Monthly Archives: February 2014

Home/2014/February

Cordarrelle Patterson Returns

If you won a few fantasy football leagues last year you more than likely had either Josh Gordon or Alshon Jeffrey on your roster to thank.  While they didn’t lead the percentages among NFL players to be on fantasy championship rosters, that belonged to Jamaal Charles with Peyton Manning close behind, they were by far the best “value draft picks” of the season.  Alshon Jeffrey may have even slipped through the cracks in some 10 team league drafts where you don’t have an opportunity to start three wide receivers and made some waiver wire troller extremely happy.

The reason I think you should thank Gordon or Jeffrey before patting Charles or Manning on the back is because of value.  The value that comes with massively out performing your average draft position.  This massive value spike is hard to contend with for an entire season.  It was even harder to contend with in daily fantasy football on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings where Gordon and Jeffrey were playing so far above the invested value that you couldn’t win any money without them in your lineups.

I’m not the first to talk about Gordon and his massive value last season.  Here Michael Fabiano wrote about Josh Gordon’s value in his season ending awards on NFL.com.

Draft value of the year

Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns:
Gordon wins his second Guru Award, as he was a steal in 2013 drafts. Remember, he was suspended for the first two weeks of the season due to off-field issues — that made his stock fall in most leagues (ADP: 132.68). Gordon would finish the fantasy season tied with Calvin Johnson for the most fantasy points among wideouts.

While I wasn’t the first to talk about his value last year, I may be the first to talk about the fact that he may not come close in 2014 to hitting his ADP value. Don’t get me wrong Gordon is a supremely talented wide receiver, but he is currently going off the board in the middle of round one in fantasy football drafts. He’s going in the right spot based on last year’s production, but can he really match or outplay last year’s league leading numbers. I am not willing to bet on it with the situation in Cleveland.

Gordon is going in the top tier of fantasy wide receivers right now, Alshon Jeffrey is not too far behind him going in the third to fifth round of drafts. Jeffrey started slow last year, but really came on and became a huge fantasy football weapon. His ability to high point the ball always made him an intriguing pick, but his polished route running coupled with his run after the catch ability made him a break out star. Jeffrey even gets consistent carries as a runner on short reverses that keep his stat ticker climbing in the right direction.

Jeffrey wasn’t Jay Cutler‘s favorite target early on in the season and didn’t really get on track until Josh McCown took over for the injured Jay Cutler in the middle of the season. McCown and Jeffrey’s chemistry was magical to fantasy owners as Jeffrey quickly went from a fantasy bench warmer to a must start. His record breaking performances haven’t gone unnoticed as you can see by my aforementioned ADP for him at this point in the off season. His ADP is only going to climb over the off season as other wide receivers may be hurt by free agent moves (Eric Decker) or draft picks.  Speaking of climbing, a buddy of mine on Twitter, Matt Lane, and a writer for FakePigSkin.com took Jeffrey in the first round of one of the early off season Draft Masters @FantasyTaz has put together.  While I told him that was too early for my liking I can completely understand falling in love with him based on his upside.

The traits that Jeffrey and Gordon share are that they are huge physical receivers that can run, Gordon can run fast more-so than Jeffrey.  Those physical traits used to be very rare to come by, but the wide receiver class of 2012 had quite a few receivers that fit that body type.  In contrast the wide receiver crop from the 2013 NFL Draft was missing those big, physical, speed receivers.  There was plenty of short speed receivers like Tavon Austin, the first wide receiver taken in the first round by the St. Louis Rams, but the big outside marquee guys were few and far between.

[soliloquy id="968"]

The only wide receivers taken in the 2013 draft that came close to fitting the bill of the big, fast, physical wide receiver prototype in my opinion were DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson.  Hopkins had made his name lining up on the opposite side of the field from Sammy Watkins at Clemson University and tearing through tough defensive backfields like LSU.  While Patterson was a junior college phenom that moved on to Tennessee and became the most explosive offensive football player in the SEC.  Hopkins hand size was discussed more than when Hakeem Nicks was coming out of the University of North Carolina, while Patterson was described as a raw play-maker that was as far from a polished wide receiver that had been considered for the first round in a long, long time.

Hopkins had a few nice games to start the year in Houston as Matt Shaub looked to have plenty of confidence in the rookie, but after week number three the rest of the season was pretty much un-ownable in fantasy leagues.  The resurgence of Andre Johnson and the unpredictability of the quarterback position in Houston pretty much soured the back end of his rookie year.  Hopkins didn’t score a touchdown after week number seven and didn’t top one-hundred yards after week two.  I think the continued presence  of Andre Johnson and the tailspin of a second half of a season should be able to keep him as a good value pick for next year.  I believe he has the ideal skills set to out play his draft position if the right quarterback ends up in Houston.

Cordarrelle Patterson of the Minnesota Vikings is the type of wide receiver that makes fantasy players drool.  He can score when ever he touches the ball.  He scores on kick offs, he scores on hand-offs, and he scores on receptions.  The only way he doesn’t score is when the Vikings decide not to give him the ball, which happened a lot last season.  The #FreePatterson chanting on Twitter was almost becoming a grass roots effort to make the Vikings fun to watch.

