guys, but that is not what is being offered to me at this point. On the other hand, I am playing the wait and see game. I am doing the old “I came with nothing and I’ll leave with nothing if God will’s it.” I just don’t know if I can live with trading him for a marginal player if he goes on to play at even half of what he is currently showing.

There is a ton of risk with what I am doing as the Dodgers looked to have a full outfield with Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier when the year began. Crawford and Kemp are currently on the DL, and Ethier has struggled for most of the season including getting benched before Puig was called up. I am banking on Puig making it impossible to send him back down with his play on the field. He was signed to a huge free agent contract so he is not one of these rookies whose service time is an issue and he has been setting records with every base hit. He is electrifying a fan base that needed to wake up and probably hasn’t been this excited about a player since Fernandomania was running wild 30 years ago. He also has gone from batting leadoff to batting fourth after only a week. He has already arguably shown more potential in one week in the big leagues then Ethier has in seven years with the Dodgers.

Puig is not the only streaking player who has joined my team recently. Adam Lind’s current form couldn’t be ignored as he hit over .400 over the last month and is even forcing his way into the lineup against lefties. When the Blue Jays were forced to give up the DH in National League parks they decided to play Edwin Encarnacion at third base so that they could play Lind at first base to keep his hot bat in the lineup. I know he probably won’t stay hot for long, but if I can get a productive month out of him then I am ahead of the game. If there was a timeline for my lineup at first base it would read Gonzalez-Carpenter-Loney-and now Lind. It might not be as easy as drafting Prince Fielder and trotting him out week after week, but if I end up winning the title it will be that much sweeter with all the hard work I put in.

This article originally was featured at www.FantasyJudgment.com

Don’t Drink The Sand

The perception of starting pitching depth on a fantasy baseball team is the same mirage that exists with respect to depth at running back in fantasy football leagues. You are always one pitch or one carry away from being in a bind. With pitchers, it could be age and frailty such as with Andy Pettitte and Jake Peavy. Or perhaps it is flawed mechanics that have caused your fantasy ace, Stephen Strasburg, to start drawing comparisons to Mark Prior. From forearm tightness to sore shoulders, fantasy GMs are constantly trying to avoid season-ending injuries to their starting pitchers. On the other hand, running backs are just a few fumbles or a lethal hit away from being relegated to the bench. The mere sight of your player on the week’s injury report will send many GM’s running to the waiver wire. In the end, GM’s who thought they had plenty of depth at the position realize how shallow their rosters really are.

Coming into this fantasy baseball season, the best advice I received was to grab as many quality starting pitchers as possible. Sure, draft the great position players early but make sure I stockpile as many arms as I could because you never know when injuries may occur. I heeded this advice throughout the season thus far and picked up additional quality starting pitching even though I thought I had sufficient depth at the position to start the year. I drafted Adam Wainwright, Max Scherzer, Jake Peavy, Brandon Morrow, Julio Teheran, Andy Pettitte, Jason Hammel, and Dan Haren. I quickly dropped Hammel and Haren for Shelby Miller and Justin Masterson. I then dropped Pettitte for Patrick Corbin as I didn’t want another injury prone starter in my rotation.

We all knew Peavy was eventually going to be on the disabled list…we just didn’t know when. Drafting Peavy was the equivalent of drafting Ryan Mathews or Darren McFadden in a fantasy football league. Doing either of these things requires you back them up with quality options. Peavy had been performing well up until his last two outings. I was relieved it was an injury (non-displaced rib fracture) and not ineffectiveness that caused his recent poor outings.

Well, the dreaded time has come for many fantasy owners including myself. While I lost Peavy to the DL, he was not alone. Johnny Cueto, Stephen Strasburg and Brendon Morrow were also placed on the disabled list. Morrow’s DL stint is a blessing after the way he has pitched. But for Cueto, he just recently came back and started to look like his old self. However, Strasburg is the one that scares me the most. He was likely drafted very high and was counted on to perform at an almost Verlander/Kershaw level. That hasn’t happened up to date and now he is injured again. I’m pretty sure GM’s are cursing at themselves watching Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki tearing it up while Strasburg is on the mend.

I am happy to roll out my rotation week after week and try and weather this injury storm. I am reluctant to trade my pitching because this is what can happen. I may think I’m six deep at quality starters, but I’m always one pitch, batted ball, or slip in the shower away from combing the waiver wire.

This article was originally featured at www.FantasyJudgment.com

A Reactionary Tale

Patience is the name of the game when waiting for a top draft pick to play up to their potential. While MLB teams try to boost their prospects’ confidence with long stays in hitter-friendly minor league destinations or playing them in low pressure situations in the big leagues, fantasy GM’s are not afforded such luxuries. We do not have the ability to drop our struggling draft picks in the batting order or send them to the minors to work it out (hey Ike Davis, I’m talking to you). We can only banish them to our bench and hope they eventually play themselves back into our good graces.

A lot of GMs are demonstrating the patience of a two year old while waiting for their players to get back on track. I have seen last year’s NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey actually come across the waiver wire in one of my leagues. While Dickey’s WHIP is not what it was with the Mets last year (1.31 vs. 1.05), his strikeout rate has been getting better over his last few starts. I think the adjustments to switching leagues, as well as early season injuries, have gotten Dickey off to his rocky start. Who knew knuckleballers could suffer minor injuries that affect their statistics? If Dickey can cut down on the walks and stay healthy he can make it back to the top of a fantasy rotation.

Julio Teheran was every experts’ pick to be the next big thing coming out of spring training. While Matt Harvey and Shelby Miller have performed like fantasy studs to start the year Teheran has slowly built up a little steam. He showed poor command and little fantasy value as he started the year cold. He started the year with a whimper as he shelled by the lowly Cubs. He was able to escape without a loss thanks to the Upton brothers and Carlos Marmol, but his next few starts were not much better. He has slowly worked his way back to fantasy relevance ever since. His 9.00 ERA has come down to 3.99 and his record is a respectable 3-1. His 5.4/9 K rate and 1.35 WHIP show that he is not yet a fantasy star as many predicted, but if his current form continues he could be a nice pitcher to have on your roster (especially when he faces the offensively-challenged Mets and Marlins within the division).

Whenever I look at a surprise name on the waiver-wire I am reminded of a fantasy football all time blunder in one of my fantasy football leagues. The year was 2001 and everyone and their mother were looking for the next Terrell Davis to take them to the championship. Priest Holmes had moved from the world champion Baltimore Ravens to the Kansas City Chiefs and looked like he could be a nice RB2 if he was given a chance. After week two of the NFL season Holmes had a combined 51 yards rushing with zero touchdowns. A very good friend jettisoned him to the waiver-wire and the rest is history. Holmes rushed for over 1,500 yards with 600 yards receiving to go along with ten touchdowns. He went from a waiver-wire refugee to a fantasy football stud.

I refuse to be the next guy to drop a future fantasy MVP before the season even heats up. I saw my friend desperately try to make up for his big mistake, eventually trading for Holmes a few years later just so he could put that miss-step behind him. I will place Josh Hamilton and B.J. Upton right where they belong, sitting next to each other on my bench while I weather the storm with the Jason Kubel’s and Dominic Brown’s of the world. Just because your guys go through a cold streak or are at the top of Yahoo’s most dropped charts doesn’t mean you have to panic. Just try to be patient and think of Priest Holmes running into the end zone for someone else’s team.

This article was originally posted at www.FantasyJudgment.com