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Week 1 DraftKings DFS Preview Podcast

Week 1 DraftKings DFS Preview Podcast


Week one of the NFL season came at a very busy time in the life of the Esser family, so I apologize whole-heartedly for the late and short episode.  It is always great to talk to the amazing Renee Miller and I look forward to having our regular show back each and every week for the rest of the season.  Please take a quick listen so we can tell you who we are play, fading and sneaking into our week 1 millionaire maker line ups.

For more on my podcast partner, Renee Miller follow her @reneemiller01 on Twitter and check out a few of her latest articles:
Between the Lines: http://es.pn/1VRWl3o
Flex Plays: http://es.pn/1Q3M2FB
DK Plays: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/09/11/tony-romo-headlines-our-week-1-draftkings-plays/
Contrarian Plays for FD: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/56169/438/nfl-dfs-contrarian-plays-fd

 

Week 1 NFL DFS Stacks for DraftKings

Week 1 NFL DFS Stacks for DraftKingsPile of Pancakes

Just a few short years ago the only stacks I was worried about on a Sunday morning was a huge pile of pancakes covered in butter and syrup.  I’m not kidding.  Now all week long I try and focus on what stacks may be the most profitable on Sundays in the biggest and best GPP tournaments Daily Fantasy Sports has to offer.  If you look back at some of the winners in last season’s millionaire makers and even the teams that had big time sweats there were variations of stacking that helped them lap the field.  Whether it was everyone’s favorite Boston sweat with a home town Patriots fan taking the entire offense to win himself a million bucks or it was the off the radar Joe “100 Million Dollar Man” Flacco and his Ravens receivers winning a million dollars.  Every week I’ll talk about my favorite stacks and even some offenses I wish I could stack, but ultimately can’t.

Dallas Cowboys Stack –

Tony Romo 7300 –  Romo is pretty mid-priced when it comes to week one QBs and it;’s almost too good to be true with the way he has played against the Giants the last few years.  The Giants are in even worse shape now then they were the last few years as they have a very suspect safety tandem to go along with a JPP-less pass rush.  The only thing holding me back from using Tony Romo more (besides my Giants fandom) is the fact that the Giants might be equally as bad against the run as they may start Markus Kuhn at DT and an undrafted FA rookie at MLB with Jon Beason out.

Dez Bryant 8700 – Dez Bryant gets up for games against the NFC East.  He demands the ball and he makes big plays.  He also is 500 cheaper than Odell Beckham Jr. on the Giants.  Dez is one of the players I am getting in my lineups even when I’m not stacking Cowboys.

Jason Witten 4000 – Witten kills the Giants.  The Giants usually play some form of cover 2 to help over the top with Dez Bryant and it leaves their linebackers exposed to the wiley veteran.  With Rob Gronkowski not available because he played on Thursday Witten gets a bump for me as far as playability and if you’re stacking Cowboys he can be a very good edition.

Terrance Williams 4000 vs. Cole Beasley 3400 – I have seen a lot of touting of Beasley as a solid option because of the Giants struggles at the slot corner position and with their safeties and linebackers not at their best.  I think he could have been a real key if the Giants were going to keep pace with the Cowboys or lead the Cowboys on Sunday, but I think the game may be more about the Cowboys controlling the Giants and the Giants struggling a bit with no Victor Cruz and a beat up offensive line.  Because of that i would rather go with Williams as an option make some big downfield plays off of play-action with inexperienced or over-aggressive safeties back there.

Arizona Cardinals Stack –

Carson Palmer 6500 – Palmer is coming back from major knee surgery, but has looked great this preseason.  He was borderline dominant early last year and has a ton of passing weapons at his disposal in Arizona.  This week he gets a very bad New Orleans Saints defense in a game where there may be some big time scoring as Drew Brees and company try to keep pace.