The only excuse for the Vikings not to use Patterson more has to be the fact that he was as raw as advertised when coming out.  If you look at Patterson’s numbers through out the year his one big performance as a wide receiver came in a bit of an outlier type game as his production was in the snow against a shell shocked Baltimore Ravens’ Defense.  Beyond that one game that really was a product of a missed tackle that led to a huge catch and run touchdown, Patterson was not all that impressive as a pass catcher.  His return skills and ability to run the ball once in possession of it was off the charts.

The reason I look beyond his receiving tape from last season is because of his after the catch running skills and his build.  Patterson is 6’2″ 220 pounds and is a nightmare to try and tackle in the secondary.  He measures up well to last year’s break out wide receivers Josh Gordon who is 6’3″ and 225 pounds and Alshon Jeffrey 6’3″ 216 pounds (that must be typo from the Bears.)  and actually is a more explosive runner than Jeffrey.  This off season is huge for Patterson because that’s where Alshon Jeffrey did all the work that led to his breakout 2013 season.

While Jeffrey had Brandon Marshall pushing him day in and day out in the off season, I’m not sure Greg Jennings is doing the same for Patterson.  I hope Jennings is taking Patterson under his wing and showing him how a top level wide receiver works, but at this point I just don’t know if that’s the case.  If not, hopefully he hired the right coaches for the off season.

Either way I’m betting on Patterson to make the leap to almost elite this season.  He should easily outplay his draft position as long as your league doesn’t get too smart in the off season.  I am willing to take him as my second wide receiver in drafts at this point as long as I have a strong back up plan in place with some high floor-type receivers as my WR3 and WR4.  If you nab Patterson any where after the fourth round you should be able to collect excellent returns on your investment.

 

 

 

The Fantasy Baseball Black Book

The twists and turns of life often bring you back to a very familiar place.  The twists and turns of my life brought me to  Somerville, New Jersey to raise my children in my wife’s home town.  While my wife was very familiar with the surroundings of this part of New Jersey, I was not.  I often got route 202 confused with route 206 and became even more confused when it turned out they become the same road just north of Somerville.

I clung to sports to get my bearings and started coaching in the local high school.  Football and Wrestling filled my days and nights and I started to master all the  little ins and outs of the towns here in Somerset County.   Then my wife became pregnant with triplets and my life completely changed.  Instead of teaching and coaching I was changing diapers and making formula.  Instead of watching game film or scouting opponents I was watching Sesame Street and going to well visits.

While I was talking to one of my friends from High School on Facebook they mentioned that a mutual friend was in a similar situation and lived relatively close to me.  That mutual friend turned out to be Joe Pisapia, author of The Fantasy Baseball Blackbook, and someone I hadn’t spoken to since graduation.  I looked Joe up on Twitter and we reconnected.  It proved to be a very small world.  We had grown up only a few blocks from each other and now we lived in neighboring towns.  It was amazing how much we had in common.  We both married amazing women who had become the major bread winners in the household and had daughters that we stayed home to take care of.  We both were infatuated with fantasy sports and immediately started picking each other’s brain on theories and strategies.BlackBook14Cover

I was primarily involved in the fantasy football world and had been away from fantasy baseball for a number of years when we reconnected.  Joe, on the other hand, had been writing about fantasy baseball on multiple sites and was on SiriusXM Radio on the Going 9 Baseball show along with another childhood friend Dan Strafford.  Not only was Joe posting articles and talking baseball on the radio, but he was author to the Number 1 Fantasy Baseball book on Kindle.  The ideas and theories behind Joe’s book brought me back to Fantasy Baseball in 2013 and I couldn’t be happier.  It made me look at rankings and the draft in an all new way and actually had me right back up on top of the leagues I was in my first year back since the late 90’s.

If you don’t believe me or are skeptical you should listen to some friends in the industry who think just as highly of The Fantasy Baseball Black Book as I do.

“Pisapia’s ideas and concepts on relative value are some of the smartest things I’ve read on this topic in all my years playing fantasy. All the things you think you know about fantasy are going to be colored and changed once you read this.”– Will Carroll, Lead Writer for Sports Medicine, Bleacher Report Member, BBWAA and PFWA

“Joe will have you looking at your player rankings in a whole new
way… and it will help put you ahead of the curve.” – Chris McBrien Host, “Dear Mr. Fantasy” Podcast

 

I was so excited about Joe’s latest book that I wanted share it with as many friends and followers as I could.  Joe was nice enough to provide me an excerpt from his latest book so that my readers and followers can see what they’re missing by only buying a fantasy magazine from the local drug store.  Here’s some of what the new book covers.

The new and expanded 2014 edition includes:

* Over 400+ player profiles including minor league prospects
* Expanded RPV for all players in varying formats (roto & points)
* 2014 Draft Strategy for all formats including Daily Fantasy Baseball leagues
* Chapters on being a commissioner, most overrated/underrated players, making trades and managing your team, and the answers the five biggest questions in fantasy this season
* More Dynasty and Auction League content than ever before

Here’s the excerpt, and don’t forget to click on the link to buy The Fantasy Baseball Black Book 2014 Edition.

By Joe Pisapia the creator of the revolutionary statistic RPV (Relative Position Value) and the author of The Fantasy Baseball Black Book 2014 Edition. Available on Amazon Kindle Store and iTunes for Apple Devices. Check out www.fantasyblackbook.com for your fantasy baseball news and listen to him on Sirius210/XM87 Fantasy Sports Channel Going 9 Baseball Every Thursday 8-10PM EST.

