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Episode 003: The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Episode 003 of The Fantasy Coach Podcast

Talking Fantasy Baseball for Monday 5/19 thru Sunday 5/25

Featuring Ian Riley (@Ian_Riley)of Rotoexperts.com

Fantasy Baseball Expert Ian Riley

Ian Riley of RotoExperts.com

About My Guest: Ian’s first exposure to the world of Fantasy sports came in the form of Strat-O-Matic baseball back in the summer of 1994 at the tender age of 17. That introduction has led to a love affair with both Fantasy Baseball and Football that is now rapidly approaching two decades. 
 
His writing career began in August of 2008 with OPENSports.com, where he was discovered by the one-and-only David Gonos. While there his work also appeared on FantasyLive.com and the Fantasy Football draft kit on FoxSports.com. 

Ian brought his talents to RotoExperts in March of 2011, where he writes his weekly OSR Report (Observations, Speculations and Revelations). He also regularly appears on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio with Scott Engel and Adam Ronis.

Episode Summary: Ian and I talk Fantasy Baseball for over an hour to get you prepared for the upcoming week.  The fact that Ian and I know each other so well really comes through on the episode even when we disagree on some players.  Make sure to listen all the way to the end when we discuss our top waiver wire adds for the week.

  • Intro
  • We get to know our guest a little and talk about how small a world it can be in Fantasy Sports
  • Fantasy Baseball News and Notes-Everything you need to know to be ready for the Fantasy Baseball week
  • Two Start Starting Pitchers-Potential Streamers and some you may want to avoid even if you picked them up.
  • Sell High Candidates-Who needs to be traded for the biggest haul…
  • Buy Low Targets
  • Waiver Wire Adds
  • Guys you need to drop in your leagues.

You can Download this episode as well as the previous two on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

Once again I would like to thank my guest, Ian Riley of RotoExperts, for spending so much time with me on a Sunday evening as well as C-Quel or The Mighty Shiek as he’s known for the amazing Intro to The Fantasy Coach Podcast.

 

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Fantasy Baseball: Waiver and Watch out List

Some of the hot names available on the Waiver Wire in a league near you:

Drew Pomeranz

  • Drew Pomeranz (Oakland A’s-SP) Pomeranz is the beneficiary of the Dan Straily demotion to Sacremento.  While Straily was a nice target late in drafts for his strikeout upside his tendency to give up the untimely home run finally caught up to him.  Keep an eye on Straily’s progress in Triple A as he could be called up before to long with Tommy Milone not lighting it up in the rotation.  Now onto Pomeranz.  Pomeranz was top prospect that just couldn’t break through to the big club in Cleveland and was eventually shipped to the Colorado Rockies in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal.  Pomeranz struggled in Colorado and eventually the Rockies decided to eat their losses and let Pomeranz go for the price of Brett Anderson from the Oakland A’s.  Pomeranz has been reinvigorated by the change of scenery and has been pitching well out of the A’s bullpen before getting a chance to blank the Mariners for 5 innings  in a spot start during a double header last week.  Pomeranz was a top 30 prospect before fizzling out in Colorado and could be a nice addition to your fantasy baseball rotation, especially in deep leagues, where injuries around the Major Leagues have fantasy managers scrambling.  I have tried to grab him in most formats where my league size is 12 and up.  I’m hoping we have another Jesse Chavez on our hands, but I’ll settle for what we expected from Straily.
  • Cody Allen (Cleveland Indians-RP) Allen was the first name at the top of the list as managers were scrambling to replace John Axford in their fantasy bullpens.  Well it seems Terry Francona isn’t looking for a long term replacement at closer and wants Axford to work his way back into the role.  I was high on Axford as a late round sleeper closer in the build up to fantasy drafts, but in the back of my head I had trouble getting over the fact that he couldn’t take the job back from Jim Henderson in Milwaukee last season.  Whether it’s trouble with his pitching mechanics or he’s tipping his pitches again, I really don’t know if he CAN get the job back if one of the other Cleveland relievers run away with it.  The problem is it’s going to be closer by committee in Cleveland for the time being and Allen isn’t the only one to lay claim to the closer’s role.  Bryan Shaw has been lights out as well this year and picked up a save in that role on Sunday in 9 pitches.  If I’m an Axford owner I’m hanging onto Axford and picking up either Allen or Shaw in the short term.  Personally in very deep leagues I snuck in sneaky cheap bids on Shaw and hope that he can run away with it.  If he doesn’t I’m sure one of the million players currently clogging up my DL will take the spot come June 1st.
  • Rafael Montero (New York Mets-SP) Montero was always going to be the first of the Mets triple A prospects to get a shot in the rotation because of arbitration entanglements, but Noah Syndergaard  struggled to start the season and Montero has kept up his strikeout stuff in the mean time.  Jenrry Mejia could be headed to the bullpen to make room for Montero in the Mets rotation and it could be a boon for your fantasy team.  Montero has a lot of the things I’m looking for when I need a prospect to save my fantasy rotation.  He is called up to a pitcher’s park and has a better than 9 K per 9 Innings ratio.  The Mets defense is the only drawback for me liking more, but I see Montero as a must grab in any league larger than 12 and of course for NL only leagues.
  • Chase Headley (San Diego padres-3B) headley struggled out of the gate this year just like most of the Padres offensive players and then was forced to the disabled list with a strained calf.  A ton of fantasy GMs jumped ship when Headley hit the DL as they saw that as the last straw.  Personally I am grabbing Headley where I can because he has all the ingredients to pay off.  He’s in a contract year, he is way off his career number (even if those are inflated by an outlier season) and he also holds that special value as the one that got away.  There is nothing like picking up someone’s cast off and having him light it up when he plays for your team.  I have seen it time and time again where the amateur fantasy owner can’t get over the fact that his castoff is lighting it up for someone else and ends up making a lopsided trade to get that player back on their squad.