John Brown 4500 – Brown burst on the scene last season before struggling with out Carson Palmer in the lineup.  Brown has elite speed and actually worked with Carson Palmer all summer to get their timing down.  That bodes well as both a fantasy sleeper and as low priced/high upside play week one against a bad Saints secondary.

Larry Fitzgerald 5500 – Honestly I love his pricing this week and I love that he’ll be under owned because most think he’s almost done.  Last season Fitz excelled when Palmer was at the helm and he is a nice complement play as some people may stack Palmer and Brown and then go elsewhere to fill the rest of their squad.

Michael Floyd 5800 – Floyd is a bit over priced with the questions surrounding his injury.  If Floyd was completely healthy I would like him because of his big play ability, but in week one his injury status makes Fitz and Brown more appealing targets.

Philadelphia Eagles Stack

Sam Bradford 6900 – Bradford’s pricing is just about right if you consider the risk versus the reward with his injury history and newness to the offense.  The over under on the game is so high (54) that even if the Falcons defense did look improved, they don’t, you would target this game.  I’m tempted to instead cherry pick this game instead of stack because of the fact that it will be used a bunch.

Jordan Matthews 7200 – Matthews is going to be the go-to-guy this year fir the Eagles in the passing game.  With Matthews occupying the slot it means he will stay away from the Falcons best cover corner, Desmond Trufant.  I love Matthews this week and may be playing him even more over on FanDuel.

Nelson Agholor 5700 – I expect the rookie to be involved early and often, but his match up against Trufant actually means I may be more apt to avoid putting him in my stacks.

Brent Celek 2500 – With Zach Ertz a game time decision Brent Celek could become a nice option as a stackable punt play.  With the high over/under and increase in snaps and possible usage Celek becomes very intriguing. Plus he’ll be owned at less than 1%, which is nice.

Sneaky Stack***

Detroit Lions Stack –

Matthew Stafford 7000 – Stafford is everyone’s favorite whipping boy because of his inconsistency and his maddening mechanics, but he has put up huge games in the past.  If the Lions were opening at home I would expect the Lions stack to get a lot of looks, but because they are on the road they are going to be under used.  The pluses for Stafford are the return of a healthy Calvin Johnson, continued presence of Golden Tate and the additions of last year’s first round pick Eric Ebron and this year’s draft pick in Ameer Abdullah.

Ameer Abdullah 4000 – A running back in your stack?  Yep, Abdullah is going to be featured in the passing game and will get quite a few touches against a less than impressive defense.  Could make the Chargers look silly if he badly outplays Melvin Gordon.

Calvin Johnson 8500 – Let’s make this short…..he’s fricking Megatron!  No bigger ceiling on a WR than what Johnson has the potential to do on the field.

Golden Tate 6300 – Tate is 800 cheaper than Keenan Allen who’s on the other side of the ball this week.  The price is really inviting for a secondary option with big play ability.

Eric Ebron 2900 – Ebron will forever be one of the guys drafted ahead of Odell Beckham Jr., but he can do something to soften that image with a big sophomore season.   The reports have been pretty good on Ebron this off season and the release of Joseph Fauria has to be a pretty good sign that he’s going to get some snaps this year.  The reson I really like him is his ability to stretch the field in the seam and that could mean he makes a few big plays at a nice low price to make his DFS owners happy.

Who I’m Not Stacking and Why:

Miami Dolphins – I like Ryan Tannehill this week, but I have no clue who is going to get snaps and usage besides Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry int he Dolphins offense.  I want some clarity instead of throwing darts this week with as many good options as there are.

Green Bay Packers – Aaron Rodgers is never a bad option, but with Jordy Nelson out for the year and Randall Cobb nursing an AC Joint Sprain it makes playing a stack with the Packers difficult.  Especially with a bunch of the field owning the cheap Davante Adams.

Indianapolis Colts – I can actually see the headline now.  Ultimate Contrarian Play wins 2 MIL.  I’m not buying it, but I’m sure there will be lineups stacking Colts against the Bills knowing that people are shying away from the very tough Bills defense.