 

RPV – Relative Position Value

The age old argument in fantasy sports has always been whether or not to value position scarcity. Many have had theories on both ends of the spectrum. The biggest problem is neither side has been able to quantify their stance on the subject. That is until the Fantasy Baseball Black Book created the statistic Relative Position Value otherwise known as RPV. What RPV does is allow you to compare players to their peers at their respective positions with weighted values based on their production. It also gives you a look into each position as an entire entity to see just how valuable catchers are compared to second basemen as a whole. Best of all, it is completely adaptable to all formats, styles, scoring systems. RPV is adjustable to your specific league style and depth of talent. It’s the single most useful draft tool and player evaluation system available to fantasy players. And for any roto league players skeptical of this stat translating into your format, get ready to see fantasy in a whole new light.

RPV goes so much deeper than just measuring out league average production at a position. That really doesn’t help you much because all that gives you is a medium baseline to work off of and stay above. But what does that mean? It doesn’t weigh the players value above that baseline nor weigh the elite at the position versus the elite at other positions.

For example, let’s pretend the league average second basemen offensive stat line is: .260BA/70R/10HR/70RBI/7SB

The “experts” who use this logic insist that Player X is better than the league average and Player Y is under the league average so therefore Player Y is not valuable. Here is the major problem with this approach; the league average holds 30 players at second base. Fantasy leagues play 12-20 second basemen every week (depending on format and MINF slots). Therefore, the “league average” concept is obsolete. The fantasy league average is what is applicable based upon the depth of your personal league. My 24 team dynasty league is a totally different set of circumstances than my 16 team points league or 12 team roto league. You must have an adjustable tool to measure players in all situations.

Let us take things a step further. It’s not enough to know the statistical average fantasy points of the top 12 second basemen over the last three years (roughly 400 points). You need to have some way of quantifying how much better (or worse) a given player is compared to the next guy available at his position on draft day. I call this approach Relative Position Value of a player or RPV. This theory is simple to grasp and easy to utilize when creating your tiers for your draft.

To begin using RPV, you’ll need a method that will assign a numerical value to each player that reflects his performance. Any single measurement method will do; however, it is most easily communicated using fantasy points (or projected fantasy points) which measure a player’s true overall production. However, just because we are using points does not mean the result is not applicable to roto formats. In fact, it can be a huge asset when creating your draft strategy in roto leagues. You just have to adjust the point value by adding more weight to stolen bases and being aware of positive and negative batting averages (above/below .275BA as the benchmark). On the pitching end, you increase the value of saves and awareness of positive/negative ERA (3.75ERA being the threshold). We will investigate roto RPV further as the chapter continues.

With the basic point value system Robinson Cano is the highest point getter at second base with a 550 point average over the last three seasons. The average over that same period for the top 16 second basemen is 375 points. Note that we are looking at Cano versus a grouping of 16, but of course the number can be adjusted for any depth necessary.

The formula to determine the RPV or the percentage in which a player is better than the fantasy league average is:

(Individual Player Point ValueFantasy League Average of the Position) ÷ Fantasy League Average of the Position = RPV

In the case of our example:

(Robinson Cano’s 550 −The Average 2B points 375) ÷ 375 = .46

So what does this .46 number mean? It means Cano is +46% better than the league fantasy league average second basemen. Therefore his RPV is +46%.

RPV can also show a negative impact. That would mean a player whose point total is below the position average (the 375 point threshold in this circumstance). RPV lets us see not only the negative affect of these players, but also the extent of that negative impact. For instance, let’s plug in Omar Infante’s 3 year average of 320 points into the equation.

Infante’s 320pts – 375 FLA (Fantasy League Avg) ÷ 375 = −.15 or −15%RPV

This means that should you end up starting Omar Infante in your league that you are down -15% in production at that given position relative to what the average second basemen in your league will achieve. Therefore, you must make up ground at another position just to keep up with the league average at an overall team level. The goal is to be at or above the average at every available position in order to maximize each available roster spot. Bill James once said if you had a league average player at every position you would make the playoffs in MLB every year. That would be accurate in fantasy terms as well. However, what we want to do is get to the playoffs with a real chance to win. In lay terms, you want to squeeze as much juice from every single orange you have in your crate so that your glass is as full as it can be, or at least fuller than the guy next to you. You have a certain number of finite active roster slots in your lineup and getting the most out of them each week is the key to success.

RPV IN THEORY

For an example, let’s take a look at the RPV leaders at each position over the last three years using the standard scoring system. Again this is for a field of 16 deep at each position. The second RPV in brackets

[X%] is for a 12 team roto league pool with expanded rosters (2C/CINF/MINF/5OF etc). The three year leaders by position are:

(FL AVG Points) =Fantasy League Average points

[RL AVG] = Roto League Average points

C Carlos Santana {398pts} (289 FL AVG pts) +38%RPV

[based on 256 roto league average points Santana = +55% roto RPV]

1B Prince Fielder {522pts} (418FL AVG) +25%RPV [386 RL AVG = +35%]

2B Robinson Cano {550pts} (375FL AVG) +46% [356 RL AVG = +55%]

3B Miguel Cabrera {636pts} (375FL AVG) +70% [346 RL AVG = +85%]

SS Ben Zobrist {443pts} (358 FL AVG) +24% [330 RL AVG = +34%]

*ALL ROTO OF RPV based on a 360 point ROTO AVG*

OF #1 (440) – Mike Trout (*only two full seasons*) (601) +37% [+70%]