Watch out!  These players could be playing themselves into a DL or minor league stint:

  • Mike Moustakas (Kansas City Royals-3B)  The struggles just won’t stop for this immensely talented pain in my butt.  In all seriousness I will gladly admit that I drank from the Moustakas has finally found it fountain this Spring Training and I was once again wrong.
  • Chris Archer (Tampa Bay Rays-SP)  Archer has struggled for a few outings now and his control is what worries me.  If it was just getting hit he clould make some adjustments, but his command has really become an issue.  In 10 league teams I would consider dropping him for a more solid option.
  • Clay Buchholtz (Boston Red Sox-SP)  Buchholtz has not looked like himself since spring training.  He is giving up hits in bunches and missing less and less bats as he struggles to get outs.  I actually uttered the words He’s Dead To Me on the Fantasy Black Book Show on Sirius XM this weekend and I think I should clarify that a little bit.  I’m holding on to him in the hopes that they put him on the DL to correct whatever the issue is that is going on with a guy that I thought could be a nice late round gamble.
  • Dan Uggla (Atlanta Braves-2B)  Uggla is going to be DFA before the year is through.  This was inevitable, but the Braves haven’t decided who is going to be the one to get the first shot as a full time replacement.  Tommmy La Stella could be coming up from the minors when he’s ready and could help teams in larger leagues that need some BA help and maybe even runs if he gets to hit in front of Freddie Freeman and Justin Upton.  Ramiro Pena is better a s a bench bat and glove and using him full time at 2B would hurt the Braves more than it would help.  Stear clear for now.

Situations to monitor:

  • Alex Fernandez is scheduled for an MRI in Los Angeles and just typing this has me shaking a little as I am not diversified enough when it comes to shares of Fernandez.
  • Alex Wood will be heading to the bullpen in Atlanta as Gavin Floyd will get a chance to stick in the rotation.  I am keeping Wood on my bench everywhere I have him because he will eventually be back in the rotation and has proved that he’s a fantasy asset as a starter.  The Braves can limit his innings by putting him in the bullpen now and continue to ride the resurgence of Aaron Harang. (while it lasts…….)

Funny Side note:

Carlos Carrasco (5.81 ERA) beat out both Aaron Harang (2.98 ERA) and Josh Tomlin(2.13 ERA) for the fifth starter job in Cleveland and this is just another example of Cleveland having absolutely no luck….

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Rum-Springer (George Springer Hysteria)

Well the news of Goerge Springer’s call up to the Houston Astros came down last night like a lightning bolt from Mount Olympus.  Twitter went wild and fantasy owners everywhere went scrambling for their phones to see if Springer was on the waiver wire.  I think the analogy holds water as most owners who drafted Springer in redraft and keeper leagues view him as a Greek God who will come and save their team.

George Springer a god?

Everyone Loves A Rookie

Projecting rookies is a funny thing.  Trying to weigh the minor league numbers against what we can expect at the big league level is almost a futile past time.  It’s like trying to figure out why the Diamonbacks are keeping Archie Bradley in the minor leagues.  Your guess is as good as mine.  (If you leave a comment about Super 2 rules and arbitration eligibility I will hunt you down. Joking…not joking.)

Even with all those questions hanging in the air most fantasy baseball owners are guilty of overvaluing rookies.  It’s a sickness that seems to plague almost every league I join.  8 out of 12 owners going into this year thought they were drafting Jose Reyes when they took Billy Hamilton over players like Alex Gordon and Jayson Werth.  They ended up with Michael Bourn.  I’ll never understand it fully, but you’re damn well sure I will try and take advantage of it every chance I get.

Even in redraft leagues the value of Springer is almost off the charts as of this very moment.  People believe they drafted Carlos Gonzalez or Andrew McCutchen in the 15th round and if you want to trade for him now that he’s making his debut tonight, you will have to pay close to that amount.  It’s madness!  Yes, I’m excited about Springer, but if he has anywhere near the value Puig had during his torrid start to last year, you better believe I will trade him.

If Springer gets off to a fast start it will be like watching the teenage Amish run around Pennsylvania during Rumspringa.  That’s right I went there.  The GM’s in your leagues that drafted Springer will be having their very own version of Rum-Springer as they run around patting themselves on the back with every stolen base or extra-base hit. You’ll get trade offers of  Springer and Gray for Cargo and Darvish.  Don’t laugh…just wait, you’ll see that these Springer crazed individuals will only get bolder and bolder as Springer plays well.

My R.O.S. projections are probably going to end up on the low side of everyone else’s.  I have Springer hitting .288 with 17 homers, 24 steals, 58 runs and 60 RBIs.  Don’t get me wrong those are really solid numbers, but I wouldn’t be trading Chris Davis or Edwin Encarnacion (two underperforming sluggers) to acquire Springer in redraft leagues.  In keeper leagues his price tag will be even more, but you better be willing to eat a ton of strikeouts to get him.

Let me know what you would give up to get Springer, sight unseen, in keeper and redraft leagues in the comment section.  Maybe we’ll discuss it when I make an appearance on The Fantasy Black Book -fantasy sports show-on SiriusXM Satellite radio with hosts Dan Strafford and Joe Pisapia.

P.S. Here’s Springer’s first Major League hit courtesy of Drew Silva

 

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Garbage Picking

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Watch

Fantasy Baseball owners are as bad as toddlers when it comes to patience.  They want the results now and two bad starts or two tough weeks at the plate is just too much for them to take.  They’ll jump ship before a distress signal has even been sent.  Leagues with limited or no DL slots make this time of year exciting to watch the drop section of your league’s transaction log.  Remember it’s always better to take the bad end of a trade then drop a potential asset.  No matter what I say or do I will never change the average owner, so I have to just sit back and garbage pick through their drops.

Leonys Martin owners haven't had a lot to smile about so far.

Leonys Martin owners haven’t had a lot to smile about so far.

