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Fantasy Baseball: Jeff Samardzija Trade Reaction

Fantasy Baseball:  Reaction to A’s and Cubs trade

 

Samardzija will now be slinging in Oakland.

Samardzija will now be slinging in Oakland.

The A’s were picked by many to be the team to watch this year in the American League.  They have looked really good in the early going of the 2014 season as they lead the league in runs scored and lead the AL West by 3.5 games over the Angels.  Even with all of that there were some concerns that the A’s may need to address their starting pitching as well as shore up their offense at some point before the trade deadline.   Enter Friday night’s trade between the A’s and the Chicago Cubs.

What the trade actually is:

Let’s look at the A’s side first.  The A’s were getting dangerously close to burning out their bullpen and really needed to look for starting pitching that could get deep into games.  Enter Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija who have been work horses in that department for the Chicago Cubs.   Peter Gammons said it best on Twitter yesterday.

The A’s bullpen has been their strength so far this season even with Jim Johnson failing miserably in the closer’s role earlier this season.  Sean Doolittle was unhittable up until just recently and that may have bee due to his usage.  They all could use a bit of break and the new additions should be able to help.

Jeff Samardzija’s Season Stats: W-L 2-7, 2.83 ERA, 1.204 WHIP, K/9 8.6, BB/9 2.6, FIP 3.06

Jeff Samardzija is exactly what the A’s wanted if they were going to give up a potential future star in Addison Russell.  The A’s get a starting pitcher in their prime who has the ability to miss bats as well as go deep into games.  Samardzija is having his best season statistically in the major leagues.  His walks are down and so are his home runs allowed.  Samardzija’s win loss record of course can be thrown out the window when speaking about him.  They also get control of a top of the rotation starting pitcher in their prime for two years.  They can ride him to a title this year and flip him next year for picks, or they can let him be their workhorse for the next two seasons and then make him a qualifying offer and let him walk while getting back a compensation pick.  

Jason Hammel’s Season Stats: W-L 8-5, 2.98 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, K/9 8.6, BB/9 1.9, FIP 3.16

Jason Hammel was going to be traded one way or another this season and the A’s did the right thing in getting him as a true rental for the rest of 2014.  Hammel is also having his best statistical season and has been incredibly efficient at getting deep into games.  It was only a year ago that Hammel was the opening day starter for the Baltimore Orioles so you know he has talent.  The big thing this year is he’s gotten away from a terrible ballpark for pitchers in Baltimore and limited his walks in Chicago.  His fast ball command has been spot on all season and he shouldn’t take too much of a knock moving to the American League.  I think his ERA will rise a bit, but as long as he keeps his walks down he should have no problem staying fantasy relevant.  

What the Chicago Cubs Get:

Addison Russell is looked at by many as a future star in major league baseball.  He has power and speed and can hit for average while fielding the all important position of short stop at an elite level.  Russell was looked at as a fast riser this year after having an excellent season at High A last year, but suffered a tear to his hamstring entering the season.  He just recently got back and immediately showed that his hamstring is healthy by stealing 3 bases in the first ten games back.  Some may look at this deal and ask why the Cubs dealt for another top short stop prospect after they already have Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara stashed away in the minor leagues.  The reason is because Russell is an elite asset that the Cubs coveted.  Not only do the Cubs covet him, but almost every organization in baseball wanted him.  The Cubs will find a way to get all of these young players to the major leagues and if not they will spin them off for talent.  Link to Cubs’ Best Prospects Page Here.

Dan Straily struggled this year at the major league level after the A’s had penciled him in to be their 3rd or 4th starter to open the season.  He was giving up way too many home runs and walking too many batters.  He hasn’t fared much better since being demoted to Sacramento.  He’s walking too many batters and giving up 1.3 home runs per 9 innings.   The Cubs needed a major league ready arm in return for 2/5ths of their starting rotation and Straily has upside as a starting pitcher that is able to miss bats.  The Cubs got lucky when they traded Feldman last season for the up and down Jake Arrietta and maybe they can resurrect Straily’s career the same way.  He’s still young and is on the radar in fantasy leagues as a source of K’s.  

Billy McKinney is an outfielder that is a bit further off from becoming a top major league prospect.  He’s a left handed hitter that played well last year in his first taste of pro ball, but has struggled a little this season at High A Stockton.  I liked him during the draft in 2013 because he has a really pretty swing.  I’m not sure how he fits into the Cubs future plans, but he could very well be in the majors in a few years as an outfielder with a plus bat and some speed.  

The Old Player To Be Named Later:   So it looks like the Cubs also get a prospect that is yet to be named.  I expect the Cubs to pick an upside arm from the lower levels of the A’s minor leagues as they could use some future bullpen arms.  