OF #2 (376) – Alex Rios (424) +8% [+17%]

OF #3 (319) – Alfonso Soriano (369) +10% [+3%]

* #4 and #5 OF for roto only

*OF #4 (274) – Austin Jackson (342) [-5%]

*OF #5 (240) B.J. Upton 286 [-21%]

*SP RPV values hold true in all formats*

(w/ a secret points league advantage discussed later in this chapter)

SP#1 (522) – Clayton Kershaw (669) +28%

*SP #2 (409) – C.J. Wilson (440) +8%

*SP #3 (337) – A.J. Burnett (372) +10%

*SP #4 (291) – Mike Minor (311) +7%

*SP #5 (256) – Ryan Vogelsong (269) +5%

RP #1 (321) – Craig Kimbrel (522) +63%

*RP #2 (241) – Glen Perkins (264) +10%

One of the most interesting things about looking at 3-year averages is that the “best” player at each position is not necessarily the one that jumps to mind. Ben Zobrist for instance is not the player Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki is, but Zobrist does produce consistently and he stays on the field regularly. In points leagues, Carlos Santana’s +38% is higher than Mike Trout’s 37%, but clearly there is no universe Santana goes before Trout nor should he. What it does illuminate is that relatively speaking, Santana’s value based on the positional depth of catcher is extraordinary. It also shows how valuable a catcher who plays more frequently just 5 games a week. We

Notice that for the outfield and pitching positions I’ve broken things down into individual roster spots, even though the players who are eligible at these positions are all drafted from a single pool. I think this is appropriate when considering RPV, because, not all three outfielders on a fantasy points league squad represent the same level of quality or performance. Thinking this way, you can see why drafting a solid number one outfielder is important, but once you have one, the rest of your outfield slots can be filled later in the draft.

There is a distinct difference in the points and roto RPV numbers. You can also clearly see when the talent pool expands to a 12 team roto league with 5 OF/CINF/MINF etc. the percentages expand. What also grows is the disparity between the top and bottom numbers. You also see how even the best 4th and 5th outfielders are in the negative pool making outfielders a higher priority in roto. The OF pool becomes a matter of supply and demand. There are 90 active OF playing a night in MLB (3OF x 30 teams). In a 16 team points there are 48 (3 OF x 16 teams). That is about half the total talent pool. In roto, you normally have 5 active X 12 teams which is a pool of 60. That is 2/3 of the talent pool and I am not counting how many you will see used in DH or UT lots. That can easily bump that number to 70 or more out of the 90 available.

In 12 team roto leagues, Mike Trout’s value skyrockets as it should. OF is where you will get the majority of stolen base production and that is crucial to roto leagues. Another clear leap is at catcher. Santana’s RPV also increases a great deal based on the expanded catcher pool and lack of production at the bottom third of the top 24 catchers. As for Miguel Cabrera, well he is still equally brilliant in all formats.

Michael Kay Vs. Mike Francesa

Michael Kay Shoots Peas at The Pope of NY Sports Radio

Kay

Michael Kay opens his first show on YES network with a salvo at the the departed Mike Francesa.  Kay decided the high road was too tough when he took the simulcast reins at YES network and threw a Diet Coke bottle in the trash to symbolize his status as the new king of New York sports radio.  (Mike Francesa is famous for guzzling Diet Coke on his broadcasts.)  The jab didn’t go unnoticed as many fans were astonished at how petty Kay was in his first show in Francesa’s old time slot.

Let’s get this straight.  I am not a fan of either talking head.  If I’m being completely honest I’m not a big fan of the entire industry.   Even though I am not a fan, I still respect what they have accomplished in their careers, especially Mike Francesa.   Mike Francesa is idolized by sports fans all over the Tri-State area (New York, New Jersey, and Connceticut)  His throne looked to be in peril when his side kick, Chris “the Mad Dog” Russo left the show to start his own show on satellite radio, but Francesa managed to stay on top of the ratings.

Michael Kay has worked his way up from being a simple Yankee fan-boy sitting in the nose bleed seats at the old stadium to the cornerstone talent of the YES network.  His radio show for ESPN New York is their highest rated program and his ratings have been growing overall.  He has been nominated for over 20 Emmy’s and won 7 so obviously someone likes him.  I’m just not one of those people that like him.

MK and the Pope

If you live in the New York area you hear lots of stories about these two.  From the “He was dueche at a wedding for not taking pictures with people.”  To “He asked a professional athlete why he was making small talk with a janitor.”  I’ll let you figure out who is who, but either way you see what kind of people I am talking about.  The wedding story was never a big deal to me because maybe he didn’t want to take attention away from the bride and groom, or maybe he had a long day.  Who knows, but usually I will give the benefit of the doubt on stuff like that.  The other one was more troubling.  Asking someone why they talk to a stadium attendant says a lot about the individual.  If you can’t do anything for them or aren’t on their economic level then you are excrement.

There are a lot of things I don’t like about what they do at their day jobs as well.  I absolutely hate when Kay is teamed with Paul O’Neil in the booth and the two of them do shtick the entire broadcast.  I can’t stand his wooden interviews on Center Stage for Yes Network.  Francesa acts like hockey doesn’t exist unless a team is going for the Stanley Cup and then he only does the bare minimum for the hockey fans in the area.  Francesa is also brutal when it comes to being biased in favor of the Yankees when compared to the Mets.  My feelings aside, they both must be doing something very right because  they have a lot of fans.