Erik Johnson- Chicago White Sox- Starting Pitcher

Johnson had a lot of helium in early drafts before Alex Wood and Yordano Ventura stole all the pre-draft hype.  Through his first two starts Johnson looked like he was going to prove that his draft stock deserved to be falling by looking very hittable.  Those who dropped him may be kicking themselves after watching him dominate the Red Sox lineup yesterday to the tune of 9 strike outs in 6 and a 1/3 innings.  Johnson is a fringe pitcher in 12 team mixed, but is a must roster in any larger leagues.  His strike out upside is just better than what you probably have at the bottom of your rosters.

Dexter Fowler- Houston Astros – Center Fielder

Fowler started out of the gates hot and owners were patting themselves on the back just like last year that they took him late in drafts, but an illness has really sapped Fowler for the last few weeks and owners are starting to panic.  He has been dropped in a ton of leagues for streaming types like David Murphy or Dayan Viciedo and that was a mistake. I am not a huge fan of Fowler.  I’m not one of these guys that think he will all of a sudden put it all together and be a premier outfielder. (some people actually believe that.) I think he’s a serviceable fourth or fifth outfielder to have who can fill power and speed categories when you’re in a pinch.  He should be rostered in in all 12 team mixed leagues with at least 5 bench spots.

Kyle Seager- Seattle Mariners- Third Baseman

Seager is off to another slow start this year.  Last season he was dropped almost everywhere in 12 team mixed leagues only to see him become a valuable asset down the stretch.  He no longer holds second base eligibility,  but third base isn’t the deepest position in the league.  With players like Moustakas, Sandoval, Lawrie and Freese struggling and Middlebrooks and Beltre hurting it makes hanging on to Seager that much harder.  The reason I say harder is because owners see third-baseman like Marcus Semien and Trevor Plouffe flying off the waiver wire while they sit on their hands.  I believe owners should just keep Seager on the bench if they can.  He’s too valuable as a third-baseman that has the ability to hit 20+ homers and steal 10 bases.

Khris Davis-Milwaukee Brewers-Left Fielder

Davis being dropped is an example of expectations being too high in the fantasy draft process.  People were punting homers in the middle of their drafts thinking they were going to grab Davis late and get a potential 25-30 homer guy.  That is a lot to ask of a young player.  I still like Davis a lot, but I wasn’t banking on him as my steady 3rd Outfielder.  Don’t cut bait on Davis just yet, unless there’s something crazy on the waiver wire.  Keep him on your bench until he gets his feet under him and starts to get better pitches to hit.  In leagues of 14 or bigger I wouldn’t think of dropping him yet.  The Jason Kubel’s of the world will always be there to pick up if Davis is still struggling in a month or two.

Leonys Martin-Texas Rangers- Center Fielder

Martin is caught up in the downward spiral that is the Texas Rangers.  The injuries to the pitching staff and lineup have lumped a lot of pressure on players that aren’t used to shouldering it.  Martin’s spot in the lineup was always going to keep his numbers somewhat down, but he has gotten off to much slower start than I would have thought.  He’s got zero extra base hits and only two steals so I can understand the frustration.  Martin is another one I am holding on to with all my might and I’m even trying to target as a secondary throw in in trades.  When the Rangers get healthy and the heat picks up in Texas I expect Martin to break out.

Some studs that I have seen or heard hit the waiver wire.  Allen Craig (Dan Strafford just told me about this one), Wilin Rosario, and David Ortiz.

Some other guys people might be losing patience for that you should pick up.  Brett Lawrie, Danny Salazar, Homer Bailey, Billy Butler and Xander Bogaerts.  I wish I played in more leagues where they hit the wire!

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Waiver Watch

Waiver Watch: Pitchers For Week 1

James Paxton Fantasy Baseball

Starting Pitchers:

James Paxton:  The flame thrower from Seattle started out of the gates fast.  The big thing with Paxton is you’ll get a nice bump in strikeouts and strikeouts are as hard as homers to find and there’s nothing like picking up a nice supply week 1 of the Fantasy Baseball season.  Jump on while you can and look at my Mariners’ article for the reasons why I love this team.

Scott Kazmir:  Fantasy Baseball owners were not believing that Kazmir could do it again.  The funny thing is people drafted Ubaldo Jimenez even though he signed with the Orioles to pitch in a hitter’s park in a nightmare of a division, but wouldn’t touch Kazmir in Oakland.  I wasn’t going to overpay for Kazmir in drafts, but I did take him pretty late where I could and picked him up off the waiver wire where he went undrafted because he was just too good to be sitting there.  He’s available in a lot of 12 team leagues and that just shouldn’t be the case.  Go grab him and hope he holds up physically.

Jenrry Mejia:  Mejia can pitch.  He’s a lot like Johnny Cueto and looks like a lesser version of Pedro Martinez.  Think…Pedro towards the end of his career.  He’ll throw a hook in any count and spot a fastball that only runs 90MPH, but looks 97 after his off speed pitches.  He would have been a lot of analysts favorite sleeper if he had won the 5th starter job for the Mets earlier in Spring Training.  Don’t expect big K numbers, but he’ll help your ERA and WHIP.

Erasmo Ramirez: The Eraser is a personal favorite of mine, but not because I think he’s going to be a top 30 starter or anything.  It’s just the way he pitches.  He spots his fastball and puts a little on and takes a little off all while having a very good change up.  I think his ceiling is Kuroda-esque.

Jake Odorizzi:  I have no doubt that Odorizzi is going to have a big impact on many fantasy teams this season.  I think he has the ability to pitch well enough to have the Rays think twice about giving Hellickson back his rotation spot and he could keep his spot if David Price is moved before the trade deadline.  Odorizzi is one of these young starters that actually found a change up that works early in his career.  If he can continue to hone that change up he can help you win your league.

Nate Eovaldi:  Eovaldi is an underrated commodity in fantasy baseball right now.  The Marlins are an up and coming team (that is currently playing above their talent level on offense) that should help Eovaldi continue to build on his skills.  He is an injury concern and is known as a one-pitch pitcher, but he has tried to work in a league average change up that just might make his hard sinker look even harder.