2015 NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings

2015 NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings

Holy cow!!!  Week one of the NFL season is finally here!  Usually it seems like the clock moves slower as the Summer wears on and you just want your favorite players not to get hurt, but this year the Summer flew by for me.  Must have been all the fun I had with the girls the last Summer before school started for them.  Now they had their first day of school today and the first game of the NFL season is a day away with Tom Brady officially not suspended.  Woooohoooo!

Week one has some tasty fantasy match ups right out of the gates.  With Eddie Lacy and Aaron Rodgers facing the Bears defense, the Giants and the Cowboys locked and loaded for some fireworks and the Philadelphia Eagles get to take on the Atlanta Falcons in what could be a fantasy points bonanza, fantasy football players could see their guys fly out of the gates.  Baltimore facing Gary Kubiak and the Denver Broncos is very interesting to me as well.  Peyton lit up Baltimore a few years back on a Thursday Night opener in Denver, but I’m not sure Peyton Manning is still the same player.  We shall see.

Some teams that don’t have favorable match ups are the Indianapolis Colts as they go into Buffalo, the New Orleans Saints opening on the road in Arizona, and Seattle going into St. Louis.  Some players I really like could struggle on opening day and who knows, you may get a bargain as a desperately impatient owner looks to sell.

 

2015 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

2015 Fantasy Football PPR Rankings

2015 Fantasy Football PPR Rankings

I know it feels lie I just posted my final standard rankings a few minutes ago….oh wait I did!  Well any-who, I magically got my final 2015 Fantasy Football PPR Rankings done just a few minutes later.  Obviously you will see some differences from the standard rankings, but I think my projections in years past used to have a more pronounced difference when it came to standard scoring versus PPR scoring.  You’ll see guys like Julian Edelman and Jarvis Landry a bit higher here and definitely see Kendall Wright jump some better Standard scoring players.  Running backs like Danny Woodhead, CJ Spiller, and Shane Vereen get a bump while LaGarrette Blount and Andre Williams slide.  I hope these rankings will help you for your last minute drafts.  Good luck!

 

2015 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

2015 Fantasy Football Standard Scoring Rankings

2015 Fantasy Football Standard Scoring Rankings

CJ Anderson

The final 2015 Fantasy Football Standard Scoring Rankings are fresh off the presses.  With clarity in some running back competitions and injury situations there was quite a bit of movement from just a few weeks ago.  The news that Arian Foster will be only miss four to five weeks was huge for his ranking and while he moved up considerably, one of my favorite rookie running backs, David Cobb, was forced to IR-DTR with a calf injury and tumbled down the rankings.  His injury actually caused another shake up as Terrance West was traded to the Titans and Duke Johnson’s outlook got a bit clearer with the Browns.  Brandon LaFell’s PUP designation caused a ripple effect in the Wide Receiver rankings and James Jones resigning with the Packers caused a stir.  All in all I think these of some of my best rankings yet and hope they help you with your last minute drafts.

 

2015 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

Fantasy Football Proxy Draft

This past weekend I had the pleasure of joining some of the best minds in Fantasy Football at the Flex Cup Drafts at Monmouth Park Race Track here in New Jersey.  In all honesty, I was just there for the free beer and to bet on the horse races, but you never know what can happen at live drafts, so I made sure I didn’t pre-game too early in case one of the experts needed some help.  I got there a little early and placed some pick 5 bets and decided to walk around the grounds and check out the horses.  It was a beautiful day at the Jersey Shore and before long one of my favorite friends in the industry, Pat Thorman of PFF, walked through the gates and the conversation started flying.

RotoeXperts along with FntasySportsNetwork were sponsoring the event and SiriusXMFantasy was doing live shows all day long from the event.  As I walked in Nando Di Fino and Tony Cincotta were on air talking about the upcoming drafts and the room was already filled with Fantasy Analysts ready to talk about their favorite targets and pick the brains of the DFS players, like Tommy G and Mike Leone, for advice.  There were even some celebrities walking around like Lisa Ann, Chris Doleman, and Wayne Chrebet.