They may be worshiped by the blue collar crowd that props up their ratings, but these two are the furthest thing from blue collar.  Francesa is most comfortable talking about the sport of kings or belittling callers for their ignorance.  Michael Kay registered at CitiBank for his wedding and asked for cash in lieu of gifts.  While many blue collar guys have just as much love for horse racing and soliciting money as these two, they just do it in very different ways.

While Francesa is visiting the stables and watching the horses he owns from the private boxes at Saratoga, Johnny Blue Collar is running to the OTB in between double shifts to try and hit the long shot in the 8th at the Meadowlands.

While Michael Kay is asking his rich friends to help pay for his wedding because he either owns too much or doesn’t trust their taste in gifts, ( Insert Derek Jeter gift package joke here.)  Johnny Blue Collar is running a yard sale where he selling some treasured wedding gifts to pay for his children’s orthodontia.

They are both elitist and at times petty, but in this latest battle Michael Kay made himself look silly.  Francesa is still the king.  His radio show is number one in the ratings and it’s not even close.  Kay recently said he was fine with being number two behind Francesa as long as he knew he was doing a better job, but he was quickly corrected by a caller who pointed out that Kay’s program is actually number seven in the ratings and not even in shouting distance.

 

 

Draft Master 1 Review

DraftMaster 1 Logo

Well Super Bowl Sunday may seem a little too early for the average Fantasy Football player, but for me and my friends it was perfect timing.  The Fantasy Taz, Jim Day, invited some of his buddies in the industry to participate in his 1st Draft Master of 2014 and I was lucky enough to get an invite.  Even though I was busy making Baked Rigatoni for buddies Super Bowl party and chasing my little ones around, I wasn’t going to let that stop me from seeing where this year’s break out stars may end up in next year’s drafts.  Without further build up here’s each roster and a link to each GM followed by some draft notes that are my opinion as we drafted Super Bowl Sunday.

@GrantGurtin

(1 – RB1)Charles, J
(12 – WR12)Brown, A
(1 – RB11)Murray, D
(12 – RB22)Gore, F
(1 – RB23)Moreno, K
(12 – TE5) Davis, V
(1 – WR32)Edelman, J
(12 – WR42)Blackmon, J
(1 – WR43)Williams, T
(12 – Def1)Seahawks, S
(1 – TE13)Walker, D
(12 – RB50)Davis, K
(1 – QB20)Flacco, J
(12 – QB23)Manuel, E
(1 – WR62)Givens, C
(12 – PK12)Gould, R

Grant was drafting directly in front of me and behind me in every round so I had to pay close attention to his roster construction to see who he may let slide to me.  Charles seems to be the consensus 1st overall pick in all the conversations I have had in the off season and Grant made that official here.  DeMarco Murray at the top of the 3rd was a nice pick.  Without rookies being involved all you can do is project O-lines that are going to be solid and the Cowboys have a nice base with Frederick and Smith.  Gore has been “SLOW” and steady the last few years, but this could finally be the off season he is usurped in the 49ers backfield.  If he isn’t then that pick is solid.  The same goes for Moreno who is a free agent after having a career year for the Broncos.  Vernon Davis at the bottom of the 6th is nice value, but Blackmon at the bottom of the 8th is a bit of a gamble.  You figure Blackmon’s ADP was around the 10th round with a 4 game suspension last off season.  With his suspension not yet lifted it’s tough to spend more than a 10th right now.  At the bottom of the 10th the Seahawks were the first D/ST taken.  No problem taking them in this format, but as you will see later other fine D’s went a few rounds later.

@coachesser

(2 – RB2) McCoy, L
(11 – WR11)Jones, J
(2 – QB2)Rodgers, A
(11 – RB21)Richardson, T
(2 – WR23)Wright, K
(11 – TE4)Gronkowski, R
(2 – RB30) Miller, L
(11 – TE8) Pitta, D
(2 – WR44)Williams, M
(11 – WR50)Hunter, J
(2 – RB43)Jennings, R
(11 – WR55)Jones, J
(2 – WR56)Streater, R
(11 – Def4)Panthers, C
(2 – PK1)Gostkowski, S
(11 – QB26)Bradford, S
LeSean McCoy is 1-B for me to start the year and there was no passing him up here.  At the bottom of the 2nd round I got my number 4 rated WR, Julio Jones, who happened to slip because MFL has his ADP way low.  I actually had to look him up alphabetically so that’s a heads ups he may slip in early MFL 10s.  At the top of the 3rd I got hand-cuffed by the clock and took Aaron Rodgers.  Again I was looking for an injured player whose ADP was low.  I couldn’t find Doug Martin fast enough so I went with Rodgers who I think is going to have a huge season after getting injured in 2013.  In the bottom of the 4th I had to take a gamble on T-Rich.  Gronk at the bottom of the 6th was a gamble, but I had a back-up plan with Pitta only two rounds later.  Pitta with Kubiak as OC should be fun.  Hunter in the 10th is one of those 2nd year wide receivers I expect to break out.  11-13 was all about value for me.  James Jones, Rashad Jennings, and Rod Streater are all guys that I expect to go much higher later in the year.