Jake Odorizzi Change Up

Closers:

Before I start, I know that many of you have had these guys picked up already in your leagues.  These lists are mainly for Fantasy Baseball GM’s that do weekly waivers or Faab.

Sergio Santos:  Santos is one fill-in closer that I would actually target.  There is no guarantee that Casey Janssen will make it back quickly and even if he does, Santos may have already nailed down the closer’s role.  Of the injury fill-ins he’s my top guy.

Jose Valverde:  I was lucky enough to watch a lot of the Mets’ spring training (wait did I just say I was lucky to watch that?, Oh never mind.) and it was clearly visible that there was something wrong with Bobby Parnell.  His velocity was way down and he had no command.  Luckily for the Mets they had given Valverde a shot to make the team and now it looks like he may be the closer for the rest of the year.  (I know that Parnell may try to rehab, but I have my doubts that it will work.)  The Mets have some decent starters (Gee, Wheeler, and Mejia) and not much offense so there should be some opportunity for Valverde to get some saves.

Francisco Rodriguez:  K-Rod is back in the closer’s spotlight thanks to Jim Henderson being out of sorts.  The Brewers strongly hinted that the job will be Henderson’s if and when he gets his stuff together.  Personally I would stay away if I could, but if your league weighs saves heavily then you could do worse than K-Rod.

Josh Fields:  Bo Porter, Houston Astros Manager, is going with the company line that his relievers just get outs when called upon.  I think Fields will get the bulk of the early opportunities and if he pitches the way he did the other night when he nailed down his first save against the Yankees, he may just shift the company stance.

Matt Lindstrom/Nate Jones:  An injury to Jones slowed hi this spring and it gave Matt Lindstrom the chance to win the White Sox closer’s job out of Spring Training.  Both have struggled so far, but I think it will eventually be Jones that wins the job.  For now I would stay away unless I had unlimited DL spots and then I would take a chance on Jones since he’s currently on the DL for a Glute problem.

Jonathan Broxton:  Broxton looks to be the closer in Cincinnati until Aroldis Chapman is fully recovered.  Broxton should be coming off the DL some time next week and Hoover has pitched himself out of the temporary closer situation.  The Reds have a very good rotation that could lead to a bunch of opportunities for Broxton in the short term.

***Check Back Tomorrow For Position Players***

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Seattle Mariners Future

Robinson Cano leads the Seattle Mariners

Robinson Cano Has A Lot To Smile About in Seattle

TheSeattle Mariners future is now folks.  I thought they were a year or two away just as recently as the beginning of spring training, but they are becoming a team that can not be overlooked on the field, or int he box score.

Oh the all important box score for the fantasy baseball player.  It used to be we, as fantasy baseball players and fanatics, would only check the Seattle box score when we either had King-Felix (Felix Hernandez) pitching that night or when we were facing him.  The only other time I may have caught myself checking the Mariners’ position players  is when I was completely injury ravaged and wanted to see who was actually alive and starting for them.

James Paxton Box Score

So that’s last night’s box score from the Mariners game.  Just glancing at it will let you know that James Paxton had a very good night.  This early in the season he more than likely didn’t pitch into the 9th inning so what ever he did he didn’t give up a run to a decent offensive baseball team in the Angels.  In reality if you watched the game you would have seen James Paxton look like one of the most dominant left handed starting pitchers to come a long in a long while.  His fastball was touching 98mph and his off speed stuff was almost unhitable after seeing that cheese.

The offensive performance was more of the early season same for these Mariners.  Abraham Almonte got on base a few times.  Brad Miller drove the ball hard when he wasn’t striking out (2 for 5 with 3 K’s last night.).  Robinson Cano continued to stay hot going 2 for 4 and Justin Smoak and Corey Hart provided some middle of the order power, both homering in the 9th inning.  Dustin Ackley couldn’t keep his hot streak alive as he was 0 for 4, but he has never looked more like the 2nd overall pick that he was then now.

This off season I have to admit I was a little obsessed with the Seattle Mariners.  I could not get enough news about the health of Taijuan Walker and the short stop battle between Brad Miller and Nick Franklin.  I was also targeting Hisashi Iwakuma in my Fantasy Baseball drafts because I would be getting a nice injury discount.  Walker seemed to be passing every hurdle without complaint as he rehabbed his sore shoulder and Brad Miller outmashed Nick Franklin in Spring Training to nail down the coveted short stop spot for the Mariners.

A Team Of Ifs

The Starting Rotation:  If each member of the starting rotation stays healthy and pitches up to their ceiling as players then the Mariners will have one of the best, if not the best rotation in the American League.  Felix Hernandez is often over looked when talking about aces because people think too much about the win as a stat.  Hernandez still has the best swing and miss stuff in the league (20 change-ups the other night and 17 swing and misses) even though his fast ball isn’t as fast as it once was.  Hernadez’s control and movement make him an uncomfortable at bat for anyone in the league.  Erasmo Ramirez was supposed to explode on the scene last year, but he struggled in his first season in the bigs.  There was nothing wrong with his stuff, it was just his confidence and ability to pin point his pitches.  This spring The Eraser was stellar in Spring Training and won a safe spot at the top of the Mariners rotation.  His first outing of the season was a masterpiece that only had one blemish, a sinker that was deposited over the center field wall by Raul Ibanez.  James Paxton, who is currently the number three starter, is a tall flame throwing lefty that is the perfect pitcher to slot after any of the Mariner right handers.  The angle of his fast ball coupled with velocity makes Paxton a potential strike out machine.  Hisashi Iwakuma is 23-11 so far as a Mariner and sported an impressive 4.40 K/BB rate.  I’m not sure why people sleep on Iwakuma as a fantasy baseball asset, but it really doesn’t matter to me because I just pick him where I can and include him in trades where I didn’t get him.  The ultimate final piece to this rotation will be Taijuan Walker.  Walker is a big time talent that has been season in the minors since 2010.  The Mariners gave him a cup of coffee in the majors last season and Walker teased his potential as he had a 7.2 K per 9 rate and a 3.60 ERA.  Walker was a better prospect than the highly regarded Sonny gray of the Oakland A’s and should be back in the rotation by early May, yet he was drafted at the very end of Fantasy drafts or not at all in some cases.  I drafted him everywhere I could and especially targeted him in leagues where I had a DL spot or two at my disposal.  While Walker and Iwakuma are on the mend I wouldn’t be surprised if Chris Young put up decent numbers for the Mariners as their 5th starter.  It was supposed to be Randy Wolf in that spot, but Wolf was offended when the Mariners asked him to sign a non guarantee to his contract.  So the Mariners turned to the often injured Chris Young who had lost out on a spot in the starting rotation for the Washington Nationals.