In short I think this deal works best for the A’s when compared to the potential deal that had been rumored for a while between the A’s and the Rays.  Two years of Samardzija is better than one year of David Price, especially when you factor in the addition of Jason Hammel.  Samardzija and Hammel landing in Oakland is as good as it gets for two National League pitchers that were traded to the American League in the middle of the season.  As for Addison Russell he goes from a situation that looked like he had a clear path to the major leagues as early as next season to a minor league system that’s loaded and he will have to fight his way to the Major Leagues.  

 

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Fantasy Basketball: 2014 NBA Draft Reaction

 

Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images

Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images

 

Best Fits:

Andrew Wiggins Kansas/Cleveland Cavaliers 1st Overall:  The Cavs have failed miserably in recent drafts to find a running mate for Kyrie Irving.  Dion Waiters has proven time and time again that it just doesn’t work when he shares the backcourt with Kyrie.  Anthony Bennett was an abject failure in his first year in the league after being picked 1st overall in 2013.  The Cavs got a bit unlucky in 2012 picking 4th in that draft.  They just missed the perfect player to pair with Kyrie in Bradley Beal who went 3rd overall to the Wizards.  We all know what the partnership of Beal and Wall looked like last year in D.C.  Then last year they hit the lottery in a bad draft.  Bennett seemed to be the best fit as a scoring power forward prospect with some range and then his rookie year happened.  Well all that is in the past as the Cavs hit the lottery in the right year this time.  There were as many as four players that could have been argued as the best overall prospect in the 2014 draft, but almost none had the upside that Andrew Wiggins has.  Wiggins will come into the league with freak athleticism and a better than average jump shot to go along with his next level defensive skills.  He should fill up the stat sheet from day one even though he won’t be a ball dominant player in the Cavs’ offense.  In a few years he could be the entire focus of the Cavs offense if everything develops the right way.  With Kyrie resigned this could be the beginning of a rebirth in Cleveland.

Jabari Parker Duke/Milwaukee Bucks 2nd Overall:  The Bucks were desperate for a face of the franchise and they couldn’t have done any better than getting Parker in the 2 slot.  I feel for last year’s head coach Larry Drew who was a good soldier and helped the team tank all the way up to the second pick in the loaded 2014 draft.  Drew was fired after the Bucks had already traded for Jason Kidd from the Brooklyn Nets.  Now Kidd gets to look smart as he unleashes the NBA ready Parker on the Bucks’ opponents.  Parker may be slowed down in his year one production by the shoot first point guard play of Brandon knight, but I expect that to work itself out over time.  Parker is the closest thing to Carmelo Anthony to come into the league since Anthony left Syracuse early.  He will be a beast for years to come so don’t hesitate to draft him even in year one.

Julius Randle Kentucky/Los Angeles Lakers 7th Overall: The Lakers had to be jumping for joy when Randle fell to them at 7 in the 2014 NBA draft.  Randle could have easily gone in the top three if any of those teams had needed a power forward that is going to bang and fight his way to a double double almost every night.  He’s a man’s man.  He will fight for every rebound and actually knows how to box out because he can’t rely on superior leaping ability or wing span.  He’s been compared to Zach Randolph in the draft process and that seems pretty spot on especially if he can develop a mid-range jumper to go with his finishing in the paint.  He should score and rebound right away with the Lakers’ front court minutes up for grabs, but he may lack some defensive statistical production until he learns how to defend in the NBA.

Elfrid Payton Louisiana Lafayette/Orlando Magic (via trade w/ Phil.) 10th Overall: The Magic looked like a team without a plan last year when they selected Victor Oladipo 4th overall and then didn’t know whether to play him at the point or at the two-guard.  It looks like they finally made a decision in the off season that Oladipo is better off at the 2.  Payton being traded for on draft day cements that thought as he’s a point guard all the way.  He’s young, fast, long and is already a very good defender. Just like most point guards that come into the league he has a bit of a broken jump shot.  That being said he and Oladipo probably form the best young defensive backcourt in the game.  There should be steals and fast breaks galore with these two and the fourth overall pick in 2014 Aaron Gordon in the fold.  I like the fit for Payton with the Magic especially with them waiving Jameer Nelson recently.

Doug McDermott Creighton/Chicago Bulls (via trade w/Denver.) 11th Overall: The Bulls lacked shooters last year and it really hurt when they got to the playoffs.  Mike Dunleavy and Tony Snell were hot and cold much of the year.  When they were cold the Bulls were a tough team to watch as teams would just double Noah and Boozer without worrying about wide open threes.  As long as the Bulls don’t get Carmelo Anthony in free agency McDermott has clear path to minutes and shots.  He should immediately help fantasy owners in three pointer made, shooting percentages and scoring.  Bill Simmons mentioned it on draft night and it was so true that this trade was rumored for months before the draft and then it actually happened on draft night.