Jason Weiler – MidwestXpress

(3 – RB3) Peterson, A
(10 – WR10) Nelson, J
(3 – WR13) Garcon, P
(10 – WR22) Welker, W
(3 – WR24) Bowe, D
(10 – RB29) McFadden, D
(3 – QB8) Brady, T
(10 – WR41) Amendola, D
(3 – RB36) Ivory, C
(10 – RB42) Ridley, S
(3 – RB44) Wilson, D
(10 – TE19) Fleener, C
(3 – TE20) Cook, J
(10 – Def3) Rams, S
(3 – TE23) Pettigrew, B
(10 – PK11) Janikowski, S

Jason took AP with the third pick and I can’t argue much with that.  Last season it was tough to pass up on him at 1st overall and this year it looks like the 3rd overall pick is where it will be tough to pass on him.  Jason decided to go on a wide receiver run in rounds 2 through 5 that may leave him very vulnerable at RB.  McFadden in round 6 was his 2nd RB and there is no guarantee he starts any where next year.  Fleener, Cook and Pettigrew were all tight ends I was looking to avoid this early in the off-season.

@The_Street_FA

(4 – WR1) Johnson, C
(9 – QB1) Manning, P
(4 – RB12) Spiller, C
(9 – RB20) Stacy, Z
(4 – TE2) Thomas, J
(9 – WR31) Wallace, M
(4 – RB31) Tate, B
(9 – WR40) Maclin, J
(4 – RB37) Brown, A
(9 – TE12) Green, L
(4 – QB16) Manning, E
(9 – WR54) Moore, D
(4 – RB51) Greene, S
(9 – WR61) Tate, G
(4 – Def5) Bills, B
(9 – PK10) Tucker, J

The Street Free Agent went with my personal favorite Calvin Johnson at 4 overall.  I simply love that guy in Best Ball full point PPR leagues.  Manning in the 2nd slightly influenced my later pick of Rodgers.  Stacy in the fourth was huge value based on what we saw from Stacy last season.  i like the picks of Tate and Maclin in the 7th and the 8th.  Depending on where they end up they could be very valuable assets.  Ladarius Green in the 10th was one of those picks where the draft room groaned.  Many of us were targeting him just a few rounds later.  Golden Tate in the 14th could prove to be a great pick as well.  If he ends up in the right situation he could out play his draft position by leaps and bounds.

@RoadWarrior_FFO

(5 – WR2) Green, A
(8 – RB10) Bush, R
(5 – WR14) Johnson, A
(8 – QB3) Brees, D
(5 – RB24) Jackson, S
(8 – TE3) Witten, J
(5 – RB32) Woodhead, D
(8 – WR39) Nicks, H
(5 – WR45) Stills, K
(8 – RB41) Thomas, P
(5 – WR51) Wheaton, M
(8 – TE18) Gates, A
(5 – QB21) Palmer, C
(8 – RB58) Helu, R
(5 – Def6) Cardinals, A
(8 – PK9) Bailey, DDave went AJ Green at 5th overall and this could be a trend come later in the off season.  Reggie Bush is a tough one for me to figure out right now.  He could lose a lot more carries to Bell or the starters job all together, but if he plays like last year than he’s a great pick.  Brees at that spot in the 4th makes me feel like this was a true late off season mock draft.  Woodhead in the 7th was a little early for me, ut you can’t argue with his production in a full point PPR league.  Wheaton in the 11th round could be a break out 2nd year WR candidate.  That was a nice upside pick.

@ShanePHallam

(6 – TE1) Graham, J
(7 – RB9) Bell, L
(6 – RB13) Martin, D
(7 – RB19) Foster, A
(6 – WR25)Crabtree, M
(7 – WR30) Smith, T
(6 – QB9) Stafford, M
(7 – WR38) Harvin, P
(6 – RB38) Ellington, A
(7 – WR49)Sanders, E
(6 – WR52) Woods, R
(7 – RB49)Robinson, K
(6 – TE21) Ertz, Z
(7 – Def2) 49ers, S
(6 – PK2) Prater, M
(7 – QB24) Smith, GShane started off with Jimmy Graham at the 6th pick and that should be right around where he goes if he fully recovers from his foot injury this season.  The rest of Shane’s draft was awesome.  It was like he was working off his own list.  Value in every round.  I mean Harvin in the 8th round.  I guarantee he’s going in the top of the 3rd come late off season.  Ellington in the 9th.  Some of us were asleep at the wheel to let him pick off all this talent.  Good for Shane and hopefully this will help me set up some of my early off season MFL 10 drafts on myfantasyleague.com.

@AndrewMiley

(7 – RB4) Forte, M
(6 – WR9) Cobb, R
(7 – RB14)Bernard, G
(6 – RB18)Mathews, R
(7 – WR26)Patterson, C
(6 – WR29) Floyd, M
(7 – WR33)Shorts, C
(6 – QB11)Kaepernick, C
(7 – TE9) Olsen, G
(6 – QB15) Rivers, P
(7 – TE14) Allen, D
(6 – RB48)Michael, C
(7 – RB52)Stewart, J
(6 – WR60) Bailey, S
(7 – Def7)Buccaneers, T
(6 – PK8) Sturgis, CI really liked Andy’s draft as well.  There was value all over the place starting with Matt Forte in the 1st round.  Some of my favorite picks were Bernard in the 3rd, Patterson in the 5th, and Allen in the 11th.  I really like Bernard this season with Hue Jackson as his OC, and Patterson showed enough raw ability to make him look like a future top 6 receiver.  Allen is a guy I love and hope bounces back from a major hip injury.  Two potential top 10 QBs in the 8th and the 10th is nothing to sneeze at either.