Catcher:  If Mike Zunino can develop in the bigs instead of getting more seasoning in the minor leagues.  The Mariners were widely panned for bringing up Zunino last season before he was ready for the challenge of catching in the major leagues.  Zunino struggled and the Mariners struggled to support their young prospect.  This season the Mariners added the well traveled John Buck to support Zunino and hopefully won’t put too much pressure on the young catcher to perform offensively.  Zunino projected as a plus bat behind the plate and I feel like his time will come, but asking for him to be a fantasy asset this season would be a lot.

1st Base:  If Justin Smoak can finally fulfill just a portion of the potential the Mariners saw in him when they traded Cliff Lee for him.  Smoak is off to a fantastic start this season.  He has already slugged 2 homers and driven seven runs batting in the four hole protecting Robinson Cano.  This looks like the Justin Smoak the Rangers were waiting on and the Mariners were hoping for.  If he can bat over .270 with the threat of power from both sides of the late it won’t be so easy for teams to pitch around Cano.  If Smoak falters the the Mariners have Logan Morrison and Corey Hart who can man first base, but I don’t think that will be necessary this year.

2nd Base: Robinson Cano took the big money from the Mariners and most people said he chose the money over winning when he did.  I am a Yankee fan and I thought Cano saw a genuine opportunity to be the face of a franchise on the upswing.  While there are many ifs when talking about the Mariners, Robinson Cano is not one of them.  Cano is the best second baseman in major league baseball and looks like he wants to be the unquestioned leader of the Mariners.  Good for him and the Mariners.

3rd Base:  Kyle Seager is one of my favorite young players in the league.  He can hit for power with a decent batting eye and will steal the occasional base all while fielding his position better than league average.  I thought Seager was going to benefit from hitting directly in front of Robinson Cano this season, but he has started the season in the 6 hole and should have plenty of chances to drive in Robinson Cano.  I do think his fantasy value takes a hit in that spot, but I’m not panicking.

Short Stop:  Brad Miller was the darling of the Fantasy Baseball world in the off season.  With short stop being such a shallow position you can forgive fantasy die-hards for not holding back on their enthusiasm.  Miller first had to beat out Nick Franklin for the position and did so convincingly.  Miller has not slowed down since Spring Training and has already smacked two home-runs and is sporting an over .1100 OPS.  Miller is the real deal folks.  he will hit for power and score plenty of runs hitting in front of Cano, but you will have to live with some high strikeout totals.  he has a big swing and doesn’t like to cut it down with two strikes.

Outfield:  Abraham Almonte is a switch hitting Center Fielder that Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon seems to have fallen in love with.  Almonte doesn’t offer anything in terms of power, but his speed and position on top of the Mariners order make him interesting in AL only formats.  If Almonte can’t hit his weight they always have big Michael Saunders who could take over.  Saunders operates as the fourth outfielder for now and is featuring in Right Field while Corey Hart continues to get healthy.  Saunders is a legit 20/20 guy if he gets a full opportunity, but he has never been able to hit for a high enough average to warrant it.  The aforementioned Corey Hart is a big piece of the Mariners puzzle.  He is a legitimate power right handed bat when he is healthy.  The only bad thing is he hasn’t been healthy in a while.  Hart was a solid fantasy performer in his Brewer days before a lost season last year.  A lot of people drafted him and stashed him last season only to get burned.  Those same Fantasy players may have avoided him this season because of it.  If Hart can stay healthy he will be an asset to the Mariners and fantasy owners with his power.  The last piece of the outfield puzzle is Dustin Ackley.  Ackley is a former second overall pick that was supposed to be the Mariners second baseman for the next 15 years.  Instead he struggled mightily last season, both in the field and at bat, so the Mariners decided to make him an outfielder.  First they tried him in Center Field which was a mistake, and now he has been give the left field job without any competition.  Ackley projects as a hitter that should hit for a high average and also keep a high OB%.  The only problem is he doesn’t have much power for the position.  I think the Mariners figure they could come out ahead in the power department in the middle infield and eventually at the catcher position so his lack of power won’t hurt their overall team.

Closer:  If Fernando Rodney can keep the closer’s role for the entire season he should ave over 40 games with this pitching rotation.  If he falters then Danny Farquhar will be waiver wire gold.  Keep an eye on Rodney and Farquhar if you’re in need of Saves.

As you can tell I have really been concentrating on the Mariners for selfish Fantasy purposes, but nonetheless you should start looking at them as well.  

Fantasy Spin:

Zunino should only be owned in AL only leagues for now.

Smoak should be rostered in 14 team leagues and larger.  I wouldn’t kill my Faab budget on him though.

Seager is some one you may have to play match ups with with his low spot in the batting order.

Miller will be a top ten short stop, but don’t go crazy trying to trade for him.

Ackley is going to be an asset in leagues with Batting Average especially because of his position eligibility. (2B,CF,LF)

Hart is always an injury risk, but makes for a nice Utility player when healthy.

Walker should be owned in every league you are in (except 8 team leagues, but what’s fun about 8 team leagues?)

Erasmo and Paxton are key targets for the waiver wire in 12 team leagues and larger.  In ten team leagues it may be tough to give up on who you drafted so early.

Feel free to comment and let me know which, if any Mariners, you targeted in your fantasy baseball drafts.