Shabazz Napier UCONN/Miami Heat (via trade w/Charlotte) 24th Overall:  Napier was so fun to watch in UConn’s run to a championship that it’s funny to think that he fell all the way down to 24th overall.  The complete opposite can be said of the point guard play in Miami in their finals loss to the San Antonio Spurs.  The Heat were rumored to be all over Napier and they got their man in a trade with the Hornets.  Napier should play big minutes right away and help the Heat by making smart passes as well as being able to drive into the paint to help free up LeBron and Wade.  Of course his value and fit have a lot to do with what happens with the big three in free agency, but for now it looks to be the second best fit for a rookie point guard.

Kyle Anderson UCLA/San Antonio Spurs 30th Overall: Anderson to the Spurs made so much sense that it made some people sick just to say it.  A high basketball IQ point forward who can dish the basketball as well as score it in different ways.  He’s like a point guard stuck in a 6’9″ slow body.  On any other team I would have probably said to look elsewhere, but with the Spurs he could find himself in  Boris Diaw’s sooner than later.  He’ll be a sneaky bet to help you in your assists category if he gets some rookie year minutes.  Just don’t ask Pop if he’s gonna play.  Pop doesn’t like questions.

K.J. McDaniels Clemson/Philadelphia 76ers 2nd pick of the 2nd Round: So what was it the 76ers lacked last year?  Oh yeah, DEFENSE!  McDaniels was looked at leading up to the draft as a mid 1st round pick that could immediately see minutes as an elite wing defender that can finish at the basket.  He slipped to the 2nd round and the 76ers and fantasy basketball players look to be the beneficiaries.  The 76ers lacked anyone that could lock down an opposing player last year and were forced into a ton of shoot outs.  McDaniels could see big minutes right away and should see an uptick in scoring production if the rest of the 76ers defense continues to struggle.

Cleanthony Early Wichita State/New York Knicks 4th pick of the 2nd Round: Cleanthony Early was looked at as a late first round pick that would contribute right away for a contender.  Instead he fell to the top of the second round where the Knicks got an excellent piece for their team.  The Knicks struggled at the small forward position last year when Carmelo Anthony would slide over to the four.  Sometimes Tim Hardaway Jr. would be asked to play the three and he struggled mightily when he was asked to.  Metta World Peace was supposed to give the Knicks the freedom to use Anthony as a stretch four, but that didn’t work out.  Early can score inside or outside and has a 6’11” wingspan on his 6’7″ body that allows him to rebound well and defend even bigger fours.  He could see minutes right away with the Knicks’ frontcourt a bit of a question mark and he would benefit greatly if Carmelo would happen to sign elsewhere.

Honorable Mention: Dante Exum Australia/Utah Jazz 3rd Overall: I’m a big believer in Exum’s talent, but the fit wasn’t the best for me, at least for year one.  He goes to a team with a young point guard already in tow in Trey Burke and they also have two other players that look to be part of their plans in Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks that like to be in possession of the ball.  I think it will take some time for the Jazz to figure out how to use all of their pieces and in the meantime it will hurt Exum’s year one production.  Honestly, I would have loved to see him land somewhere else, but I still think he’s a top three pick in dynasty leagues.  Huge upside!

Make sure you check back next week when I’ll put some words together about some rookies that may be able to fight their way to meaningful minutes and which high upside rookies you should target in your dynasty drafts.

My Pre 2014 NBA Draft Thoughts can be found here.

You can catch all of my latest podcasts by grabbing the feed (http://www.coachesser.com/feed/podcast/) or by subscribing on Itunes and Stitcher Radio.

 

 

 

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Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook: Crockett Gillmore

Crockett Gillmore

 

I’ve been talking about Crockett Gillmore a lot on Twitter and on Podcasts, but I thought it was time to put all of my thoughts about him down in one place.  You may say I obsessed over Crockett Gillmore a bit in the lead up to the 2014 NFL draft.  I’m a draft nut and love to semi-scout the prospects and project where they may end up.  I especially pay attention to positions that are a big need to my beloved New York Giants and the tight end position was just begging for some attention this year.

At first my Giants’ tight end hopefuls seemed like they would come from a very shallow pool.  The only tight ends I really knew much about were the top five prospects plus some tight ends I had used playing college football DFS.  I knew there was a big drop off after the 5th overall tight end, but Gillmore kept intriguing me.  I mocked the first three rounds of the draft over and over again and never once did the Giants draft a tight end in the top three rounds, and never once did any of the top five prospects make it to the fourth round.