@JDBeckler

(8 – WR3)Bryant, D
(5 – WR8)Fitzgerald, L
(8 – WR15)White, R
(5 – RB17)Vereen, S
(8 – RB25)Sproles, D
(5 – WR28)Colston, M
(8 – WR34)Austin, T
(5 – QB10)Griffin III, R
(8 – QB12)Wilson, R
(5 – RB40)Jackson, F
(8 – TE15)Eifert, T
(5 – TE17)Fauria, J
(8 – WR57)Smith, S
(5 – RB57)Richardson, D
(8 – Def8)Bengals, C
(5 – PK7)Bryant, MJohn definitely had a plan when he came into this draft. WR-WR was the way for him, and I like that plan down here, BUT I am not a huge fan of Fitzgerald over some of the WRs that were left on the board.  After going WR again in the 3rd, Beckler decided to go PPR RB back to back with Vereen and Sproles.  Vereen I love, but Sproles worries me.  He played injured last year and he needs to be healthy to perform.  In the 11th and 12th 2nd year TE were his guilty pleasure.  Eifert and Fauria are both guys that could make huge strides next year.  Nice gambles.

@FatKat52

(9 – RB5)Lynch, M
(4 – WR7)Decker, E
(9 – WR16)Jeffery, A
(4 – WR21)Hilton, T
(9 – RB26)Jones-Drew, M
(4 – QB7)Foles, N
(9 – RB33)Brown, D
(4 – WR37)Hartline, B
(9 – RB39)Blount, L
(4 – WR48)Cooper, R
(9 – TE16)Clay, C
(4 – WR53)Holmes, A
(9 – QB22)Tannehill, R
(4 – WR59)Jernigan, J
(9 – PK3)Dawson, P
(4 – Def11)Colts, IBruce went with Lynch in the 1st round and that’s a very solid pick.  Decker in the 2nd was a bit of a reach for me.  Jeffrey in the 3rd made up for it though.  Foles in the 6th was very nice value for a potential top 5 QB.  Donald Brown in the 7th and Blount in the 9th are two guys that need to wind up in the right spot in the off season to make them worthy of being drafted before the 10th round.  They could pan out though if put in the right situation.

@Fantasytaz

(10 – RB6)Lacy, E
(3 – WR6)Thomas, D
(10 – WR17)Cruz, V
(3 – RB16) Ball, M
(10 – RB27)Bell, J
(3 – QB6)Newton, C
(10 – WR35)Boldin, A
(3 – WR36)Jennings, G
(10 – TE10)Bennett, M
(3 – WR47)Jones, M
(10 – RB45)Lattimore, M
(3 – QB19)Romo, T
(10 – RB53)Rodgers, J
(3 – TE22)Daniels, O
(10 – PK4)Hauschka, S
(3 – Def10)Bears, CJim picked two of my favorite players in the 1st and 2nd rounds.  Eddie Lacy is a beast and the only thing that caps his potential is all the touchdowns that Aaron Rodgers wants to throw. Thomas was a steady force at the WR position in 2013 and I don’t see him slowing down any time soon with Manning still under center.  Victor Cruz was picked right around that same spot late in the off season last year, but injuries and the Giants O-line woes killed his year.  Big time candidate for a bounce back.  Ball was a bit of a gamble in the 4th, but if he gets to be the lead back in Denver then that’s a steal.  Newton in the 6th is an almost automatic.

@tequilability

(11 – WR4)Gordon, J
(2 – WR5)Marshall, B
(11 – RB15)Johnson, C
(2 – WR20)Allen, K
(11 – QB4)Ryan, M
(2 – RB28)Todman, J
(11 – RB34)Ingram, M
(2 – TE7) Reed, J
(11 – QB13)Cutler, J
(2 – QB14)Roethlisberger, B
(11 – QB17)Dalton, A
(2 – RB47)Hunter, K
(11 – RB54)Mendenhall, R
(2 – RB56)Brown, B
(11 – WR63)Patton, Q
(2 – PK6) Walsh, BDish went WR-WR and I love who he came out of the first two rounds with.  Gordon and Marshall can be a fantasy championship back bone.  Allen in the 4th might be a steal come later in the off-season.  Jordan Reed in the 8th was a nice pick, but I can’t explain or support taking four QBs in this format.  That’s just craziness when only 1 scores each week.

@bro1ncos

(12 – RB7)Rice, R
(1 – RB8)Morris, A
(12 – WR18)Jackson, V
(1 – WR19)Jackson, D
(12 – WR27)Hopkins, D
(1 – QB5)Luck, A
(12 – TE6)Cameron, J
(1 – RB35)Pierce, B
(12 – WR46)Randle, R
(1 – TE11)Wright, T
(12 – RB46)Williams, D
(1 – QB18)Smith, A
(12 – RB55)Rainey, B
(1 – WR58)Johnson, S
(12 – Def9)Chiefs, K
(1 – PK5)Zuerlein, G

@Bro1ncos went RB-RB at the bottom of the first and I didn’t love the picks.  Morris proved to not be worthy of a high top 14 pick in full point PPR leagues because he was so TD dependent his rookie year.  Rice is blaming injury for his lack of production, but it was a bit of that coupled with a very poor Baltimore O-line that held him back.  Rueben Randle in the 9th was an interesting pick because he could (and should) be the WR2 for the Giants after they let Nicks walk.  Vincent and DeSean Jackson were nice high variance WRs in the 3rd and 4th, but he should have come back with a consistent WR in the 5th instead of gambling on Hopkins.