 

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Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft

Swag-Diamond Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft Recap and Analysis

7- Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B $41    Encarnacion was one of my main targets in this auction.  Starting only 3  Outfielders and adding a Corner-Infielder spot makes Encarnacion a nice option instead of blowing your entire budget on Mike Trout ($57) or Andrew McCutchen (who went to @naapsterman for only $45).  I was in on McCutchen, but once it went to 45 I backed off.  Encarnacion ended up going for the same as Chris Davis and $5 dollars cheaper than Paul Goldschmidt.

15- Troy Tulowitzki, Col SS $31  Obviously I am gambling on health with Tulowitzki, but who aren’t you gambling with health when it comes to the top Short Stops.  Hanley Ramirez ($38) isn’t exactly Super Man and Jose Reyes (only $19 to Ryan Forbes who had a great auction) is, well Jose Reyes.  I had Tulow as a $30 player so one extra wasn’t a huge deal.

45 Jose Bautista, Tor OF $24  Bautista was my biggest target in this auction.  In 5 x 5 with OB% instead of BA% he can be huge.  I was hoping to get him for $22 and went to $24 which was one below my $25 dollar rating.

54 Justin Upton, Atl OF $7 All I can say is everyone fell asleep on this one.  I only threw out a $7 bid because there didn’t look to be to much action and I didn’t exactly want him, but I wouldn’t mind making someone else pay for him.  By getting him for only $7 dollars it opened me up to spend a little more at other spots.

57 Justin Verlander, Det SP $21 Verlander was my #4 Starting Pitcher before the injuries to Darvish and Kershaw and now he is a much tighter 3B.  His price was scoffed at a bit, but then Strasburg went for $33 and Scherzer, Wainwright and Sale all went for $26, Verlander’s price didn’t look all that bad.

89 Mike Moustakas, KC 3B $9 Oh boy did I get caught with my hand in the cookie jar on this one.  I was hoping some of my fellow owners would be bidding him up on the account of his strong spring and of course when I thought someone would go to $10 they stuck me with him for $9.  Moustakas was a $5 player in my ratings and I almost doubled that up.

90 Wilin Rosario, Col C $19 Rosario is a target of mine everywhere.  I overpaid for him here, but when I looked at the Catchers that were available after he was put up, there was no one that could come close to what he brings.  He ended up costing the same as Joe Mauer and was 6 and 5 dollars less than Santana and Posey, respectively.

94 Jered Weaver, LAA SP $12 Another one where I got caught bidding up.  I was hoping some people would be desperate for starting pitching and paying for past performance, but $12 was not a bad price for Weaver.  FantasyPros actually has him rated for $12 and I have him as a $10 SP in Mixed Leagues so I’m not too upset.

104 J.J. Hardy, Bal SS $9 I needed a middle infielder with some pop and Hardy was the guy.  His BA% doesn’t matter here and his counting numbers are nice for the MI spot.  I still over paid (by at least 3-4 dollars) in a mixed league setting, but I didn’t like what was left on the board.

126 Alex Gordon, KC OF $12 Huge OB% advantage and I get him at a discount?!  I don’t know why people are sleeping on Gordon this year, but I’m not concerned as I picked him up everywhere.  I got a $8 discount according to FantasyPros and he was $8 cheaper than Hunter Pence who is a very similar player.

143 Trevor Rosenthal, StL RP $16 We need to start two relief pitchers and Rosenthal was the last of my upper-tier closers left.  I spent a little more than I wanted (I have him at $12) but I had extra money to spend.

146 R.A. Dickey, Tor SP $6 R.A. could be one of those injury bounce back players, but I only wanted him at the right price with his high WHIP so $6 was perfect.

147 Pablo Sandoval, SF 3B $8 Moustakas was not going to be the thirdbaseman I was going to bank on and Sandoval was a nice back-up/starter plan for around the same price.  I wanted to only spend $7 on him, but $8 wasn’t out of the question.

165 Andrew Cashner, SD SP $8 Cashner was a big target for me. (no pun intended with his height)  With Wins not being a category Cashner is equal to a lot of the bigger name pitchers available and he can always work on getting his K-rate up.

166 Sergio Romo, SF RP $6 Not bad for my 2nd RP.  I had Romo as an $8 closer and again I get some value.  He’s in my top ten so there’s that as well.

183 Christian Yelich, Mia OF $3 Yelich is a player who i hope gets off to a fast start.  He’s a bit of a post-hype sleeper because he was last year’s version of George Springer.  A guy with power and speed who could be a huge fantasy player in the future. I’m not confident that future is now, but if he starts fast the $3 investment could pay dividends in a trade.

196 Danny Salazar, Cle SP $8 Salazar was a must because I needed to add K’s after getting Weaver and Cashner.  Salazar has top of the rotation strike-out stuff, but I think people are over-paying in redraft leagues.  $8 is not bad and is actually below where i had him rated.

200 Austin Jackson, Det OF $4 Huge discount alert.  Some people were running out of money and I picked up a steal in Jackson at $4.  FantasyPros has him rated at $16 and I have him just below that at $15.  So excited about this buy.

203 Clay Buchholz, Bos SP $3 With a DL spot available he is definitely worth the gamble.  When healthy he is top of the rotation stuff and when he’s hurt he’s on the DL.  I recently heard Eno Sarris say the very same thing and it’s always good to have someone reassure you. Cueto went for $6 and he’s the same injury gamble.  Great when healthy and when he’s hurt you DL him.

209 Marco Estrada, Mil SP $3 I really like the Strike out upside and I didn’t want to overpay for him in a room of experts.  $3 was perfect for me as I had him rated as a $6 SP.

213 Brian Dozier, Min 2B $5 Bit of an overpay here, but I needed him because I had missed out out Gyorko to TraderX for $16.  I couldn’t go that high and now Dozier was my position punt.  Not that bad a punt though with his ability to go 20/15.