I kept hoping the Giants had caught a glimpse of Gillmore plying his trade when they were scouting their second round pick Weston Richburg at Colorado State.  While it would have been nice to see Gillmore in a Giants’ uniform, his landing spot in Baltimore is almost as good as it gets for a developing tight end.  The Ravens had finally given up on Ed Dickson after the 2013 season and signed the oft-injured Owen Daniels in free agency to be their second tight end.  Incumbent starter Dennis Pitta is a favorite of many in yearly fantasy football leagues, but has missed time over the years with various injuries and is best suited playing in the slot or as the move tight end.

Besides having a very promising depth chart the Ravens also hired the extremely tight end friendly Gary Kubiak as their offensive coordinator to replace Jim Caldwell.  Kubiak has often been able to make multiple tight ends fantasy relevant in his offenses.  If the Ravens do go to more two tight end formations, which would help their sub-par offensive-line, Gillmore could get a lot more playing time then I am expecting.  If Kubiak has a nice long tenure as an offensive coordinator Gillmore could become redraft relevant in a few short years.

Now a little bit more about Gillmore:

Crockett Gillmore is a big tight end.  He doesn’t look that big on tape because he wore the number 10, but don’t be fooled.

He’s a bit raw as a tight end prospect because he’s only recently converted from playing  defensive end.  Some of the attributes that made him a defensive end give him a huge advantage as a tight end.  His long arms and huge hands show up in his game tapes as well as his high lights as he plucks the ball easily away from defenders.  When you watch his game tape he shows well, but he didn’t dominate the competition.  He’s a little slow, but moves smoothly though his routes and looks to have decent hips that allow him to make adjustments on the ball.  He shows great concentration making catches in traffic without a problem and was even used out wide and in the slot to create some mismatches for Colorado State.  When he was used in those spots his lack of quickness and agility showed as he didn’t have any shake in his game.

I was almost embarrassed that I thought Gillmore would be available in the fourth and fifth round of the draft after he was taken by the Ravens in the third.  Imagine the embarrassment of the coaches who didn’t select him to the Senior Bowl when he got the battle field promotion for shining at the East West Shrine game and then blew it up at the Senior Bowl.  I really can’t blame the coaches that much because Gillmore’s stats paled in comparison to some of the top tight ends in college football, but he was part of a unit that blocked for the leading rusher in the Mountain West Conference.  For a list of all of his accomplishments at CSU visit here.

The best part of Crockett Gillmore in dynasty fantasy circles is he’s still a bit of a secret.  He’s not talked about in the same breath as Troy Niklas and C.J. Fiedorowicz, but he has a very similar upside and may even have a better fit than Niklas.  While Niklas and Fiedorwicz are going in the first four rounds of rookie drafts in dynasty fantasy football leagues, Gillmore is going undrafted more than not.  In one rookie draft that I was a part of three Packer tight ends went before Gillmore even got a sniff.

In dynasty start ups he gets no love as well.  The whole point of dynasty teams is to have a sustainable franchise that will perform well year after year.  Gillmore could be a key piece to that as a bottom layer to your tight end roster.  You can build your tight end corps around some tight ends at the top of their game like, Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis and take Crockett Gillmore and C.J. Fiedorwicz late and hope one of the two hits it big as an every down tight end that ends up as a huge part of a red zone offense.

In redraft leagues he can be ignored for now.  Of course you have to keep him in the back of your mind in case Daniels and Pitta get injured, but don’t expect any breakout games like Jordan Reed had in 2013.  He’s going to get better and better as he gets used to playing the position, but don’t get him confused with an ex-basketball player that’s going to be a glorified wide receiver masquerading as a tight end.  His absolute upside is a very good impression of Heath Miller.  I’ll take Heath Miller in his prime any day of the week on my roster.

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Fantasy Football: Late Round Wide Receivers

3 and Out Podcast Saturday night I joined Chris Heil (@thegrizzlybeard) and Justin Lonero (@lonero_justin) on the 3 and Out Podcast for FakePigskin.com to talk about some of the options fantasy football owners will have in the later rounds at the wide receiver position.  We talked about Hakeem Nicks, Robert Woods, Dwayne Bowe, Marvin Jones, and Tavon Austin.  While they may not be sexy names they are wide receivers you may have to decide between late in drafts.  All three of us have opinions of who we like and it made for a great show.

 

Listen Here: http://www.fakepigskin.com/podcast/

Rankings and ADP At The Time of The Podcast Taping

Names FantasyPros ECR Rankings MyFantasyLeague.com ADP
Tavon Austin 45 36
Hakeem Nicks 42 43
Marvin Jones 44 50
Dwayne Bowe 34 49
Robert Woods 59 62
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