Who Do You Think Rocked DraftMaster 1?

Fantasy Football Draft Prep

Wes Unseld

I finally am starting to realize how my father felt when his kids started to beat him at basketball.  My father was proud man.  In his younger days he was a very athletic burly individual who loved to play basketball in the yard with his boys.  He was a street kid from the Bronx who played a rough and tumble form of basketball. He played in the local Catholic Athletic League as an adult and sent many a friend’s father to the floor with his Wes Unseld like physicality.  

My father would play the same way against us, his kids, as he did any full grown adult.  Body blocks, broken fingers and road rash were regular occurrences.  He even dislocated a colleague’s elbow with a hard foul one Saturday afternoon.  The man probably thought he was going to shoot some friendly hoops with the boss and found out the hard way there was no such thing as friendly hoops in the Esser’s back yard.

My father’s skills started to diminish as we started to grow up.  He could no longer block my brother Frank’s shots because Frank had managed to perfect a high release jump shot with his long 6’3″ frame.  My brother Tom had started doing his best Pistol Pete impressions while running circles around the heavier and slower version of my father.  My father didn’t exactly take this turning of the tide in stride.  He quit.  Never to lose a game to his sons on the court he had built.

I recently started to realize my advantage in Fantasy Football keeper and dynasty leagues had started to slip like my father’s basketball skills.  My first round rookie picks were no longer sure things much like my father’s patented unblockable hook shot had become less automatic.  My leagues were getting better and more competitive just like the way my brothers developed their basketball games as they grew up.  My leagues that were once cake walks had become filled with stronger more determined competitors.  I could have retired with the belt like my father did, but I chose another path.

The tide has been turning the last few years in my fantasy football leagues.  I haven’t been as sharp at identifying rookies or realizing the potential of some second year players.  I found myself struggling to keep up with some of my younger foes who seemed to have the inside skinny on every drafted rookie and even the undrafted free agents that could be assets down the road.  I felt the floor shifting beneath me and realized I needed to take stock and focus on what I was missing.

I looked back at how I used to evaluate rookies and second year players.  I was a huge fan of college football and the draft process for as long as I can remember.  I would watch, and a lot of times bet, every game that was televised.  I was betting Fresno State and Middle Tennessee State while my friends thought the only teams that existed played in the Big East.  I would do mock drafts and big board the entire draft on notebook paper.  I eventually graduated to Excel sheets that my wife would help me build.

All that work paid off with a huge advantage in my keeper and dynasty leagues.  My knowledge of rookies would help me on draft day and was an even bigger advantage when it came to trades.  What looked like an even trade when it was made, would look like an all time steal just a few short years later.  The last few years my juggernaut teams have started to show some holes.  I was still winning and doing well, but clearly I was missing more than ever in rookie drafts.  In truth I felt like the Patriots of my dynasty leagues where some of my drafts were just a waste, yet I still managed to stay near the top.

I realized that I was never going to be able to be the college football/draft guy I was for a number of reasons.  The main reason was my Saturdays were now reserved for spending time with my wife and kids.  Saturdays are the days we go to pumpkin patches, petting zoos, Grandma and Grandpa’s house, and every other place you can think of.  My wife works long hours during the week and all she wants is to spend some time with me and our beautiful girls on the weekends.  How can I deny that and say that I need to watch Rutgers play Houston or Northern Illinois play Akron?  I can’t.

Tea-Party-Daddy-Girl-Tea-2

Not me-But you get the point

While I accepted that fact that I was going to have some limitations for the foreseeable future, I didn’t accept the fact that I couldn’t be as informed as I once was.  Luckily for me there is a wealth of knowledge and tools available on the internet.  Whether it’s a premium subscription to DLF or just listening to some more podcasts while my kids are napping I was going to figure out a method that got me back on my game.

The key for me was time management.  I needed to create or subscribe to the best Twitter list I could find.                      (@SigmundBloom’s NFL Draftniks is a great place to start.)  Once I had a list of writers and draft minds that I thought looked at prospects the same way I did, I narrowed down my focus.  If they tweeted they were high on a prospect I would add that prospect to my list of draft prospects and then go to work reading as much as I could and watching as much game film as I could get my hands on.

Example:

 

 

 

Draft Kings Lineup

Swag Dome Lineup

Wed Lineup

 

PG- A lot of choices tonight, but Kyrie has been coming on and has been playing the SG position where he can get into better spots to score.  Not in love with the price, but no PG on the Lakers can stay with him.

SF- Rudy Gay going against the team that gave up on him in less than a season.  I like the payback factor here and Gay has been a beast since coming back from an Achilles strain.

PF-Sullinger is a guy that can be maddening in DFS, but he had a huge game against the 76ers last time out so I am going to hope he keeps it up.

C-The  minutes restriction seems to be over Varejao and he is facing a depleted Laker front line.

F-Kyle Singler gets the start for the Pistons and should be able to hit above value pretty easily.

This lineup obviously fades all the big names on Draft Kings tonight which isn’t usually the best strategy, but this is the lineup that had the most upside for me.   Good luck everyone.

Go to Top