222 Adam Eaton, CWS OF $3 This late in the auction strategy came to the forefront.  I knew some of my other friends in the league wanted Eaton and their max bid left was $3, so I threw out an opening bid of $3 dollars on an outfielder that people want and they were stuck letting him go to me.  If he doesn’t end up in my starters maybe I can package him for a new 2B option.

256 Taijuan Walker*, Sea SP $2 I had $2 left and I had a DL spot to use so Taijuan Walker was a nice lottery ticket to get this late.  I would much rather have him sitting on my DL then spend $2 on Danny Haren or any other former decent fantasy pitcher.

The Worst Over Pays

Ben Zobrist for $25 – that was just crazy because his number have been declining for the last few years and you can’t pay a premium just on flexibility.

Yu Darvish for $36 – It’s never a good strategy to over pay for a stud Starting Pitcher and this case was no different.  His neck issues aside this was at least $8 too much for me.

Billy Hamilton for $21 – I know the hype train is in full effect, but this is still a ONE-Category guy that should not be going in the same price range as Matt Holiday or Alex Rios.

Bryce Harper and Steven Strasburg for a combine $72 – I don’t mean to pick on my good buddy Ricky Sanders here, but these were two overpays for me.  Sometimes you get caught up in the auction with your eyes focused on your targets and you blow your budget because of it.   It caught up to him at the end of the draft as his depth took a hit.

The Best Buys

Nolan Arenado for $1 – One dollar price tag was a little soul crushing for me as I paid a combined $17 for Panda and Moustakas.  I really like Arenado this year and I would have been a lot happier if I went Panda and Arenado and saved the Moustakas money to get Gyorko at 2B.

Austin Jackson for $4 – This guy score a ton of runs and he will steal bases.  His OB% is not ideal for an OB% league, but he is still worth at least 4x the cost.  I won’t even count the Upton buy because there was a lot of chatter in the message box when that was going on.  Distracted everyone.

Hisashi Iwakuma for $8 – Renee Miller picked up a nice injury steal here by getting the excellent Iwakuma for below market value.  I have Iwakuma as a $15 pitcher and would have loved to get him, but Renee made a great buy.

Aroldis Chapman for $5 – This was a really smart buy considering he will still pitch for at least 17 weeks of the season.  He cost the same as Booby Parnell who could lose his job the first month of the season.

 

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FSWA Fantasy Baseball Draft

This year I made the choice to join the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and I couldn’t be happier.  Not only do I get to belong to a great group that supports the industry’s best and brightest, but I get to participate in leagues with fellow writers.

This season I was asked to join the latest FSWA Fantasy Baseball Draft (The Nado DiFino Award) and I thought that was a great chance to see where my rankings stacked up before my main money leagues drafted over the next two weekends.

For Reference FSWA Leagues Start-

CC,1B,2B,3B,SS,MI,CI,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF,UT,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P

and Scoring is

Runs,RBIs,SBs,OB%,Slugging%     –     Ks,ERA,WHIP,QS,Saves

When I found out I had the fourth pick in the draft I was praying that Andrew McCutchen would fall to me becuase he fills up all five offensive categories and plays a position that will end up being depleted with 12 teams having to start 5 Out Fielders.  Well in a draft full of fantasy writers that didn’t happen.  Paul Goldschmidt was there for me to take him, but in a league where you start 9 Pitchers every week I couldn’t pass up on the clear number one, tier to himself, Clayton Kershaw.  That was the first of many slightly controversial picks I made in this draft.

Clayton Kershaw

COACH ESSER DENNIS
4 Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP  Over Goldschmidt was tough, but I’m happy
21 Jose Bautista, Tor OF  Needed a high upside Outfielder and Bautista can top four categories if healthy
28 Justin Verlander, Det SP  This was a personal preference. I have him rated 3rd-SP most don’t
45 Joe Mauer, Min C  2-Catcher League Mauer is huge in OB% and Runs
52 Matt Kemp, LAD OF  -Big gamble on health here. Wouldn’t have got him in the next round
69 Matt Carpenter, StL 2B  -Value pick here as he is plus in Runs,OB% and decent in Slugging%
76 Josh Donaldson, Oak 3B  -Another value pick, Wanted to wait and go with a sleeper later, but not bad.
93 Trevor Rosenthal, StL RP  -The last of the upper tier Closers and now with Chapman hurt its good value
100 Jose Abreu, CWS 1B  -needed some upside power at 1B and love to gamble on Abreu
117 Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea SP  -Iwakuma has a lot of upside as long as that finger is ready soon
124 Danny Salazar, Cle SP  -Salazar is going to break out this year and reached a little here
141 Austin Jackson, Det OF  -Jackson was always a target and his ESPN ADP kept him off screen
148 Jason Castro, Hou C  -Castro was the last offensive Catcher that could be plus in Slugging%
165 Jason Grilli, Pit RP  -Steady closer who has a decent WHIP as well
172 Brad Miller, Sea SS  -big time target for me and it was tough to lay off Castro and Simmons as they fell
189 Khris Davis, Mil OF  -Fourth Outfielder with power upside-a bit of a gamble
196 Lance Lynn, StL SP  -Lynn is nice starter to have in this format with his K totals
213 Matt Garza, Mil SP  -Auto picked Garza when Adam Eaton was in my que but had been sniped-still stings
220 Nate Jones, CWS RP  -The last decent upside closer left.
237 Taijuan Walker, Sea SP  – Walker here was a round early based on ADP, but the shoulder sounds good
244 David Freese, LAA 3B  – Batting fourth against Lefties and if healthy not a bad Corner Infielder
261 Oswaldo Arcia, Min OF  – One of my favorite late round power sources
268 Michael Brantley, Cle OF  -Solid outfielder with room for improvement-pure depth
285 Neil Walker, Pit 2B  – Could be a nice value pick for MI depth-if not, to the wire I go
292 Devin Mesoraco, Cin C -Vargas knee issues had me looking for a 3rd Catcher when normally I wouldn’t
309 Todd Frazier, Cin 3B  – Too much potential this late in the draft.  RBIs in a pinch
316 Erik Johnson, CWS SP  – Late round sleeper or bust.  I like what I saw last year and worth a gamble
333 Junior Lake, ChC OF  – Needed Steals and he could get 20 this year while putting up decent Slugging%

As you can tell my team lacks stolen bases and I will have to look to make a trade early on or raid the waiver wire for this year’s Nate McLouth.  Let me know what you think and who you are targeting in your fantasy baseball drafts.