One thing you’ll notice if you decide to get into the fantasy sports industry is everyone is so nice.  When you go to events you are surrounded by like minded people who really, REALLY love sports and decided to concentrate on fantasy when their playing days ended.  My friend Joe Pisapia of The Fantasy Black Book and FanDuel was going to be drafting in the 14 team .5 point PPR Flex Cup draft and he immediately asked my thoughts on strategy.  It was fun to banter back and forth about safe versus ceiling and I think he talked himself into his strategy through the conversation.

While Jake Ciely (@AllinKid) was getting the draft ready they realized Brandon Marriane Lee of HerFantasyFootball.com and FanDuel wouldn’t be able to draft because she was going to be on air for SiriusXMFantasy from 3-5 with her sisters Courtney and Ashley.  I walked over to my friends at HerFantasyFootball and Brandon realized right away that I wasn’t actually drafting today (I was just eating and drinking and betting) and asked if I could Proxy Draft for her.  I would do anything for my friends (maybe even give up an hour or two of free beer and food) so I was in the second she asked.  Now came what would normally be a frantic few minutes where she explains how she wants me to draft.  Instead it was the easiest process in the world and I’ll tell you how each of us contributed to it.

Flex Cup Draft

The first thing you have to do when you proxy draft for someone is to put your own ego to the side.  If the person you’re drafting for has a specific plan and or strategy you have to be a good listener and work as if you are literally the conduit through which they draft their team.  The ladies from HerFantasyFootball.com were on point.  Brandon brought a tiered cheat sheet that she wanted to go off of and we had a few minutes to discuss the individuals within each tier.  You see all of us have these tiered draft sheets, but there are certain player we target over the others in the same tier.  I picked her brain for a few minutes and I immediately got a clear picture of how she wanted to draft.

Lucky for me we had already had deep late-night discussions on a million Fantasy Football related topics earlier in August when we went to DC, so I knew her likes before she even asked.  Brandon was picking fourth in a 14 team .5 point PPR and that’s the point where I would normally look at the best wide receiver on the board if it were my draft, but since this was THEIR draft Jamaal Charles was the easy pick based on their sheet.  Charles was the fourth running back taken and it was a very safe pick.  On the way back in the second round I was almost forced into a conundrum as Jordan Matthews and Brandin Cooks both slid toward Brandon’s pick.  The cheat sheet had Cooks above Matthews, but I really really like Matthews more so i was going to be tempted to go rogue already.  Lucky for me Matt Camp went with Matthews right before me and it made Cooks the easy pick.  After that pick it was all about following her tiered sheet and building the best team possible for her.

After looking at the draft I think her team is one of the stronger teams in the league and even has some upside if one of her RB2’s outplays their draft position or if Austin Sefarian Jenkins makes a second year leap at TE.  I had a blast drafting for Brandon and she thanked me a bunch, but she has no idea how much fun I actually have drafting.  Drafting Fantasy Football teams, even for someone else using their rankings, is one of my favorite things to do in the world.  I live for drafting and there’s going to be a point in a few days when the drafts are over and I’ll have to fill that empty void putting together Daily Fantasy Lineups that I’ll go through a short semi-depression.  No more slow draft emails filling my inbox.  No more random who do I draft questions from long lost college and high school friends, and even no more preseason rankings tweaks.

I can feel the depression coming on already.  Lucky for me I have a few more live drafts to get me through and then there’s always Fantasy Basketball to look forward to.  (I know, it’s not the same!)

Here’s a link to Brandon Marriane Lee’s Draft for the Flex Cup 2015.  http://football20.myfantasyleague.com/2015/options?L=23918&O=113&DISPLAY=LEAGUE

Let me know how you think we did?  I know one person who hated/loved the 3rd round pick….@AllinKid

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