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Fantasy Baseball – Undervalued

Through the first few of my actual money drafts of 2014 the same players keep sliding in drafts.  Many of these undervalued players have already become roster magnets for me and I really can’t complain based on past performance or the 2014 projections I have on these players.  So without further adieu these are some players you should target when they start to fall.

Wilin Rosario-Catcher-Colorado Rockies

Wilin Rosario Colorado Rockies

Rosario is one of the only catchers in the league that has 30 homer potential, yet he continues to slide in drafts.  In leagues that only start one catcher and are smaller than 14 teams i don’t tend to worry too much about drafting the position unless there becomes a clear “value win” or I feel the catcher run is in full swing.  It’s a lot like dealing with a one quarterback league that doesn’t weigh touch down passes as six points in fantasy football.  After the first few catchers it’s pretty much fantasy league average through catcher 14 in my rankings.  Rosario is the only one in my high-mid catcher rankings that I tend to target because of the home run potential.  If you see your team is slipping in that category in Roto-style or if Home Runs count as 5 points in your points league then don’t miss out on this guy.  You can find his current ADP at Fantasy Pros Here.

Justin Verlander-Starting Pitcher-Detroit Tigers

Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander is a stud.  Instead of remembering his up and down season from last year try and remember how dominant he was in the playoffs. (23 Innings – 1 Run – 31 Strikeouts)  Those are the numbers that get you excited about owning Justin Verlander and those are the numbers that are going to make him a draft steal this year.  He is regularly going behind last year’s rookie phenom Jose Fernandez in drafts and that’s just not right.  I have Verlander ranked right in my top 5 and have no fears at all about his perceived regression last year.  Don’t let him last too long in your drafts because you will be sorry.  Go to Fantasy Pros here for his current ADP across all sites.

Kyle Seager-Third Base-Seattle Mariners

Kyle Seager Under Valued

Last year it was tough to own any Mariners besides King Felix (Felix Hernandez) and be happy about it, but Kyle Seager quietly had a very good year and he did it with multiple position eligibility in some formats.  This year people seem to have forgotten that Seager showed pop (22 homers) and even some decent wheels (9 stolen bases).  Seager has even more value in leagues that start a corner infielder, but in leagues that start a traditional lineup he can be the ideal first player on your bench or utility player.  Instead of going in the low to mid 70s he is regularly available in the ealry 100s in drafts and I seem to be picking him off constantly.  Go here to see his current ADP across all sites.

Hunter Pence-Out Fielder-San Francisco Giants

Hunter Pence Fantasy BaseballAll Hunter Pence did last year was put up solid numbers in almost every category (.283-27 HRs-99RBIs-22SBs) and yet during drafts this year he continues to be over looked constantly.  I know people always like their new shiny toys, but Billy Hamilton over Hunter Pence has happened far too often.  I know his swing is ugly, but you don’t actually have to watch every at bat of your second fantasy outfielder.  Seriously I can’t think of any reason he should slide this low (current ADP) unless it’s purely on aesthetics or latent antisemitism.

 

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Cardinal Rules – Injury Report

You might think this post is about trying to make sure you have as many St. Louis Cardinals on your fantasy baseball roster as possible, but it’s not. (That is a good way to win though.)

There are a few cardinal rules you need to abide by before heading to your draft or auction in fantasy baseball.  First make sure you know the scoring system of the league you are about to try and win.  Unless winning isn’t your thing, then just show up and draft based on any old ranking system.  At least you will really like your team with that method, even if it ends up in second to last.

Kris Medlen Injured

My second cardinal rule is to make sure you have up to date injury information.  Do not go to the draft and assume Thursday’s injury report will be good for Sunday’s draft.  A lot of things can happen in two days time.  For example, the Atlanta Braves starting pitching rotation was decimated in a 48 hour window with elbow injuries to Kris Medlin and Brandon Beachy.  Imagine how bad your rotation would look right after the draft if you had no idea they both had appointments with Dr. James Andrews.

The reason I’m posting this today is because I got bit by the lack of information bug this weekend.  I took over a keeper league team that was built primarily around it’s position players and knew I needed to concentrate on starting pitching to make a dent in this particular points league.  I had a very busy weekend planned and knew i wasn’t going to be able to do as much research on Saturday or Sunday morning as I would have liked, but I felt fairly confident.

Patrick Corbin InjuredI had seen a blip of a story on Patrick Corbin leaving his Spring Training start because of pain in his elbow.  The particular post I saw only mentioned forearm tightness that seemed to be effecting his slider and that it was something to monitor, but didn’t seem like a huge issue.  If it had been a draft during the week I would have been looking up every Diamond Backs beat writer’s Twitter timeline and trying to see if this meant he should be dropped down my rankings.  Unfortunately the draft was on Sunday and the injury was on Saturday while I was out all day with my wife and kids.  Only so much research can be done on your phone while your wife reads the menu.

Long story short I had an extra third round pick from a predraft trade and I used that on Corbin.  Obviously in retrospect it was a huge mistake, but that mistake was compounded by me not drafting enough healthy pitching that didn’t have question marks around it.  Sonny Gray as my ace doesn’t feel as comfortable without Corbin there as my second starter.  Clay Buchholz as my third starter was worth a gamble if Corbin was healthy, but with Corbin out Buchholz makes my rotation very vulnerable.

Long story short I wrote this post as friendly reminder/warning that injuries do happen while your cooking steak on a stone and consuming mass quantities of sangria.  Wake up just a little early or go to bed just a bit later and pour over the day’s injuries.  Don’t take one story or article as the undisputed truth on the severity of an injury.

 

 

 

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